In this episode of The Retail Pilot, host Ken Pilot welcomes Jan Rogers Kniffen, CEO of J Rogers Kniffen Worldwide and retail industry expert, to discuss the current state and future of retail. Key Topics Discussed: Post-Election Retail BounceJan predicts a post-election retail bounce, as seen in previous presidential election yearsDiscretionary retail is currently running at zero inflation, making it attractive to consumersFourth Quarter OutlookDespite potential headwinds, Jan expects a strong fourth quarterForecasts 3.5-4% sales growth, similar to last yearBelieves discretionary goods will perform well due to their perceived value compared to inflating servicesWalmart vs. TargetWalmart is outperforming Target significantlyWalmart is attracting higher-income customers, traditionally Target's demographicWalmart's focus on in-store experience and competitive pricing is paying offOff-Price Retail SectorTJ Maxx ranked as the fifth-best retailer in America by JanConcerns about over-saturation in the off-price sectorPotential challenges for off-price retailers as the market maturesDepartment Store FuturePredicts most department stores will go private by the end of 2026Cites lower interest rates and increased real estate values as factors facilitating buyoutsMentions Nordstrom, Macy's, and Kohl's as potential candidates for privatizationTariffs and ManufacturingDiscussion on the impact of potential tariffs, especially on goods from ChinaMany retailers have already reduced their exposure to Chinese manufacturingPredicts that moderate tariff increases might be absorbed by Chinese manufacturers rather than passed on to consumersNotable Quotes:"May the bounce be with you." - Jan Rogers Kniffen on the post-election retail bounce"I think it's come down to who can do this stuff as opposed to where you happen to be." - Jan Rogers Kniffen on retail performanceClosing Thoughts:Jan expresses optimism for the retail sector going into the fourth quarter and 2025, despite potential challenges. He emphasizes the importance of execution and adaptation in the evolving retail landscape.Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

On this episode of The Retail Pilot podcast, Ken speaks with Nick Green, Co-Founder & CEO of Thrive Market, a membership-based online platform that makes healthy and sustainable living easy and affordable to all. Nick launched Thrive 10 years ago shortly after graduating from Harvard.The business has also been recognized as a leader in regenerative agriculture, carbon-neutral shipping, and Zero Waste operations, and in 2020 became the nation’s largest grocer to receive B Corp Certification.Outside of Thrive Market, Nick lives in Venice, CA with his wife, Carolina, and their three children.Key PointsAbout Thrive Market: An online retailer offering natural and organic products at affordable prices through a membership model1Mission: Making healthy and sustainable living easy, affordable, and accessible to all1Business Model: $60 annual membership feeCurated assortment of natural and organic productsAI-powered personalizationZero-waste fulfillment and carbon-neutral shippingCompany StatsFounded: 10 years agoMembers: 1.5 millionAnnual Sales: Over half a billion dollarsProfitability: Now profitable and cash flow positive1Nick Green's BackgroundGrew up in Minneapolis with a health-conscious motherPreviously founded and sold an education companyMet co-founder Gunnar, who grew up on a hippie communeBusiness StrategyProduct Mix: 90% third-party brands10% Thrive Market branded products (generating 25% of sales)Private Label Strategy: Focus on filling gaps in the catalog rather than copying existing products1Margin Profile: Strong margins on both private label and third-party productsSustainability: Zero-waste fulfillment centers, carbon-neutral shippingMarketing StrategyReferrals: 25% of new members come from existing member referralsInfluencer Marketing: Unique approach to partnershipsDigital Marketing: Leveraging technology for personalized experiencesFuture OutlookFocus on expanding online presence rather than immediate brick-and-mortar plansPotential for future physical stores, but not a current priorityContinued investment in AI and personalization technologiesCompetitive AdvantagePurpose-built for healthy livingMembership model driving profitability and customer behaviorTechnology-first approach to e-commerceStrong focus on sustainability and ethical supply chainsHosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Ken Pilot interviews Oliver Chen for this flight of The Retail Pilot podcast. Oliver Chen is a Managing Director and senior equity research analyst covering retail and luxury goods at TD Cowen.  