The Long View

Our guest on the podcast today is Mike Moran, managing director and pension strategist for Goldman Sachs. Mike focuses on areas such as plan-funded status, contribution activity, and asset allocation for both defined-benefit and defined-contribution plans. He also works directly with plan sponsors on issues specific to their retirement plans. Mike has worked at Goldman Sachs for more than 24 years in a variety of roles focusing on capital markets, asset allocation, and investment strategy. He is a CFA charterholder and has an MBA in finance from New York University’s Stern School of Business, as well as a B.S. in accounting from Villanova University. Mike can speak to a wide range of retirement-related issues, but he is here today to discuss Goldman’s most recent retirement survey and insights report, titled “Diving Deeper Into the Financial Vortex: A Way Forward.”BackgroundBioSurveyRetirement Survey and Insights Reports 2023: “Diving Deeper Into the Financial Vortex: A Way Forward,” Goldman Sachs Asset Management, gsam.com, 2023.Retirement Survey and Insights Report 2022: “Navigating the Financial Vortex: Women & Retirement Security,” Goldman Sachs Asset Management, gsam.com, 2022.“Retirement Survey and Insights Report 2021,” Goldman Sachs Asset Management, gsam.com, 2021.“Despite Low Financial Literacy, Many Americans Manage Their Own Retirement,” Goldman Sachs, goldmansachs.com, Oct. 18, 2023.Financial Vortex“Financial Vortex Contributes to Looming U.S. Retirement Shortfalls,” by Michael Moran, fa-mag.com, Nov. 11, 2022.“How to Avoid a ‘Financial Vortex’ in Retirement, According to Goldman Sachs,” by Alyssa Place, benefitnews.com, Sept. 19, 2023.Investment Options“No Time for Corporate Pension Complacency: An Interview With Michael Moran,” by Michael Moran, gsam.com, April 20, 2023.“Why Most Americans Aren’t Saving Enough for Retirement,” Goldman Sachs Exchanges podcast with Mike Moran, goldmansachs.com, Oct. 3, 2023.OtherNextCapital GroupSurvey of Consumer Finances

Tiffany Aliche, known as "The Budgetnista," is a transformative force in financial education, having shifted from preschool teaching to empowering women in personal finance. She shares her journey through financial hardships and emphasizes the importance of vulnerability in building supportive communities. Tiffany discusses financial wholeness, advocating for fulfillment over mere wealth, and highlights the unique challenges women face in financial literacy. Her insights on finding trustworthy financial advisors are invaluable for anyone seeking to improve their financial well-being.

Hi, and welcome to The Long View. I’m Christine Benz, director of personal finance and retirement planning for Morningstar. Our guests on the podcast today are Amy Arnott and John Rekenthaler. Amy and John are two of the co-authors, along with me, of some recently released Morningstar research on retirement spending rates. The paper is called The State of Retirement Income, and it’s an update on some research that we published in 2021 and 2022. Amy and John are both long-tenured Morningstar researchers and part of Morningstar Research Services LLC, which is a wholly owned subsidiary of Morningstar. Amy is a portfolio strategist and John is director of research for that group. They’re both contributors to Morningstar.com as well.Background“The State of Retirement Income 2023,” by Amy Arnott, John Rekenthaler, and Christine Benz, Morningstar.com, November 2023.“Christine Benz and John Rekenthaler: How Much Can You Safely Spend in Retirement?” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, Dec. 21, 2021.“Christine Benz and John Rekenthaler: Revisiting What Is a Safe Retirement Spending Rate After a Tough Year,” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, Dec. 20, 2022.“The State of Retirement Income,” by Christine Benz, Jeff Ptak, and John Rekenthaler, Morningstar.com, 2022.“What’s a Safe Withdrawal Rate Today?” by Christine Benz and John Rekenthaler, Morningstar.com, Dec. 13, 2022.Base Case Conclusions“Determining Withdrawal Rates Using Historical Data,” by William Bengen, Financial Planning Association Journal, 2004.“Bill Bengen: Revisiting Safe Withdrawal Rates,” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, Dec. 14, 2021.Dynamic Spending Strategies“When It Comes to Retirement Spending, Flexibility Pays,” by Christine Benz, Morningstar.com, April 14, 2023.“Want to Boost Your Retirement Income? ‘Guardrails’ Could Help,” by Christine Benz, Morningstar.com, May 5, 2023.“Why Do People Spend the Way They Do in Retirement? Findings From EBRI’s Spending in Retirement Survey,” by Lori Lucas, ebri.org, Jan. 14, 2021.TIPS Ladders, Inflation, and Portfolio Returns“High TIPS Yields Are a Retiree’s Best Friend,” by John Rekenthaler, Morningstar.com, Oct. 16, 2023.“What High Inflation Means for Your Portfolio,” by Amy Arnott, Morningstar.com, April 24, 2023.“The Good News on Safe Withdrawal Rates,” by Amy Arnott, Morningstar.com, Nov. 13, 2023.“Expenditure Patterns of Older Americans, 2001-2009,” by Sudipto Banerjee, EBRI Issue Brief, February 2012.

Guest Scott Burns, syndicated personal finance columnist and author, discusses couch potato investing, retirement spending, annuities as a retirement solution, and go-to resources for personal finance wisdom.

Our guest on the podcast today is author and blogger JL Collins. He blogs about financial independence and other matters at jlcollinsnh.com. JL’s first book, The Simple Path to Wealth: Your Road Map to Financial Independence and a Rich, Free Life, was published in 2016 and has become something of a bible for people in the financial independence movement. His new book is called Pathfinders: Extraordinary Stories of People Like You on the Quest for Financial Independence.BackgroundBioJlcollinsnh.com“JL Collins: The Case for Simplicity,” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, April 5, 2022.Pathfinders: Extraordinary Stories of People Like You on the Quest for Financial Independence—And How to Join Them, by JL CollinsThe Simple Path to Wealth: Your Road Map to Financial Independence and a Rich, Free Life, by JL CollinsSaving, Spending, and Lifestyle CreepLifestyle Creep: What It Is, How It Works“How ‘Geographic Arbitrage’ Can Make You Money,” by Eric Reed, smartasset.com, May 30, 2023.“Why Your House Is a Terrible Investment,” by JL Collins, jlcollinsnh.com, Sept. 22, 2023.“Higher for Longer vs. the Stock Market,” by Ben Carlson, awealthofcommonsense.com, Oct. 3, 2023.Investing“Things Important, and Unimportant,” by JL Collins, jlcollinsnh.com, March 1, 2023.“Stocks—Part XXX: jcollinsnh vs. Vanguard,” by JL Collins, jlcollinsnh.com, Sept. 16, 2023.OtherFI ChautauquaMr. Money MustacheThe Richest Man in Babylon, by George S. ClasonA Wealth of Common SenseQuit Like a Millionaire, by Kristy Shen and Bryce LeungMad Fientist

Nizar Tarhuni from PitchBook discusses the evolving investor and the importance of non-financial outcomes in private markets. They explore the landscape of private markets and venture capital investing, manager selection, recent trends in deal activity, and the risks associated with investing in small companies. They also discuss portfolio construction challenges, quantitative work in private markets, and provide insights for financial advisors on important considerations in private credit and venture capital investing.

Our guest this week is Jeffrey Kleintop. Jeffrey is managing director, chief global investment strategist for Charles Schwab & Co. In his role, Jeffrey analyzes and comments on international markets, trends, and events. You can find Jeffrey’s commentary on social media at @JeffreyKleintop, as well as on Schwab’s site, where a full library of his content is available. Jeffrey is quoted often in national media and has been a regular guest on CNBC and other television outlets. Prior to joining Schwab, Jeffrey served as Chief Market Strategist at LPL Financial. He received his bachelor’s in business from the University of Delaware and his MBA from Pennsylvania State University and is a Chartered Financial Analyst charterholder.BackgroundBioTwitterMarket Evolution: How to Profit in Today’s Changing Financial Markets, by Jeffrey Kleintop.Markets and Consumer ConfidenceCharles Schwab Weekly Market Outlook“Gloomy Consumer Confidence May Signal Stock Rally,” by Herbert Lash, Reuters, June 18, 2008.“Confidence Is Everything: 3 Things May Shake It,” by Jeffrey Kleintop, VettaFi Advisor Perspectives, Aug. 18, 2020.“Schwab Market Perspective: Different Speeds,” by Liz Ann Sonders, Kathy Jones, Jeffrey Kleintop, VettaFi Advisor Perspectives, June, 20, 2023Liz Ann SondersKathy Jones“Kleintop: We’re in for an extended period of market volatility,” CNBC Television.“Revisiting Short-Duration Stocks,” by Jeffrey Kleintop, Schwab, April 9, 2023.Cardboard Box Recession“Mid-Year Outlook: Global Stocks and Economy”, by Jeffrey Kleintop, Schwab, June 5, 2023.“U.S. Is in a ‘Cardboard Box Recession,’ Says Strategist,” Yahoo Finance, June 13, 2023“The US Is in a ‘Cardboard Box Recession’ That’s Pointing to a Sharp Fall in Inflation by the End of the Year,” by Jennifer Sor, Markets Insider, June 6, 2023.Central Banks, Yen Carry Trade, International Markets“Risk: Hikes May Be Over, But QT Goes On,” by Jeffrey Kleintop, Schwab, Sept. 25, 2023.“Divergence: Rate Cuts, Pauses, and Hikes,” by Jeffrey Kleintop, Schwab, July 31, 2023.“Are You Focusing on the Wrong Central Bank?” by Jeffrey Kleintop, Schwab, Feb. 26, 2023.“Europe Sentiment: So Bad It’s Good,” by Jeffrey Kleintop, Schwab, Sept. 11, 2023.IMF World Economic Outlook“China: Contagion or Contained?” by Jeffrey Kleintop, Schwab, Aug. 28, 2023.Artificial Intelligence“Investing in Artificial Intelligence (AI),” by Jeffrey Kleintop, VettaFi Advisor Perspectives, Aug. 15, 2023.

