Sharp China with Bill Bishop The US-China Deal One Week Later: Why Short-Term Stability Is Likely, Costs and Benefits of Escalation, and More Adventures with Nvidia
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Nov 5, 2025 This discussion dives into the recent US-China deal, highlighting the tactical retreat from China and why stability is expected until April. The hosts explore China's motivations behind accepting a partial agreement and the political messaging surrounding it. There's also insight on Nvidia's thwarted chip sales to China and subsidies for domestic AI chip production. Other key topics include the challenges of decoupling economies and the complexities of potential fentanyl cooperation between the two nations.
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Tactical Pause Through April
- The Trump-Xi meeting created a tactical pause likely to last through April, reducing near-term escalation risks.
- China gains stability and perceives the US as limited in willingness to inflict sustained pain on its economy.
Global Reactions Are Mixed
- Other countries see mixed signals: the deal softens pressure but also shows China's new capacity to retaliate economically.
- That complicates allied efforts to build a coordinated, sustained strategy versus China.
Rare Earths Spark Faster Diversification
- The rare-earth episode accelerated global efforts to diversify supply chains and invest in alternatives.
- US government funding and possible congressional action could neutralize China's leverage in 12–24 months.