His deep understanding of the consumer and his ability to forecast the latest trends and technological changes that will impact the retail space have set him apart from peers.Prior to joining TD Cowen in 2014, he spent seven years at Citigroup, worked in the investment research division at UBS, in the global mergers and acquisitions/strategic planning group at PepsiCo International, and in JPMorgan’s consumer products/retail mergers and acquisitions group.Oliver holds a bachelor of science degree from Georgetown University, an MBA from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, and is a CFA charterholder.His passion for the sector began at the age of 12 when he began working with his parents at their retail business in Natchitoches, Louisiana.Summary:In this conversation, Oliver Chen discusses the current state of luxury retail and the beauty sector, highlighting the challenges and opportunities faced by brands. He emphasizes the importance of pricing strategies, the impact of digital transformation, and the need for brands to connect with younger consumers. The discussion also covers emerging trends in fragrance, the potential of the men's beauty market, and the role of AI in enhancing the retail experience.Key Takeaways:Luxury retail is facing an inflection point with declining sales.China's economic factors are influencing luxury spending.LVMH's strong brand portfolio positions it well in the market.Hermes thrives due to its timeless luxury appeal.Luxury brands are increasingly focusing on direct-to-consumer sales.Ralph Lauren's success is attributed to its cultural relevance and value perception.Fragrance is a growing category with opportunities for premiumization.The men's beauty market is still developing but shows potential.TikTok is becoming a significant platform for beauty brands.AI is set to transform the retail experience through personalized search.Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Ken Pilot interviews Shai Eisenman, CEO and Founder of Bubble, on this episode of The Retail Pilot Podcast. Bubble Skincare is the first modern, affordable, science-backed skincare line formulated to clean, balance and hydrate young skin all for under $20. Today, the Bubble line consists of 20+ products that work together to create a complete routine from face cleansers to face masks. Bubble products are available on hellobubble.com, in over 16,000 retail locations across the US, Austrailia and the UK including Boots, Beauty Bay, CVS Walmart and Ulta stores.Prior to starting Bubble in 2018, Eisenman started her B.A. at 15, and began her career in business at 16 years old. She lives in New York with her partner and two children. Key Points:Shai started Bubble after an early start in academics and entrepreneurshipBubble focuses on affordable, high-quality skincare products for younger consumersThe company built a community of 4,600 Gen Z advisors before launchingBubble now has over 50,000 brand ambassadors who provide input on all decisionsProducts are priced affordably (around $15) but with prestige-level qualityInitially launched D2C but quickly pivoted to retail partnershipsNow available in 13,000 U.S. stores including Walmart, Ulta, CVS, and AmazonRecently expanded to the UK (Boots) and Australia (Priceline)Business Strategy:Focused on margin dollars rather than margin percentageFound retail partnerships more profitable than D2C for their price pointInvests in physical experiences and grassroots marketing over traditional advertisingCollaborates with brands like Disney to reach new audiencesRaised capital primarily from individuals and early-stage fundsAims to be profitable and not reliant on external fundingCommunity Engagement:Uses multiple platforms to communicate with brand ambassadorsOffers gift cards and commissions to ambassadorsRuns college campus programs with exclusive merchandiseInvolves community in product development, naming, and marketing decisionsChallenges and Growth:Adapting leadership style and operations as the company scalesExpanding internationally while remaining an independent brandBalancing control over brand experience with benefits of retail partnershipsLeadership Insights:Values building a strong team and fostering communityRelies on experienced advisors for guidance in different growth stagesEmphasizes the importance of adapting to different business stages Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In this episode of the Retail Pilot Podcast, Ken Pilot engages with retail legend Mickey Drexler, discussing the current state of retail, pricing trends, and the importance of customer experience. Drexler