Our guest on the podcast today is Dr. Anita Mukherjee, associate professor in Risk and Insurance at the Wisconsin School of Business at the University of Wisconsin at Madison. Professor Mukherjee conducts research on public policy related to prisons and the opioid crisis, as well as household finance, retirement, and aging. Professor Mukherjee joined the Wisconsin School of Business after completing her Ph.D. in applied economics at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. She holds an M.S. in management science and engineering, a B.S. in mathematics, and a B.A. in economics, all from Stanford University. Prior to enrolling at Wharton, she spent two years working as a consultant to Oliver Wyman.BackgroundBioAbandoned Retirement Plans“Lost and Found: Claiming Behavior in Abandoned Retirement Accounts,” by Anita Mukherjee and Corina Mommaerts, Retirement & Disability Research Center, 2020.“Set It and Forget It? Financing Retirement in an Age of Defaults,” by Lucas Goodman, Anita Mukherjee, and Shanthi Ramnath, papers.ssrn.com, Oct. 19, 2022.Lucas Goodman“Frictions in Saving and Claiming: An Analysis of Unclaimed Retirement Accounts,” by Anita Mukherjee and Corina Mommaerts, Retirement & Disability Research Center, December 2019.Wealth Inequality and Retirement“Inequality in the Golden Years: Wealth Gradients in Disability-Free and Work-Free Longevity in the United States,” by Hessam Bavafa, Anita Mukherjee, and Tyler Q. Welch, Journal of Health Economics, Sept. 26, 2023.“The Effects of the Opioid Crisis on Employment: Evidence From Labor Market Flows,” by Anita Mukherjee, Daniel W. Sacks, and Hoyoung Yoo, papers.ssrn.com, July 27, 2022.“The Effects of Naloxone Access Laws on Opioid Abuse, Mortality, and Crime,” by Jennifer L. Doleac and Anita Mukherjee, papers.ssrn.com, Dec. 5, 2022.“Intergenerational Altruism and Retirement Transfers: Evidence From the Social Security Notch,” by Anita Mukherjee, The Journal of Human Resources, September 2022.Medicaid and Financial Literacy“Medicaid and Long-Term Care: The Effects of Penalizing Strategic Asset Transfers,” by Junhao Liu and Anita Mukherjee, papers.ssrn.com, Jan. 6, 2020.“Building Financial and Health Literacy at Older Ages: The Role of Online Information,” by Anita Mukherjee, Hessam Bavafa, and Junhao Liu, The Journal of Consumer Affairs, January 2019.

David Giroux, Head of investment strategy and chief investment officer for T. Rowe Price Investment Management, discusses market inefficiencies, advice for younger self, Mobileye's valuation and future of vehicle technology, Revity's strategic direction and stock price concerns, and reflections on the rise and fall of star managers.

Our guest this week is Michael Santoli. This is Michael’s second appearance on The Long View, his first coming in August 2021. Michael is senior markets commentator at CNBC, which he joined in 2015. Prior to that, Michael was a senior columnist at Yahoo Finance, where he wrote analysis and commentary on the market and economy. That followed a long stint at Barron’s magazine, where Michael was a columnist and feature writer for 15 years. Michael began his career in the early 1990s as a reporter, covering the securities industry for Dow Jones Newswires. He earned his bachelor’s degree from Wesleyan University.BackgroundBio“Michael Santoli: Navigating Through a Foggy Market Outlook,” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, Aug. 9, 2022.Bonds and Interest Rates“KKR’s Henry McVey Makes the Case for Real Assets,” Squawk on the Street, cnbc.com, Sept. 14, 2023.“AI Hype Lifts Microsoft Shares at Alphabet’s Expense. An Opportunity May Be Investing for Investors,” by Michael Santoli, cnbc.com, Feb. 8, 2023.Economy and the Stock Market“Stocks Churn With the S&P 500 Sitting at the Same Level It Was Two Years Ago,” by Michael Santoli, cnbc.com, Sept. 16, 2023.“The Stock Market Is Stuck in a Typical but Anxious Seasonal Pullback,” by Michael Santoli, cnbc.com, Sept. 9, 2023.“Collective Embrace of Soft Landing Economic Scenario Extends 2023 Rally After Welcoming Drop in CPI,” by Michael Santoli, cnbc.com, July 15, 2023.“Stock Market Heads Into the Second Half With Near 15% Total Return so far in 2023,” by Michael Santoli, cnbc.com, June 24, 2023.“Is It a Bull or a Bear Market? Stocks Churning in Same Spot for Weeks Frustrates Investors,” by Michael Santoli, cnbc.com, April 22, 2023.“Explaining the Relative Calm of the Stock Market as the Fed Hikes Rates Into a Mini Financial Panic,” by Michael Santoli, cnbc.com, March 25, 2023.“Run on Silicon Valley Bank Injects Some Panic Into an Already Slumping Stock Market,” by Michael Santoli, cnbc.com, March 11, 2023.“Resilient Stock Market Finds Support at Just the Right Time, Preserving Uptrend,” by Michael Santoli, cnbc.com, March 4, 2023.“Who Is Right? Bulls and Bears Each Have Reliable Indicators Backing Them in This Confusing Market,” by Michael Santoli, cnbc.com, Feb. 11, 2023.