Sharp China with Bill Bishop

Tensions rise as the U.S. grapples with China's rare earth export restrictions and the implications for global industries. The discussion delves into America's reliance on these critical minerals, highlighting urgent calls for alternative sources. A focus on chip controls reveals the challenges in securing semiconductor supply chains, all while U.S.-China negotiations hang in the balance. Additionally, price wars in the electric vehicle sector signal deeper automotive industry issues, with major implications for market dynamics.

The discussion kicks off with the ambitious Made in China 2025 strategy and its implications for the future. Electric vehicle competition heats up, hinting at a fierce market battle ahead. The EU's plans to collaborate with the US on China policies are unveiled, revealing the challenges of forming a unified front. Meanwhile, espionage warnings from the MSS and hacking accusations against Czechia add tension. The dynamics of factional politics within the Chinese Communist Party also come into focus, hinting at possible rivalries and challenges faced by Xi Jinping.

The discussion highlights the U.S. export controls on AI chips, particularly affecting Huawei's Ascend chips. Tensions rise as policymakers debate the Geneva Consensus on chip regulation. There's also a focus on U.S.-China dynamics, with plans for collaboration in AI investments with Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Voices in China advocate for technological self-reliance, while rogue devices in solar inverters stir controversy. The overall narrative explores the strategic challenges and responses shaping the future of tech diplomacy.

A surprising 90-day tariff reduction between the U.S. and China is making waves in trade discussions. The new dialogue mechanism aims to tackle critical economic issues and foster communication. Insights reveal the perceived advantages for China amid this pause. The complexities of trade tensions are unpacked, highlighting historical contexts and strategic considerations. Key players' roles in upcoming negotiations are also examined, alongside the overarching implications for global markets.

US and China engage in trade talks in Switzerland, with experts urging caution on expectations. Concerns rise over the opacity of Chinese economic data, highlighting the challenges posed by missing statistics. Xi Jinping's visit to Moscow sparks analysis of China's strategic ties with Russia amid the Ukraine conflict. Meanwhile, the CIA's unusual recruitment approach, using Mandarin-language videos, raises eyebrows on Chinese social media, reflecting broader geopolitical tensions.

Get all episodes of Sharp China, Sharp Tech, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk, Asianometry and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus for $15/month or $150/year. Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism On today’s show Andrew and Bill take stock of the trade war one month after “Liberation Day.” Topics include: Domestic messaging on “struggle” and external promises to never kneel down, the risks facing the PRC as US tariffs threaten to compound overcapacity controversies and invite heightened scrutiny around the world, Week 3 of speculation on whether the US and China are negotiating on trade, and why talk of a resolution and return to the March status quo seems increasingly unrealistic. At the end: The April Politburo meeting reflects both caution and confidence, a study session on AI spells bad news for Nvidia, thoughts on Apple’s story in China as the company tries to relocate US iPhone assembly to India, and Netflix gets the last laugh 15 years after being rebuffed by PRC censors. To email the show: email@sharpchina.fm @SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube @Stratechery Channel — YouTube Xi inspects Shanghai, talks AI and Global South; "不跪/Never kneel down"; AI; Jack Ma and Huang Youlong — Sinocism April Politburo Study Session on AI is bad news for Nvidia — Sinocism Today, it is necessary to revisit On Protracted War. — Beijing Daily Never Kneel Down — Ministry of Foreign Affairs on X China exempts some goods from US tariffs — Reuters US tariffs could endanger 16 million export jobs in China: Goldman Sachs — SCMP Emerging markets set to become battlegrounds in trade war — Financial Times Trump says Xi called him, lays out trade and other deal plans in Time interview — Reuters Exclusive: Trump officials eye changes to Biden's AI chip export rule, sources say — Reuters Apple aims to source all US iPhones from India in pivot away from China — Financial Times Apple’s India Manufacturing Push Faces Spoilers, Including China — The Information Apple in China: The Capture of the World's Greatest Company — Patrick McGee Netflix Co-CEO Says They’re Not in China Because ‘Not a Single Episode’ Cleared the Censorship Board — IndieWire

