Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)

In this discussion, Dave Kasten, who played a vital role in developing VaccinateCA, shares his journey of transforming a simple document into a key source for vaccine distribution during the pandemic. He reveals the challenges of scaling volunteer efforts and navigating government processes. Kasten highlights innovative feedback mechanisms and the surprising impact that youth have had on public health initiatives. He also addresses the complexities of tech and governmental collaboration, focusing on the lessons learned and the potential for future improvements.

Austin Vernon, a petroleum engineer specialized in fracking, dives deep into the fascinating world of drilling technology. He unpacks the evolution of fracking methods and the unique funding channels, dubbed 'doctor and lawyer money.' The discussion also touches on mineral rights laws, the economic nuances of drilling operations, and how small-scale oil ventures mirror rental properties. Additionally, Vernon highlights the interplay between fracking technologies and geothermal energy, showcasing innovative advancements in drilling that promise a brighter energy future.

Dan Davies, author of "Lying for Money" and "The Unaccountability Machine," delves into the complexities of cybernetics and its impact on modern organizations. He explores how organizations adapt as they grow, revealing the intricate relationship between financial fraud and system design. The conversation highlights the dangers of detachment in decision-making and the innovative solutions required for managing modern complexities. Davies also shares insights from his journey transitioning from banking to writing, emphasizing the true value of community connections in publishing.

Casey Handmer, a rocket scientist and CEO of Terraform Industries, shares insights on solar energy advancements and the mission to create synthetic natural gas from sunlight and air. He discusses the challenges of innovation within NASA's bureaucratic structures, contrasting them with the agility of companies like SpaceX. The conversation also highlights the potential of localized electricity production and the moral imperative of ensuring global energy access, all while drawing parallels with historical shifts in production and technology.

In this insightful discussion, Zvi Mowshowitz, a professional gambler, trader, and AI journalist, shares his diverse career journey from Magic: The Gathering to sports betting and AI commentary. He dives into the nuances of informal and financial markets, revealing the intricacies of sportsbooks. Zvi reflects on decision-making during COVID-19, shedding light on the chaos of vaccine distribution. Their conversation also touches on the transformative potential of AI and the importance of consistent actions in personal happiness.

Stephen Grugett, co-founder of Manifold, dives into the captivating world of prediction markets. He explains how these markets harness collective intelligence to make forecasts that often outshine traditional polls. The conversation touches on the role of social dynamics, user engagement, and even the influence of bots. Grugett shares insights on the evolution of Manifold’s systems, debates on capital efficiency, and the excitement surrounding predicting events like geopolitical incidents. It's a fascinating blend of philosophy and practical applications!

Kelsey Piper, a journalist for Vox’s Future Perfect, talks with Patrick McKenzie about equity irregularities at OpenAI and the social function of equity in tech. They discuss the frosty relationship between tech and media, editorial policies, media relations, and historical media practices in the modern tech industry.

Byrne Hobart joins Patrick McKenzie to discuss the toxicity of 30-year mortgages, finance newsletter dynamics, applying rationalist epistemics to hedge funds, and the joy of learning about an industry from scratch. They explore tax inefficiency in investments, competitive advantages in finance writing, evolution of web scraping, and monetization strategies of online travel agencies.

Ricki Heicklen, a former US equities trader at Jane Street Capital, shares her innovative teaching methods for trading. She discusses the unique challenges of learning trading, emphasizing the importance of understanding adverse selection and market dynamics. Ricki advocates for practical examples to demystify trading mechanics, while also addressing the critical role of liquidity and its impact on costs. She delves into cybersecurity in trading and the need for a security mindset, highlighting how information risks can affect traders' success.