Sharp China with Bill Bishop

The discussion kicks off with China's new export controls on rare earths, provoking global concern. Trump's reaction highlights the stakes, questioning whether his tweets are strategic or merely trolling. Bill explains that China's clarifications on the controls might not ease worries. The hosts ponder if Xi's decision could be seen as a tactical error, possibly provoking a stronger US response. They also debate the implications of these measures on global supply chains and whether China is overplaying its hand in this high-stakes economic chess game.

A UK spy scandal unfolds as charges against two men are dropped, raising eyebrows about government reluctance to label China as an enemy. Political fallout ensues, casting doubt on Prime Minister Starmer's leadership. Meanwhile, the EU suggests tariff hikes against Chinese steel, and discussions about a trillion-dollar resolution to the US-China trade war spark skepticism. In a surprising twist, a 'China-linked plot' surfaces concerning communication disruptions in New York City, while the NBA reconnects with fans in Macao.

The hosts dive into the political dynamics surrounding TikTok's divestiture, highlighting why the deal could advantage ByteDance. They explore unresolved security concerns and the muted congressional response. Next, the discussion shifts to China's push for changes in U.S. Taiwan policy during trade talks, with potential ramifications for soybean farmers. Additionally, the new K Visa program aims to attract foreign tech talent, and there's an intriguing look at Jensen Huang's comments on China hawks and export controls tightening.

Tensions between Trump and Xi heat up as calls for future meetings emerge, potentially bringing some stabilization. The murky details of a TikTok sale raise eyebrows, with shifting reports and a spotlight on the algorithm. In a surprising turn, China’s purchases of Argentine soybeans leave US farmers on the sidelines. Meanwhile, a controversial Arcteryx fireworks display in Tibet triggers outrage and investigations. It’s a fascinating look at the intricate ties between the US and China.

The podcast dives into the intricacies of a potential deal to divest TikTok from ByteDance, unraveling the complexities of algorithm control and data operations. It addresses the regulatory challenges and political dynamics surrounding TikTok's fate in the US. The discussion shifts to Nvidia and the escalating chip tensions, revealing the impact of additional measures against PRC firms. The hosts also explore the evolving propaganda strategies employed by the CPC, alongside touches of cultural humor involving LeBron James and pigeon racing.

The recent military parade in Beijing grabs attention, featuring powerful leaders like Putin and Kim Jong-un. The hosts analyze China's provocative messaging and its implications for international relations. They delve into the quirky Labubu collectibles, noting its pop culture ties and authenticity concerns. Additionally, the podcast discusses the West's skepticism of China's neutrality in the Ukraine conflict and potential EU responses. Finally, they touch on the NBA's return to China and LeBron James’s presence in the People's Daily, reflecting on sports in China.

The discussion kicks off with insights from the SCO Summit, where Xi Jinping outlines the Global Governance Initiative and nurtures closer ties with India. The hosts navigate the intricate dynamics of India-China relations amid U.S. tensions. A dive into China's World War II narrative reveals how the Communist Party shapes historical interpretations for political gain. The talk also touches on a significant military parade in Beijing, trade policy shifts with potential tariffs from Mexico, and the evolving landscape of semiconductor regulations.

On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with Li Chenggang in Washington for another round of meetings with American negotiators. Topics include: Outreach to soybean farmers and rumors of Boeing purchases, why the PRC may sense an opportunity for dealmaking, President Trump's plans to welcome 600,000 PRC students, 200% tariffs and the stakes surrounding rare earths, and more details on the EU-US trade deal. From there: Investors are all-in on Cambricon's upside, the FT reports on big chipmaking plans in China, while additional reports of a ban on Chinese H20 purchases spawn more questions about Beijing’s motivations and the state of domestic chips. At the end: Reactions to an extensive New York Times investigation of PRC interference in New York politics, and Labubu news for Tashi. Get all episodes of Sharp China, Sharp Tech, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk, Asianometry and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus for $15/month or $150/year. Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism To email the show: email@sharpchina.fm @SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube @Stratechery Channel — YouTube SCO Summit; PRC trade negotiator invites himself to DC; Trump wants more PRC students; AI+ Initiative; Nvidia - Sinocism Top Chinese Trade Negotiator Set to Head to U.S. as Talks Resume - WSJ Ambassador Xie Feng attended the U.S.-China Soybean Industry Partner Breakfast Reception and delivered remarks - PRC Embassy to the U.S. China’s Soy Crushers May Be Facing a Winter Without US Beans - Bloomberg Trump to allow 600,000 Chinese students entry to US for college as trade talks with China press on - New York Post Send Harvard’s Chinese Students Home - WSJ China has to give US magnets or face 200% tariff - Reuters Joint Statement on a United States-European Union Framework on an Agreement on Reciprocal, Fair, and Balanced Trade - The White House Meet Cambricon: how 2 ‘genius brothers’ created China’s potential rival to Nvidia - SCMP China Nvidia rival Cambricon adds to $40 billion rally with 4,000% revenue jump - CNBC Changing times: Cambricon tops Moutai as China’s costliest stock as chips trump baijiu - SCMP China turns against Nvidia’s AI chip after ‘insulting’ Howard Lutnick remarks - FT Nvidia Orders Halt to H20 Production After China Directive Against Purchases - The Information Opinions of the State Council on Deepening the Implementation of the “Artificial Intelligence+” Initiative - Sinocism How China Influences Elections in America’s Biggest City - N.Y.T. Inside Our Investigation of China’s Influence Campaigns - N.Y.T. Red Envelopes With Cash Are Changing Hands at Adams Campaign Rallies - N.Y.T. How a Criminal With Close Ties to China Became a New York Power Broker - N.Y.T. Red Packets in the USA! - Image Thief

This discussion kicks off with NVIDIA's complex relationship with China and the regulatory hurdles affecting chip sales. The hosts dive into the shaky state of China's real estate market, highlighting government efforts to stabilize it. They also explore the evolving diplomatic ties between India and China amidst global tensions. Finally, the cultural impact of the Labubu plush toy brand is examined, showcasing the rise of Chinese soft power in the West, particularly among younger audiences.

The podcast dives into the latest insights from the July Politburo meeting, shaking up China's economic strategy and setting the stage for the Fourth Plenum. Tensions rise as they discuss Trump's evolving approach to China, hinting at a shift towards dealmaking and potentially softening stances on contentious issues like chips and Taiwan. The hosts also examine the impact of overcapacity in industries and the challenges entrepreneurs face amid government pressures. Tune in for an engaging analysis of U.S.-China relations and the implications of recent political maneuvers!