Get all episodes of Sharp China, Sharp Tech, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk, Asianometry and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus for $15/month or $150/year. Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with Tuesday’s signals that the Trump administration may seek to deescalate its trade war, why Beijing may see it as confirmation that their patient approach is working, and questions about what’s next as the Trump messaging on trade changes by the day. From there: The PRC warns countries about cooperating with the US, and why the apparent US flip-flopping likely hurts their cause with third-party countries. At the end: A dispatch from Yiwu, more on PRC messages to third-party countries, and a listener’s note on Trump’s caustic approach to Canada. To email the show: email@sharpchina.fm @SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube @Stratechery Channel — YouTube Appeasement of the US is not an option; Wang Yi on Xi's trip; Private economy law; More pilots for service sector opening — Sinocism Bessent Expects Tariff Standoff With China to De-Escalate — Bloomberg US markets rally as Treasury secretary says China trade war is ‘unsustainable’ — Financial Times China warns countries against striking trade deals with US at its expense — Reuters China urges Japan to help fight US tariffs together, Kyodo reports — Reuters Wang Yi urges stronger China-Austria ties, slams U.S. tariffs — CGTN Wang Yi holds phone call with UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy, stressing shared responsibility to uphold multilateral trade system — Global Times ‘You Think We’re Afraid of America?’ — The Atlantic 3 takeaways from my visit to Yiwu, the frontlines of the trade war — Chang Che Blame Canada - South Park — YouTube

The discussion dives into the evolving trade war between the U.S. and China, examining the new 145% tariffs on Chinese goods. The U.S. restricts Nvidia from exporting H20 chips, raising questions about future tech relations. Jensen Huang's strategic visit to Beijing highlights tensions in the tech sector. Restrictions on rare earth exports from China reveal deeper supply chain anxieties. As TikTok faces uncertainty amidst these tariffs, the geopolitical landscape surrounding tech continues to shift dramatically.

The podcast dives into the escalating U.S.-China trade war, highlighting staggering tariffs and China's potential responses. It explores the impact on major companies like Apple and the intricacies of international relations. Additionally, discussions touch on the EU's opportunities following a significant call between leaders, the political ramifications of TikTok negotiations during the Trump administration, and an investigation into a prominent Chinese official's son. The episode wraps up with a blend of serious analysis and light-hearted anecdotes.

Get all episodes of Sharp China, Sharp Tech, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk, Asianometry and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus for $15/month or $150/year. Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the China Development Forum, including China's messaging to foreign investors, revisiting the Mintz raids as five detained employees are finally released, no updates on a Xi-Trump meeting, and news in the EV space. From there: The US plans to revive shipbuilding capacity, the likely disruption if the US adopts the USTR recommendations to counter Chinese dominance, Michael Froman writes that China has remade the international system, and a few more thoughts on the CK Hutchison deal. At the end: Rumors swirl around He Weidong and others in the PLA, what the noise might signal, and news of a deep-sea cable cutter is accompanied by a reminder that China constructs and protects deep sea cable like no other. To email the show: email@sharpchina.fm @SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube @Stratechery Channel — YouTube US closes some tech export control loopholes; Support for private business; DeepSeek — Sinocism China Development Forum; Xi Economic Thought; WTO compliance; Wang Yi in Tokyo — Sinocism China releases employees of US firm as Xi Jinping courts global CEOs — Financial Times AUDI, Not Audi: A New EV Sub-Brand Prepares for Launch — Auto Blog Tesla warns Trump administration it is ‘exposed’ to retaliatory tariffs — Financial Times Why ships are the new chips — Financial Times How Foreign Companies Are Funding China’s Dual-Use Shipyards — Wall Street Journal China Has Already Remade the International System — Foreign Affairs China's Undeclared Arctic Foreign Policy — Wilson Center Devil in the details of the Hutchison-BlackRock Panama ports deal — SCMP Senior Chinese general disappears in latest high-level political purge — Washington Times China unveils a powerful deep-sea cable cutter that could reset the world order — SCMP Commentary: China constructs, protects submarine cable system in inclusive internet quest — Xinhua