In a little over three months, the 2022 Ontario election campaign will get started. Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives will be seeking re-election for the first time after their 2018 victory. The polls suggest it could be a hotly-contested race, with not only the PCs in contention but also Andrea Horwath’s New Democrats and the Liberals under Steven Del Duca.To help break down how the parties are preparing for the June election, I’m joined this week by Sabrina Nanji of Queen’s Park Observer, where Sabrina keeps tabs on all the latest goings-on in Ontario politics. You can check out her work here.The Writ is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.In addition to listening to the episode here, on Apple Podcasts or on Spotify, you can also watch the discussion between myself and Sabrina on YouTube:To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

Since the Liberals came to power in 2015, Dan Arnold has been the man keeping tabs on public opinion in the Prime Minister’s Office. He’s also acted as the Liberal Party’s pollster in three election campaigns, watching the numbers as Justin Trudeau led the Liberals to three consecutive victories.After six years, Arnold is making the leap back to the private sector, returning to his old home at Pollara as Chief Strategy Officer. But first, he’s here to talk to me about his experiences tracking public opinion both in government and on the campaign trail in 2015, 2019 and 2021.The Writ is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.In addition to listening to the episode here, on Apple Podcasts or on Spotify, you can also watch the discussion between myself and Dan on YouTube:To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

In this final episode of The Writ Podcast for 2021, I’m joined by Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada.com to put our powers of prediction to the test! The game is simple: we set a number for an upcoming political event and then have to decide whether we think the result will be over or under that number. For example, the share of the vote the Ontario Progressive Conservatives will get in the June provincial election: 35.4%. Will the party get more or less than Tim Hudak’s score from 2011? Will the Coalition Avenir Québec win more or less than 93.5 seats in the election in October?Join in on the contest with your predictions in the comments section. But you’ll have to be patient — we’ll only know the winner at the end of 2022!The full episode is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify, but you’ll most want to watch the entire discussion on YouTube:If you have any questions you’d like me to answer in a future episode, leave a comment below, tweet me or send me an email. You can also listen to past episodes of The Writ Podcast and watch podcast interviews on YouTube by subscribing to my channel here.By the way! If you like the theme from The Writ Podcast, you can now listen to it unfiltered and uninterrupted! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

This week on 2021’s last regular edition of The Writ podcast:Polls of the week* Polling from Léger gives us an update on what Canadians think of the pandemic, as well as how their governments are doing handling it.* As the Liberals announce a diplomatic boycott of the Beijing Olympics, new data from the Angus Reid Institute suggests Canadians’ views on the issue are complicated — but that they see a rising China as a foreign policy threat, according to Abacus Data.The Writ is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Questions and answers* What leadership threshold do Erin O’Toole and Jason Kenney need to hit to keep their jobs?* Any provincial and federal politicians likely to make a jump to a different level of politics?* Which prime minister has held the most cabinet portfolios?* What impact could the Ontario Greens have on the next provincial election?* Could the CAQ make a breakthrough in Liberal-friendly Montreal?The #EveryElectionProject* As the holidays approach, politics takes a backseat — except during the 15 times Canadians went to the polls between December 10 and the end of the year.Look out for a special episode of The Writ Podcast next Friday!The full episode is also available on YouTube, as well as on Apple Podcasts and Spotify:If you have any questions you’d like me to answer in next week’s episode, leave a comment below, tweet me or send me an email. You can also listen to past episodes of The Writ Podcast and watch podcast interviews on YouTube by subscribing to my channel here.This week’s podcast title musical inspiration courtesy of Michael Bublé: This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

This week on The Writ podcast:Polls of the week* An update from Abacus Data on federal politics, including what Canadians thought of the throne speech, if they thought anything at all.* In Quebec, François Legault’s Coalition Avenir Québec remains on track for a landslide in next year’s election, according to Léger.* In Atlantic Canada, three governments are boasting high satisfaction ratings. One of them isn’t: New Brunswick.In the news* Sabrina Nanji of Queen’s Park Observer is back to give us the latest news in Ontario politics, as the countdown to the 2022 provincial election is now 181 days.Questions and answers* Which governments are at most political risk from inflation?* What’s an indicator of a leader in trouble?* Who is getting their election expenses reimbursed, and who isn’t?* What’s on my Spotify Wrapped list?The #EveryElectionProject* We’re approaching the 100th anniversary of the 1921 federal election, perhaps the first election to look familiar to our modern eyes.The full episode is also available on YouTube, as well as on Apple Podcasts and Spotify:If you have any questions you’d like me to answer in next week’s episode, leave a comment below, tweet me or send me an email. You can also listen to past episodes of The Writ Podcast and watch podcast interviews on YouTube by subscribing to my channel here.This week’s podcast title musical inspiration courtesy of Frédéric Chopin: This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

