The Horn Ethiopia’s Grand and Contested Dam
Sep 26, 2025
In this discussion, Murithi Mutiga, Africa Program Director at the International Crisis Group, delves into the groundbreaking Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. He highlights Ethiopia's motivations, the dam's economic promise, and the regional tensions it incites, particularly with Egypt and Sudan. The complexities of historical treaties and failed mediation efforts are explored, revealing deep-seated mistrust. Murithi also speculates on the dam's potential benefits for industrialization and regional stability, stressing the need for trust-building to avoid future crises.
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Water As Ethiopia’s Development Lever
- Ethiopia views its water resources as central to transforming a low-income economy into a middle-income one.
- The GERD is framed as national ambition and a symbol of restoring Ethiopia's economic pride.
Public-Funded National Project
- Millions of Ethiopians funded the GERD through donations and salary contributions rather than foreign loans.
- The project was marketed as a national undertaking that united citizens behind a shared goal.
Downstream Existential Anxiety
- Egypt perceives upstream dams as existential threats because it relies on the Nile for roughly 90% of freshwater.
- Sudan is less dependent but sits between competing Egyptian and Ethiopian interests.