The Writ

A lot can change in two weeks in politics.The rules of the Conservative leadership race are now set and the contours of the contest are starting to come into focus as a number of candidates throw their hats into the ring.There will be no coronation for Pierre Poilievre, as Leslyn Lewis and Jean Charest (along with Roman Baber) declare their candidacies and Patrick Brown might not be far behind. While some other names could be included in the mix, Poilievre, Lewis, Charest and Brown could be your potential Top Four.With so much to discuss I had to bring Tim and Chad back right away.Chad Rogers is a founding partner at Crestview Strategy and Tim Powers is chairman of Summa Strategies.In addition to listening to the episode here or on other podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch my discussion with Tim and Chad on YouTube:And if you missed it, earlier this week I posted an explainer video on the rules and dynamics of the Conservative leadership race. Check it out below:To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

With just 90 days to go before election day in Ontario, the parties at Queen’s Park are already in campaign mode. But, the legislature is still sitting — and will keep sitting for another two months or so.The Ontario Progressive Conservatives seem to be planning to use every day to their advantage, running advertisements and pushing the budget date to the end of April, just before the writs will be dropped for the election campaign.To break down all the latest developments in and around Queen’s Park — including who is considering a bid for the federal Conservative leadership — I’m joined again by Sabrina Nanji of Queen’s Park Observer. You can check out her site below:In addition to listening to the episode here, on Apple Podcasts or on Spotify, you can also watch my discussion with Sabrina on YouTube:To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

We’re still waiting to find out when the next leader of the Conservative Party will be chosen and what requirements will need to be met by prospective contestants.But we do know that Ottawa-area MP Pierre Poilievre says he is running and that a number of other candidates — including former Progressive Conservative leader and Quebec premier Jean Charest — are mulling a bid.This will be the third Conservative leadership race in five years. Throughout the long contest back in 2017, I was joined by Tim Powers and Chad Rogers on The Pollcast, the podcast I then hosted at the CBC. The podcast wasn’t running anymore when the 2020 leadership race was taking place, but now that we’re in yet another campaign, it’s time to get the band back together!So, joining me on this week’s episode of the podcast is Chad Rogers of Crestview Strategy and Tim Powers of Summa Strategies.In addition to listening to the episode here, on Apple Podcasts or on Spotify, you can also watch my discussion with Tim and Chad on YouTube:To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

The protesters who have blockaded borders and occupied Ottawa over the last few weeks have had real impacts on the lives of those who depend on cross-border trade and those who live in the nation’s capital.They have also had an impact on politics in this country, changing Canadians’ views of both the prime minister over his handling of the crisis and the Conservative Party over the positions they have taken on pandemic restrictions and the protests themselves.Even if the protests die down or are put down, they will leave traces in politics for months, perhaps even years, to come.So, to help me make some sense out of how this is impacting partisan politics in Canada, I’m joined by David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data, on this week’s episode of The Writ Podcast.In addition to listening to the episode here, on Apple Podcasts or on Spotify, you can also watch my discussion with David on YouTube:To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

On Tuesday, voters in the northern Saskatchewan riding of Athabasca will be heading to the polls in a provincial byelection. This came about after NDP MLA Buckley Belanger resigned the seat to run for the federal Liberals in the last election. That run wasn’t successful, and now the New Democrats are hoping to hold a seat they have only lost once since 1975.This vote comes just days after Premier Scott Moe announces a lifting of proof-of-vaccination requirements in the province.To discuss the upcoming byelection and the state of politics in Saskatchewan, I’m joined today by Adam Hunter, the provincial affairs reporter for the CBC in Regina.In addition to listening to the episode here, on Apple Podcasts or on Spotify, you can also watch my discussion with Adam on YouTube:To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

Things escalated quickly this week, with Erin O’Toole losing a caucus vote on Wednesday that cost him his leadership of the Conservative Party. O’Toole is out, Candice Bergen is in as interim leader and a new leadership contest — the third since 2017 — is about to get under way.There’s a lot to discuss here. What led to Erin O’Toole’s swift and sudden downfall? What does this mean for the Conservative Party going forward? And what kind of candidate has the best shot at being O’Toole’s successor?To help me sift through all this, on this episode of The Writ Podcast I’m joined by the CBC’s Aaron Wherry. Read his analysis of the leadership drama.The Writ is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.In addition to listening to the episode here, on Apple Podcasts or on Spotify, you can also listen to the discussion between myself and Aaron on YouTube (the video quality didn’t work out this time, so it’s audio only this week):To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

In the last federal election, Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole made a play to woo working class voters to his party — a party that has not always been a friend to organized labour.Then, last fall Ontario Premier Doug Ford announced a minimum wage hike with labour leaders in attendance. So, what’s going on with the labour vote?To help explain the role of organized labour in past and future elections, on this episode of The Writ Podcast I’m joined by Larry Savage, a professor in the department of labour studies at Brock University. His research focuses on the politics of organized labour in Canada, including electoral strategy and the nature of party-union relationships.In addition to listening to the episode here, on Apple Podcasts or on Spotify, you can also watch the discussion between myself and Prof. Savage on YouTube:To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

In a little over three months, the 2022 Ontario election campaign will get started. Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives will be seeking re-election for the first time after their 2018 victory. The polls suggest it could be a hotly-contested race, with not only the PCs in contention but also Andrea Horwath’s New Democrats and the Liberals under Steven Del Duca.To help break down how the parties are preparing for the June election, I’m joined this week by Sabrina Nanji of Queen’s Park Observer, where Sabrina keeps tabs on all the latest goings-on in Ontario politics. You can check out her work here.The Writ is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.In addition to listening to the episode here, on Apple Podcasts or on Spotify, you can also watch the discussion between myself and Sabrina on YouTube:To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

Since the Liberals came to power in 2015, Dan Arnold has been the man keeping tabs on public opinion in the Prime Minister’s Office. He’s also acted as the Liberal Party’s pollster in three election campaigns, watching the numbers as Justin Trudeau led the Liberals to three consecutive victories.After six years, Arnold is making the leap back to the private sector, returning to his old home at Pollara as Chief Strategy Officer. But first, he’s here to talk to me about his experiences tracking public opinion both in government and on the campaign trail in 2015, 2019 and 2021.The Writ is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.In addition to listening to the episode here, on Apple Podcasts or on Spotify, you can also watch the discussion between myself and Dan on YouTube:To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

In this final episode of The Writ Podcast for 2021, I’m joined by Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada.com to put our powers of prediction to the test! The game is simple: we set a number for an upcoming political event and then have to decide whether we think the result will be over or under that number. For example, the share of the vote the Ontario Progressive Conservatives will get in the June provincial election: 35.4%. Will the party get more or less than Tim Hudak’s score from 2011? Will the Coalition Avenir Québec win more or less than 93.5 seats in the election in October?Join in on the contest with your predictions in the comments section. But you’ll have to be patient — we’ll only know the winner at the end of 2022!The full episode is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify, but you’ll most want to watch the entire discussion on YouTube:If you have any questions you’d like me to answer in a future episode, leave a comment below, tweet me or send me an email. You can also listen to past episodes of The Writ Podcast and watch podcast interviews on YouTube by subscribing to my channel here.By the way! If you like the theme from The Writ Podcast, you can now listen to it unfiltered and uninterrupted! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe