The Horn As South Sudan Quakes, an Heir Apparent Rises
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Jun 9, 2025 In this discussion, Daniel Akech, a senior analyst for South Sudan at the International Crisis Group, delves into the complexities of South Sudan's political landscape. He traces President Salva Kiir's rise and the challenges he faces amidst health concerns and a brewing succession crisis. Akech highlights Benjamin Bol Mel's controversial emergence as a potential successor, despite lacking popular support. The conversation uncovers the intricate power struggles within the government and the looming threat of renewed civil conflict, shedding light on how regional actors might respond.
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Kiir's Rise from Underestimated Leader
- Salva Kiir was initially underestimated and not seen as a future leader.
- He consolidated power by focusing on southern secession and managing internal rivals through patronage and inclusion of armed groups.
Post-Independence SPLM Divisions
- The unity of the SPLM dissolved after independence as the main unifying goal ended.
- Rivalries over party leadership escalated into civil war, fueled by ethnicity and power struggles.
Health Sparks Succession Debate
- Kiir's declining health has accelerated succession discussions within South Sudan.
- There is tension over how succession should be framed legally and politically, especially balancing ethnic interests.