This week on The Writ podcast:In the news* The House re-elects its speaker and hears a throne speech.* Former NDP MP Pierre Nantel is trying to make a comeback with his third party in as many years.* Erin O’Toole and Jason Kenney hold on as party leaders.* Yukon’s minority government survives a confidence vote.* The Greens have a new interim leader: Amita Kuttner.Polls of the week* The next election on the docket is Ontario’s in June, and the Progressive Conservatives are still holding a narrow lead over the opposition Liberals and New Democrats, according to Léger.* A look at how Canadians are feeling about inflation from Ipsos.The Writ is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Questions and answers* If the Liberals met a 1993 PC-level defeat, which seats would be the surviving two?* Whither the Greens?* What’s my early take on federal polling trends?* Do the Quebec Liberals still dominate the anglophone vote?The #EveryElectionProject* Jean Chrétien’s last victory in the 2000 Canadian election, when the right was still divided and the Liberals looked set to govern forever. The full episode is also available on YouTube, as well as on Apple Podcasts and Spotify:If you have any questions you’d like me to answer in next week’s episode, leave a comment below, tweet me or send me an email. You can also listen to past episodes of The Writ Podcast and watch podcast interviews on YouTube by subscribing to my channel here.This week’s podcast title musical inspiration courtesy of Trooper: This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

This week on The Writ podcast:In the news* Erin O’Toole faces a leadership challenge from a senator, who he boots from the Conservative caucus.* A threshold is reached to force an earlier vote on Jason Kenney’s leadership.* The governing PCs score a big win in a P.E.I. byelection.The Writ is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Interview with Aaron Wherry* Parliament returns on Monday as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau tries to navigate another minority government (with or without the help of the NDP?) and Erin O’Toole faces questions about his leadership. To help break it all down, I’m joined again by the CBC’s Aaron Wherry. You can watch the interview on YouTube below:Questions and answers* What impact could a People’s Party of Ontario have on next year’s election?* How would parties change municipal politics in Ontario?* Could Jason Kenney really consider the nuclear option of an early election?* Predicting Canadian politics in 2040.* An update from Elections Canada and when we’ll know the number of late mail ballots.If you have any questions you’d like me to answer in next week’s episode, leave a comment below, tweet me or send me an email. You can also listen to episodes of The Writ Podcast on YouTube by subscribing to my channel here.This week’s podcast title musical inspiration courtesy of NSYNC: This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

This week on The Writ podcast:In the news* Quebec holds its municipal elections, with Valérie Plante beating Denis Coderre in the race to be Montreal’s mayor by a bigger margin than expected.* The leader of the Nova Scotia NDP announces he’ll be stepping down.* Another right-wing splinter party hopes to make waves in Ontario’s provincial election in June.The Writ is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.* Prince Edward Island is having a byelection on Monday. Teresa Wright, who teaches journalism at Holland College and has covered P.E.I. and federal politics for years, discusses where things stand politically on the island and what is at stake in the Cornwall–Meadowbank byelection. You can watch my interview with Teresa below:Questions and answers* How many federal mail ballots arrived too late to be counted?* Who will be the next leader of the Green Party?* A trio of Quebec questions on Québec Solidaire, the stakes for Paul St-Pierre Plamondon in the upcoming byelection, and the history of the “leader’s courtesy” in Quebec.* Do Saskatchewan people/Saskatchewanians want to be a nation?If you have any questions you’d like me to answer in next week’s episode, leave a comment below, tweet me or send me an email. You can also listen to episodes of The Writ Podcast on YouTube by subscribing to my channel here.This week’s podcast title musical inspiration courtesy of Weezer: This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

This week on The Writ podcast:In the news* The third quarter fundraising numbers are in, and the Conservatives have raised the most money (again), but the Liberals and Bloc Québécois set new records.* Sabrina Nanji of Queen’s Park Observer is back to give us the latest in Ontario political news. Check out her newsletter here.* Last weekend, the Manitoba PCs named their new leader and on Tuesday Heather Stefanson was sworn-in as premier. Curtis Brown of Probe Research joins the show to explain how it all happened, and what’s next in Manitoba politics. You can watch my interview with Curtis below:Questions and answers* What happens if the next election is held before the new riding boundaries are set?* How are Canadian and American elections different?* Can Brian Jean finally make his way to the Alberta premier’s office?* The Ontario PCs are trying to woo labour — what’s the role of unions in deciding vote outcomes?If you have any questions you’d like me to answer in next week’s episode, leave a comment below, tweet me or send me an email. You can also listen to episodes of The Writ Podcast on YouTube by subscribing to my channel here.This week’s podcast title musical inspiration courtesy of Shelly Glover and The Beatles: This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

This week on The Writ podcast:In the news* The new federal cabinet has been sworn-in, and it includes two ministers who won their seats by tiny margins.* Nunavut holds its territorial election, with new faces in half of the assembly’s seats.* The results of Alberta’s referendum and senatorial votes are in.* The Manitoba PCs will announce their next leader, and the province’s new premier, on Saturday.* The Nova Scotia Greens have chosen a new leader.Polls of the week* Polls from Nanos Research and Mainstreet Research show no post-election honeymoon for the Liberals.* Abacus Data shows broad support for requiring MPs to be vaccinated to sit in the House of Commons.* The Angus Reid Institute gives us an update on how each of the provincial governments are doing.Questions and answers* What’s the state of the mayoral race in Montreal?* Any cabinet surprises?* Are Liberal minority governments more stable than Conservative minority governments?* What would a close PC-NDP race in Ontario look like?#EveryElectionProject* The 1982 Alberta election, Peter Lougheed’s last election as PC leader and the best performance ever for a Western separatist party.If you have any questions you’d like me to answer in next week’s episode, leave a comment below, tweet me or send me an email. You can also listen to episodes of The Writ Podcast on YouTube by subscribing to my channel here.This week’s podcast title musical inspiration courtesy of Lin-Manuel Miranda: This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe