The Horn

In this discussion, Murithi Mutiga, Africa Program Director at the International Crisis Group, delves into the groundbreaking Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. He highlights Ethiopia's motivations, the dam's economic promise, and the regional tensions it incites, particularly with Egypt and Sudan. The complexities of historical treaties and failed mediation efforts are explored, revealing deep-seated mistrust. Murithi also speculates on the dam's potential benefits for industrialization and regional stability, stressing the need for trust-building to avoid future crises.

In this episode of The Horn, marking Crisis Group’s 30th anniversary, Alan Boswell speaks with president & CEO Comfort Ero about how the landscape of peacemaking has evolved since the organisation’s founding in 1995. They trace how the environment for conflict resolution has shifted from the aftermath of the war in Bosnia to today’s challenges, amid a second Trump presidency and an unravelling global order. They then turn to Africa, examining how leaders on the continent perceive the erosion of Western dominance and the obstacles facing efforts to resolve regional conflicts. They also discuss how the war in Sudan illustrates the difficulties of peacemaking amid a fragmenting world. Finally, they discuss the future of peacemaking amid these headwinds. For more, check out the last The Horn Episode with Comfort “Africa in a World between Orders” as well as our Africa and Multilateral Diplomacy pages.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week on The Horn, Alan Boswell sits down with Samira Gaid, founder and senior analyst at the Mogadishu-based think tank Balqiis Insights, and Fred Bauma, human rights advocate and executive secretary at the Ebuteli research institute in Kinshasa, to unpack the uncertain future of peacekeeping operations across the African continent. Once a signature response to conflict, large multilateral missions face growing skepticism from global powers like China, Russia, and the U.S., as well as from the very states they aim to protect. The guests reflect on the frustration shared by local populations, host governments and international donors as peacekeeping missions struggle to deliver real security and political progress. They discuss why some global actors are still keen on trying to make peacekeeping fit for purpose, despite these challenges. Finally, they assess what the future of foreign deployments and missions in fragile countries in Africa might look like, given the decline of multilateralism. This episode is produced in partnership with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung.For more, check out Crisis Group CEO Comfort Ero’s analyst’s notebook entry, “The Future of UN Peacekeeping Cannot Be Business as Usual” and our Multilateral Diplomacy page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by analyst and researcher Sarra Majdoub to take a closer look at Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and their evolving military and political objectives. They discuss the RSF’s recent loss of control in Khartoum to the Sudanese Armed Forces, and the group’s strategic pivot toward consolidating power in Darfur and the Kordofan regions even as those areas suffer from a deepening humanitarian crisis. They unpack the RSF’s emerging new political strategy, including their recent alliance with the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) and efforts to establish a parallel government with allied armed groups. They also discuss the RSF’s new long-range drone capabilities and why the group decided to escalate the conflict by launching strikes into eastern Sudan, including on Port Sudan. Finally, they explore whether the RSF is preparing for a lengthy war and protracted stalemate, if the group is positioning for a negotiated settlement to the war, or both. For more, check out our statement “Two Years On, Sudan’s War is Spreading”, our recent analyst’s notebook entries: “Capture of Tri-border Area Marks Another Twist in Sudan’s Civil War”, “Battle for Darfur Reaches Fever Pitch as Sudan’s War Enters Third Year”, “London Conference Puts Paralysed Sudan Peace Efforts on Display” and our Sudan page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, we're bringing you a bonus episode on the DR Congo-Rwanda peace deal and U.S. engagement in Africa from Crisis Group's Global Podcast Hold Your Fire!.In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Murithi Mutiga, Crisis Group’s Africa program director, to discuss the DR Congo-Rwanda deal, U.S. peacemaking in Africa and elsewhere, and how revisionist leadership could impact the continent. They unpack the U.S. and Qatar-brokered peace deal, its minerals component and the pitfalls in the Trump administration’s mediation style, also looking at diplomacy in other hotspots. They also discuss Sudan’s civil war and whether Trump’s illiberal dealmaking might offer a way out. They examine simmering tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea and what renewed war between them would mean for an already tumultuous region. Finally, they look at how revisionist leaders in Africa may be emboldened by a broader global trend of achieving goals through force, how Africans view Trump’s second term policy so far and how it compares to Chinese engagement in Africa. For more, check out our latest Q&A, “The DR Congo-Rwanda Deal: Now Comes the Hard Part”, The Horn podcast episode “The New Scramble for Peace (and Minerals) in DR Congo” and our Africa page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week on The Horn, Alan is joined by Guleid Ahmed Jama, a Hargeisa-based lawyer and political commentator, to discuss Somaliland’s push for recognition. They revisit Somaliland’s decision to declare independence from Somalia in 1991 and trace how Hargeisa’s relations with Mogadishu have evolved since then. They discuss Somaliland’s memorandum of understanding with Ethiopia in 2024 – reportedly granting Ethiopia port access in exchange for potential recognition – which stirred domestic debate and regional tensions, and explore how Somaliland’s new administration has been managing relations with both Addis Ababa and Mogadishu. They explore prospects of greater U.S. engagement under the Trump administration, potentially linked to military access, and discuss how Hargeisa’s ties with global powers and regional actors might evolve as Somaliland continues to assert itself internationally.For more, check out Crisis Group’s recent analyses, “Somaliland’s Peaceful Handover Withstands Neighbourhood Strains” and “The Stakes in the Ethiopia-Somaliland Deal”. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this discussion, Daniel Akech, a senior analyst for South Sudan at the International Crisis Group, delves into the complexities of South Sudan's political landscape. He traces President Salva Kiir's rise and the challenges he faces amidst health concerns and a brewing succession crisis. Akech highlights Benjamin Bol Mel's controversial emergence as a potential successor, despite lacking popular support. The conversation uncovers the intricate power struggles within the government and the looming threat of renewed civil conflict, shedding light on how regional actors might respond.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan Boswell is joined by Richard Moncrieff, Crisis Group’s Great Lakes project director, to discuss the state of the war in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. They discuss the extent of the Rwanda-backed M23’s territorial gains in eastern Congo and why the group’s military advances halted. They discuss Rwanda’s motives and objectives, the state of Rwanda-Burundi relations, and Uganda’s positioning inside Congo. They also delve into how the crisis has affected President Félix Tshisekedi’s grip on power and the re-emergence of former President Joseph Kabila as an opposition figure. Finally, they discuss why the various African peace initiatives lost steam, the new Qatari and American peace efforts, and how to analyse this new era of peacemaking.For more, check out Richard’s recent Analyst’s Notebook entry “A New Great Lakes Peace Pledge Marks Progress but Questions Remain” and our DR Congo country page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan Boswell is joined by Abdul Mohammed, who has worked on Sudan for many years, including as a senior official in the UN and African Union. They discuss the risks of a de facto partition of the country as both the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces look to solidify their respective zones of control. They examine why previous peace initiatives have faltered, the expanding role of external powers in the conflict, and key takeaways from last week’s London conference, which brought together Western, Arab, and African countries. They consider what a multilateral effort to end the war might entail and whether the African Union is positioned to take the lead. Finally, they discuss whether there is still space for Sudan’s civilian actors in future mediation efforts and what it would take to piece the country back together after two years of war.For more, check out our analyst notebook entries “London Conference Puts Paralysed Sudan Peace Efforts on Display” and “Battle for Darfur Reaches Fever Pitch as Sudan’s War Enters Third Year” as well as our statement “Two Years On, Sudan’s War is Spreading”, as well as our Sudan country page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan Boswell is joined by Sudanese civil society activist and political commentator Dallia Mohamed Abdelmoniem. They discuss her flight from Khartoum when war broke out between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces two years ago, and the devastation it brought to her neighbourhood and the city. They discuss the widespread destruction of the war on Sudan and its social fabric, and the risk of the conflict continuing to escalate, including beyond Sudan’s borders. They also explore how to end the war, the risks of the country’s partition and why so many Sudanese still reject the idea of peace talks. They also discuss where hope lies for Sudan’s future.For more, check out our statement “Two Years On, Sudan’s War is Spreading”, as well as our Sudan country page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.