shares insights from his journey at Alex Mill, emphasizing the significance of quality, team dynamics, and the evolving landscape of retail. The conversation also features Ali Dillon, the President of Alex Mill, Alex Drexler, Founder, and Creative Director, Somsack Sikhounmuong, who discuss their roles and the brand's vision, highlighting the importance of community and innovative marketing strategies. Key Takeaways Include:Recent Success: Alex Mill has experienced strong sales performance attributed to changes in merchandising and management.Product Focus: Sweaters and denim are particularly successful categories for Alex Mill, with emphasis on fit and quality.Retail Strategy: Alex Mill follows a "less is more" approach, focusing on smaller store sizes and selective expansion.Marketing Channels: Instagram is a primary driver of brand awareness, with the company also exploring TikTok marketing.Expansion Plans: Alex Mill is planning to open a new store in Rockefeller Center, aiming for an early November launch.Customer Acquisition: Word-of-mouth marketing plays a crucial role in the brand's growth and recognition.Product Diversity: Mickey emphasizes the importance of offering multiple color options for key items to create visual impact and customer appeal. Sustainability and reworking products can also create new opportunities.Team Dynamics: A strong, diverse team is critical for successful product execution and business operations.Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Simeon Siegel, a top retail analyst at BMO Capital Markets, dives into the current retail landscape and the importance of execution in a volatile market. He highlights the stark divide between thriving and struggling sectors post-pandemic. Luxury brands face new pressures, yet some like Prada perform well. Consumers remain resilient despite economic challenges, while technology investments are crucial for success. Siegel also shares insights on evolving retail strategies and the critical adaptation needed for legacy brands to maintain relevance.

Vic Drabicky, founder and CEO of January Digital, and Josh Krepon, President at Steve Madden, dive into the world of performance marketing in retail. They explore the critical balance between algorithm-based and authentic storytelling in branding. The conversation highlights the challenges of content management and the escalating importance of video marketing, particularly with platforms like TikTok. They also discuss how genuine influencer collaborations can foster real connections with consumers, and the growing role of MarTech in loyalty and data management.

In this engaging discussion, Mike Natenshon, founder of Marine Layer, shares his journey from finance to fashion catalyzed by the loss of his favorite shirt. He highlights the evolution of his California-inspired brand, which has become a staple for comfortable clothing. Mike discusses the innovative Respun initiative for upcycling old shirts and balancing retail channels in an evolving market. He also shares insights on the intimate store atmosphere and plans for international expansion, all while maintaining strong customer connections.

A THROWBACK to one of our earlier episodes of The Retail Pilot podcast with Andy Dunn, Founder of Bonobos and Author of Burn Rate.In this compelling episode, Ken sits down with Andy Dunn, a renowned entrepreneur and co-founder of the game-changing men's clothing brand, Bonobos. However, the conversation goes beyond Andy's professional accomplishments, as Andy delves into a deeply personal and significant aspect of his life: his journey with mental health and bipolar disorder and how it lead to crafting his memoir, Burn Rate.Listen as Andy bravely shares his experiences, offering a candid and enlightening perspective on the intersection of entrepreneurship and mental well-being. In a society that often glorifies the hustle and overlooks the challenges entrepreneurs face behind the scenes, Andy's story serves as a reminder that success doesn't always come without its struggles.Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In this engaging chat with Alexandra Wilkis Wilson, co-founder of Gilt and GLAMSQUAD, listeners dive into her dynamic entrepreneurial journey. She shares the rapid rise of Gilt and the innovative leap into GLAMSQUAD, highlighting lessons from challenges and successes. Alexandra discusses her transition to investing through Clerisy, focusing on consumer needs and unique problem-solving. With a commitment to mentoring female founders, she emphasizes the importance of personal connections and inclusive leadership in shaping successful ventures.