Sharp China with Bill Bishop (Preview) A Basic Consensus on Arrangements to Address US-China Concerns; The New Five-Year Plan Sounds Familiar; Nexperia as an Object Lesson
Oct 29, 2025
The looming Trump-Xi meeting in Seoul raises questions about what concessions might be made, especially concerning rare earth export controls and fentanyl tariffs. Discussions reveal how Beijing views the U.S. by 2025 and the potential for relative stability in the short term. The narrative around the Kuala Lumpur talks showcases divided media responses, hinting at either U.S. concessions or Chinese capitulation. Moreover, the interplay between tactical stabilization and ongoing strategic tensions provides insight into U.S.-China relations moving forward.
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Tactical Stabilization Not Structural Fix
- The upcoming Trump–Xi meeting likely aims for tactical stabilization rather than structural change in US-China relations.
- Bill Bishop expects a short-term easing of tensions while deep, structural decoupling pressures remain unresolved.
Don't Jump To Conclusions
- Avoid rushing to definitive conclusions when official details are scarce and speculation is rampant.
- Wait for concrete readouts after leader meetings before treating narratives as settled.
Delay Requires Real Concessions
- China won't delay rare-earth export controls without meaningful concessions from the U.S.
- Possible U.S. concessions include rollback or adjustment of export control enforcement and incentives like soybean purchases.