The Writ

With less than two weeks to go before election day in Ontario, David Coletto of Abacus Data and Sabrina Nanji of Queen’s Park Observer are back to discuss the latest on the campaign trail, including the impact of Andrea Horwath and Mike Schreiner testing positive for COVID-19, what to make of Steven Del Duca’s chances of winning his own riding and why Doug Ford is running such a low-key campaign.David also gives us a sneak peek at some exclusive polling on who won — or didn’t win — Monday’s leaders debate.The Writ is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.In addition to listening to the episode here or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch my discussion with Sabrina and David on YouTube.To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

It wasn’t the nasty affair that we saw last week, but Wednesday’s Conservative leadership debate still had its moments — and sound effects! It was like a game show, and like a game show there will only be one winner.Pierre Poilievre entered the debate as the front runner, chased by the likes of Jean Charest, Patrick Brown and Leslyn Lewis. Unlike the first debate, though, this was not a head-to-head match between Poilievre and Charest. Instead, there were entire stretches of the debate in which Poilievre could do nothing but stand on the sidelines as the audience sat riveted by the epic duel between Roman Baber and Scott Aitchison over their agreed positions on what to do with Canada’s North.Can such a scattershot debate have much of an impact on this Conservative leadership contest? The Writ is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.To discuss what happened at the debate in Edmonton, as well as chat about some of the broader implications of the ongoing Ontario provincial election campaign, I’m joined this week by the CBC’s Aaron Wherry and Shannon Proudfoot, Ottawa bureau chief for Maclean’s.In addition to listening to the episode here or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch my discussion with Shannon and Aaron on YouTube:To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

The writs have been dropped (hey, you don’t know, someone might have plopped them on a table) and the Ontario election is off and running, with voters casting their ballots on June 2. Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives are looking to be re-elected with a majority government and are ahead in the polls, chased by Steven Del Duca’s Liberals and, in third, Andrea Horwath’s New Democrats.The Writ is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.To help set up the stakes for each of these parties and what they need to do over the next four weeks, I’m joined by David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data, and Sabrina Nanji, who writes the Queen’s Park Observer newsletter.In addition to listening to the episode here or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch my discussion with David and Sabrina on YouTube:To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

When 5 PM rolls around, we’ll know who is going to be on the ballot in the Conservative leadership race. That’s the deadline for candidates to submit 500 signatures from members spread across the country, a $200,000 entry fee and a $100,000 compliance deposit. It’s not a threshold that weeds out any serious contender, but it can be too much for those who, let’s face it, don’t have a real shot.In the end, this contest is probably going to come down to one of the four main contenders: Pierre Poilievre, Jean Charest, Patrick Brown and Leslyn Lewis.Poilievre is the consensus front runner. But is his main rival not Jean Charest, the former Quebec premier, but instead Patrick Brown, the former leader of the Ontario PCs?To discuss all the latest in the Conservative leadership race, I’m joined this week by Tim Powers of Summa Strategies, Chad Rogers of Crestview Strategy and the CBC’s Catherine Cullen.In addition to listening to the episode here or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch my discussion with Tim, Chad and Catherine on YouTube:To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

A big and important vote is taking place on Sunday, as the second round of the French presidential election will be decided between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen.The polls give Macron the edge, but his advantage over the right-wing Le Pen has shrunk since they last faced-off against one another in 2017. What’s behind this closer race, and what could a victory by either Macron or Le Pen mean for France, Europe and the rest of the world?The Writ is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.To answer these questions on this week’s episode of The Writ Podcast, I’m joined by Raphaël Bouvier-Auclair, Radio-Canada’s correspondent in Paris.In addition to listening to the episode here or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch my discussion with Raphaël on YouTube:To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

Last week’s federal budget marked the first budget since the 2021 federal election and the first test of the deal struck between the Liberals and New Democrats that could keep Justin Trudeau in office until 2025. What does the budget say about both this deal and the plans for Trudeau’s third term in office?Meanwhile, the Conservative leadership race has been heating up as candidates go on the attack — Charest vs. Poilievre, Poilievre vs. Brown, and everyone avoiding saying anything critical of Leslyn Lewis in hopes of getting the second-choice support of her backers.The Writ is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.To discuss all of this, this week I’m joined by the CBC’s Aaron Wherry and Supriya Dwivedi, Director of Policy and Engagement at the Centre for Media, Technology and Democracy, and Senior Counsel for Enterprise Canada.In addition to listening to the episode here or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch my discussion with Supriya and Aaron on YouTube:To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

In just a little over three weeks, the Ontario election will be officially launched and in a little less than eight weeks we’ll know who the winner is. At the moment, the polls suggest Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives are on track to be re-elected.There have been a lot of new developments as the election gets closer and closer. Candidates are being nominated, political ads are hitting the airwaves and the reverberations out of Ottawa, be it a new child care agreement or the Liberal-NDP governing deal, are being felt in Toronto.To go through all the latest, I’m joined again this week by Sabrina Nanji of Queen’s Park Observer. You can check out her newsletter on everything Ontario-politics here.MONDAY NIGHT LIVESTREAM!Join me and 338Canada.com’s Philippe J. Fournier on Monday night at 8 PM ET for live coverage of the Quebec byelection results in Marie-Victorin. You’ll find the livestream here. Be there and be square!In addition to listening to the episode here or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch my discussion with Sabrina on YouTube:To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

When the Conservatives launched their leadership race earlier this year, the date to name a leader was set with at least one factor in mind: the need to have a leader in place in case the party headed into an election in the fall.But now that the Liberals and New Democrats have signed a deal that could extend the life of this Parliament to 2025, the Conservative leadership campaign’s urgency has changed.Has that changed the race itself?To break down the latest developments in and around the Conservative leadership contest, I’m joined again by Chad Rogers of Crestview Strategy and Tim Powers of Summa Strategies.In addition to listening to the episode here or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch my discussion with Tim and Chad on YouTube:To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

It’s not always easy to recognize when something big is happening — something that could be remembered for a long time as a turning point.Could the Liberal and NDP confidence and supply agreement be that kind of turning point?Since 2004, Canadians have elected minority governments in five of seven federal elections and we’ve had majority government for only eight of the last 18 years. If minority governments have become the rule rather than the exception, the way we do politics in Canada might have to change.This agreement between the Liberals and the NDP could be the first try at that — or it could turn out to be a complete mess. Whatever happens, it will have huge implications not only for the future of the Liberals and the NDP (and their leaders), but potentially for the Conservatives, too.With so much to unpack, on this week’s episode of The Writ Podcast I’m joined again by the CBC’s Aaron Wherry. You can read his recent analysis on the Liberal and NDP agreement here.In addition to listening to the episode here or on other podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch my discussion with Aaron on YouTube:To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

On Tuesday, voters in the riding of Fort McMurray–Lac La Biche elected Brian Jean as their next MLA, the latest development in a political drama that could cost Premier Jason Kenney his leadership.Running as a United Conservative Party candidate, Jean was always the heavy favourite to win the seat. But this is not necessarily a win for the governing United Conservatives, as Jean was — like all other candidates on the ballot — opposed to Jason Kenney’s government.Kenney’s rival for the UCP leadership in 2017, Jean is pushing for the UCP membership to vote out Kenney at a leadership review in Red Deer on April 9. The stakes couldn’t be higher for the future of Kenney and the UCP.To break down all the latest in this story, I’m joined this week by Elise von Scheel, the CBC’s politics reporter in Calgary. (Elise also produced and appeared with me on The Pollcast podcast back in the day.)In addition to listening to the episode here or on other podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch my discussion with Elise on YouTube:To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe