Sharp China with Bill Bishop

A fast-moving discussion of top PLA figures being investigated for corruption and why the timing shocked observers. They explore Xi’s broader military purges and how corruption charges are used for political control. The conversation also probes rumors linking senior officers to foreign actors and considers what the shakeup could mean for Taiwan and regional messaging.

A new strategic partnership between China and Canada raises eyebrows, as concerns about weak Western unity surface. Mark Carney's comments on a 'new world order' spark debate, alongside discussions on reciprocal trade and the implications for industries. The UK and EU are also contemplating shifts, with notable political figures heading to Beijing. Additionally, rumors of purges within the PLA intensify, while Nvidia faces accusations of manipulating public opinion against chip legislation. The intertwining of domestic politics and international strategies creates a complex narrative.

The podcast dives into the instability in Iran and the implications of Trump's tariff threats on trade relations with China. Discussions include how these tariffs could impact China's oil access and investments. The conversation shifts to Canada's Prime Minister visiting Beijing, seeking new export markets. Additionally, the popularity of the 'Are You Dead?' app and updates on Chinese drone policies add to the intrigue, highlighting the ever-evolving landscape of US-China relations.

The podcast dives into China's unexpected reaction to Nicolás Maduro's arrest in Venezuela, exploring the geopolitical implications and propaganda opportunities. The hosts discuss China's tightening export controls affecting Japan’s rare earth access, raising questions about future standoffs. They also look at reports of a pause on H200 chip purchases by PRC companies to protect domestic interests. A fascinating segment highlights how the CCP is evolving its recruitment strategies, utilizing influencers to spread its narratives subtly.

The discussion kicks off with key insights from the Central Economic Work Conference, emphasizing the push for expanding domestic demand as crucial for stability. Consumption's ties to national security spark intriguing debate. The contrasting approaches of the U.S. and China toward economic strategy reveal deeper dynamics. Political motivations behind resource allocation come into play, presenting a complex picture of economic policymaking. Plus, past unresolved issues like the TikTok saga and Xi's succession plans keep listeners engaged with the ever-evolving narrative.

The podcast dives into the controversial greenlighting of Nvidia’s H200 chips for China and Trump's claims surrounding it. A bipartisan backlash ensues over the potential job losses and misleading statements. The hosts discuss the strategic importance of these chips for Chinese AI and question any real benefits for the U.S. They also explore the potential outcomes of China's decisions on chip purchases and how the U.S. might navigate stability in the region, all while touching on Japan's calls for American support and Macron's visit to China.

Tensions between China and Japan take center stage, challenging not only diplomacy but historical narratives. The hosts dissect a controversial call between Trump and Xi, revealing conflicting reports and unclear messages regarding Taiwan. Internet governance and AI strategies emerge as China seeks to tighten ideological control while attempting to export its digital model globally. Meanwhile, the struggling real estate sector raises alarms, as Vanke's debts and systemic risks could spell trouble for the economy. Europe faces its own dilemma as dependency on China complicates trade.

Tensions rise as the hosts discuss Japan's Prime Minister's comments on Taiwan and the fierce Chinese backlash. They reflect on past protests over the Senkaku Islands and analyze the current political climate. Real estate woes deepen in China, with alarming predictions for economic contraction. A leaked memo suggests Alibaba's ties to the PLA, sparking concern. The episode also touches on Hasan Piker's travels in China, questioning the role of Western influencers in shaping narratives.

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the implementation of this month's deal between the US and China, including a variety of early indications that both sides intend to follow through with commitments made in South Korea, the PRC's clarification on its December 2024 export controls, and a report on the PRC implementing VEU system for rare earth exports to the US. From there: A variety of news and notes including a new textbook on Xi Jinping Economic Thought, Xi's visit to the Fujian aircraft carrier, a crackdown on improper asset seizures, and a flare-up with Japan's new PM after her comments on Taiwan contingencies inspire caustic language from a PRC diplomat. At the end: A pair of reports highlight questions about the AI future in China and elsewhere, while the New York Times reports on transnational censorship of a film festival in New York City. Get all episodes of Sharp China, Sharp Tech, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk, Asianometry and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus for $15/month or $150/year. Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism To email the show: email@sharpchina.fm @SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube @Stratechery Channel — YouTube He Lifeng on New Quality Productive Forces; Measures to Promote Private Investment; PLA Air Force Turns 76; US-China Deal — Sinocism Xi in Guangdong; Fujian Carrier; "An Introduction to Xi Jinping Economic Thought"; No PRC Honeymoon with New Japanese PM — Sinocism China Suspends Export Controls on More Critical Minerals — New York Times China Hatches Plan to Keep U.S. Military From Getting Its Rare-Earth Magnets — Wall Street Journal Exclusive: FBI Chief Visited China to Talk Fentanyl, Law Enforcement, Sources Say — Reuters Analysis: Beijing’s Push for Judicial Checks on Asset Seizures Signals Bid to Reassure Private Sector — Caixin Takaichi Defends Taiwan Views After China Envoy’s Violent Threat — Bloomberg Exclusive: China Bans Foreign AI Chips from State-Funded Data Centres, Sources Say — Reuters U.S. to Block Nvidia’s Sale of Scaled-Back AI Chips to China — The Information How China Reached Into New York to Stop a Tiny Film Festival — New York Times

This discussion dives into the recent US-China deal, highlighting the tactical retreat from China and why stability is expected until April. The hosts explore China's motivations behind accepting a partial agreement and the political messaging surrounding it. There's also insight on Nvidia's thwarted chip sales to China and subsidies for domestic AI chip production. Other key topics include the challenges of decoupling economies and the complexities of potential fentanyl cooperation between the two nations.