Sharp China with Bill Bishop

Tensions rise as the hosts discuss Japan's Prime Minister's comments on Taiwan and the fierce Chinese backlash. They reflect on past protests over the Senkaku Islands and analyze the current political climate. Real estate woes deepen in China, with alarming predictions for economic contraction. A leaked memo suggests Alibaba's ties to the PLA, sparking concern. The episode also touches on Hasan Piker's travels in China, questioning the role of Western influencers in shaping narratives.

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the implementation of this month's deal between the US and China, including a variety of early indications that both sides intend to follow through with commitments made in South Korea, the PRC's clarification on its December 2024 export controls, and a report on the PRC implementing VEU system for rare earth exports to the US. From there: A variety of news and notes including a new textbook on Xi Jinping Economic Thought, Xi's visit to the Fujian aircraft carrier, a crackdown on improper asset seizures, and a flare-up with Japan's new PM after her comments on Taiwan contingencies inspire caustic language from a PRC diplomat. At the end: A pair of reports highlight questions about the AI future in China and elsewhere, while the New York Times reports on transnational censorship of a film festival in New York City. Get all episodes of Sharp China, Sharp Tech, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk, Asianometry and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus for $15/month or $150/year. Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism To email the show: email@sharpchina.fm @SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube @Stratechery Channel — YouTube He Lifeng on New Quality Productive Forces; Measures to Promote Private Investment; PLA Air Force Turns 76; US-China Deal — Sinocism Xi in Guangdong; Fujian Carrier; "An Introduction to Xi Jinping Economic Thought"; No PRC Honeymoon with New Japanese PM — Sinocism China Suspends Export Controls on More Critical Minerals — New York Times China Hatches Plan to Keep U.S. Military From Getting Its Rare-Earth Magnets — Wall Street Journal Exclusive: FBI Chief Visited China to Talk Fentanyl, Law Enforcement, Sources Say — Reuters Analysis: Beijing’s Push for Judicial Checks on Asset Seizures Signals Bid to Reassure Private Sector — Caixin Takaichi Defends Taiwan Views After China Envoy’s Violent Threat — Bloomberg Exclusive: China Bans Foreign AI Chips from State-Funded Data Centres, Sources Say — Reuters U.S. to Block Nvidia’s Sale of Scaled-Back AI Chips to China — The Information How China Reached Into New York to Stop a Tiny Film Festival — New York Times

This discussion dives into the recent US-China deal, highlighting the tactical retreat from China and why stability is expected until April. The hosts explore China's motivations behind accepting a partial agreement and the political messaging surrounding it. There's also insight on Nvidia's thwarted chip sales to China and subsidies for domestic AI chip production. Other key topics include the challenges of decoupling economies and the complexities of potential fentanyl cooperation between the two nations.

The looming Trump-Xi meeting in Seoul raises questions about what concessions might be made, especially concerning rare earth export controls and fentanyl tariffs. Discussions reveal how Beijing views the U.S. by 2025 and the potential for relative stability in the short term. The narrative around the Kuala Lumpur talks showcases divided media responses, hinting at either U.S. concessions or Chinese capitulation. Moreover, the interplay between tactical stabilization and ongoing strategic tensions provides insight into U.S.-China relations moving forward.

In this discussion, intriguing questions arise around the Fourth Plenum and its implications for policy changes. The conversation dives into recent PLA purges, exploring competing theories and their significance for Taiwan's security. Insights into Xi Jinping’s control are shared, challenging notions of his decline. Finally, the situation surrounding the trade war with the U.S. and the complexities involving Nexperia are highlighted, leaving listeners eager for deeper analysis on these critical issues.

The discussion kicks off with China's new export controls on rare earths, provoking global concern. Trump's reaction highlights the stakes, questioning whether his tweets are strategic or merely trolling. Bill explains that China's clarifications on the controls might not ease worries. The hosts ponder if Xi's decision could be seen as a tactical error, possibly provoking a stronger US response. They also debate the implications of these measures on global supply chains and whether China is overplaying its hand in this high-stakes economic chess game.

A UK spy scandal unfolds as charges against two men are dropped, raising eyebrows about government reluctance to label China as an enemy. Political fallout ensues, casting doubt on Prime Minister Starmer's leadership. Meanwhile, the EU suggests tariff hikes against Chinese steel, and discussions about a trillion-dollar resolution to the US-China trade war spark skepticism. In a surprising twist, a 'China-linked plot' surfaces concerning communication disruptions in New York City, while the NBA reconnects with fans in Macao.

The hosts dive into the political dynamics surrounding TikTok's divestiture, highlighting why the deal could advantage ByteDance. They explore unresolved security concerns and the muted congressional response. Next, the discussion shifts to China's push for changes in U.S. Taiwan policy during trade talks, with potential ramifications for soybean farmers. Additionally, the new K Visa program aims to attract foreign tech talent, and there's an intriguing look at Jensen Huang's comments on China hawks and export controls tightening.

Tensions between Trump and Xi heat up as calls for future meetings emerge, potentially bringing some stabilization. The murky details of a TikTok sale raise eyebrows, with shifting reports and a spotlight on the algorithm. In a surprising turn, China’s purchases of Argentine soybeans leave US farmers on the sidelines. Meanwhile, a controversial Arcteryx fireworks display in Tibet triggers outrage and investigations. It’s a fascinating look at the intricate ties between the US and China.

The podcast dives into the intricacies of a potential deal to divest TikTok from ByteDance, unraveling the complexities of algorithm control and data operations. It addresses the regulatory challenges and political dynamics surrounding TikTok's fate in the US. The discussion shifts to Nvidia and the escalating chip tensions, revealing the impact of additional measures against PRC firms. The hosts also explore the evolving propaganda strategies employed by the CPC, alongside touches of cultural humor involving LeBron James and pigeon racing.