Investopoly

Vocal market commentor and fund manager, Chris Joye wrote in the AFR in November last year that Australian house prices could fall by 15% to 25% after the RBA starts increasing interest rates (here’s a copy of that article).Of course, there are many property doomsayers that perpetually (and often inaccurately) predict property market crashes. However, Chris is not one of these people. In fact, Chris’ predictions are usually quite accurate. However, on this occasion, I disagree with his prediction, and I share the reasons why below.However, more importantly, I wanted to discuss what impact rising interest rates might have on the property market.It’s interesting that almost everyone disagrees with the RBAThe RBA has persistently reminded us that it will not raise the cash rate until inflation is sustainably within its 2% to 3% band. And for that to be the case, the wage inflation rate must be sustainably in the 3% to 4% range, according to the RBA. Price inflation can’t remain sustainably high unless it’s supported by rising wages. Last week, wage inflation printed at 2.3% p.a., so we are some way off the RBA’s target.Despite the RBA’s clear indication, the market stubbornly predicts that interest rates will rise quickly over the course of this year. In fact, this chart shows the money market is currently pricing in 7 to 8 rate hikes (of 0.25% each) over the next 16 months. This seems over ambitious.So, why would the market ignore the RBA’s commentary and price in more rate hikes? The RBA’s in full control of the cash rate, so shouldn’t we listen to it? It’s like your child telling all her friends that she thinks she’s coming to the party when she’s grounded. I suspect the answer is that markets are imperfect, especially in the short run.It is worth noting that Australia is in a much different position to the US. In the US, inflation is very high (at 7.5% p.a.) which is underpinned by historically high wage inflation (at 4.5% p.a. which is a 40-year high). One of the main problems is that the US participation rate hasn’t bounced back like iSubscribe via www.investopoly.com.au/emailDo you have a question? Email: questions@investopoly.com.au or for a faster response, post a comment on the episode's video over on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@investopolypodcast/podcasts If you're interested in working with my team and me, discover how we can work together here: https://prosolution.com.au/prospective-client/If this episode resonated with you, please leave a rating on your favourite podcast platform. Subscribe to my weekly blog: https://www.prosolution.com.au/stay-connected/ Buy a one of Stuart's books for ONLY $20 including delivery. Use the discount code blog: https://prosolution.com.au/books/DOWNLOAD our 97-point financial health checklist here: https://prosolution.com.au/download-checklist/IMPORTANT: This podcast provides general information about finance, taxes, and credit. This means that the content does not consider your specific objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is crucial for you to assess whether the information is suitable for your circumstances before taking any actions based on it. If you find yourself uncertain about the relevance or your specific needs, it is advisable to seek advice from a licensed and trustworthy professional.

The value of a property consists of two components being the land plus any improvements i.e., the dwelling. Generally, land appreciates in value whereas buildings depreciate over time due to wear and tear.It is possible to manufacture equity in a property by making improvements e.g. renovating/rebuilding the existing dwelling or constructing multiple dwellings. This occurs when the end value of the property exceeds its cost e.g. spending $100,000 on a renovation improves its value by $150,000, thereby “creating” $50,000 in equity.This blog considers the merits of this strategy.The theory (maths)As noted above, a property’s value is the aggregate of the land value plus the building value. In investment-grade locations, it is not unusual for the land value to represent at least 60% of the total value and the improvements 40%.If we assume the long-term capital growth rate for these types of assets is likely to be in excess of 7% p.a. (which isn’t uncommon), then the land must appreciate at a higher rate to offset the building’s depreciation to result in an overall appreciation rate of 7% p.a. If we assume that the building depreciates by 2.5% p.a., then the land must appreciate by 13.3% p.a.For example, if a property is worth $100, then the building value is $40, and it will depreciate by $1 p.a. (being 2.5%) and the land value which is $60 will appreciate by $8 (being 13.3%). Therefore, its total value after one year will be $100 - $1 + $8 = $107, being a 7% p.a. growth rate.Therefore, to maximise your expected rate of capital growth, you must spend as much as possible on the land in return for spending as little as possible on the building.Capital improvements create a once-off value appreciationIt is common for the market value of a newly renovated or constructed property to exceed its hard cost. This occurs for a few reasons:§ Completing building works takes several months or years. In addition, there’s a lot of work involved in coordinating and meeting with architects, buildings and so forth. Not everyone wants to go through that process. As such, buyers may pay a premium to secure a move-in-ready dwelling.§ Undertaking building works is not a riskless exercise. Things can go wrong including cost blow outs and so on. As such, some purchasers will pay a premium to avoid these risks.Subscribe via www.investopoly.com.au/emailDo you have a question? Email: questions@investopoly.com.au or for a faster response, post a comment on the episode's video over on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@investopolypodcast/podcasts If you're interested in working with my team and me, discover how we can work together here: https://prosolution.com.au/prospective-client/If this episode resonated with you, please leave a rating on your favourite podcast platform. Subscribe to my weekly blog: https://www.prosolution.com.au/stay-connected/ Buy a one of Stuart's books for ONLY $20 including delivery. Use the discount code blog: https://prosolution.com.au/books/DOWNLOAD our 97-point financial health checklist here: https://prosolution.com.au/download-checklist/IMPORTANT: This podcast provides general information about finance, taxes, and credit. This means that the content does not consider your specific objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is crucial for you to assess whether the information is suitable for your circumstances before taking any actions based on it. If you find yourself uncertain about the relevance or your specific needs, it is advisable to seek advice from a licensed and trustworthy professional.

In my book, Investopoly, I outlined 8 investing rules that if followed, will help you build wealth and avoid making costly mistakes. These 8 rules are evidenced-based which I have refined over the past 20+ years.Rule number one is; play the long game. Arguably, it’s the most important rule because I’ve observed that this is the most common mistakes investors make i.e., they don’t play the long game. Whilst this rule is simple to understand, its often very challenging to follow.Short term profit does not create long term valueWhich investment option would you prefer (you can only pick one)? Invest in an index (share) fund which will accumulate $500,000 of additional wealth over the next 10 years or follow a “stock tip” which will generate a $50,000 profit within 9 months?Unfortunately, many investors would pick the stock tip option. They might justify their decision by planning to invest in the long-term option after they have banked a quick profit, but they rarely do. Instead, they search for the next short-term hit. To many, making a quick profit feels less risky than waiting 10+ years for a much larger gain.Three reasons short-term opportunities are inferiorI recently came across an investment opportunity to complete a 4-townhouse development which was projected to generate between $460k to $550k in pre-tax profit (which equated to a return of between 15% and 18%). It may take 2 to 3 years to complete this development.Of course, an alternative to this investment is to purchase a high-quality, investment-grade property and hold it for the long term. This is a better option for 3 reasons (which is why I didn’t pursue the property development).(1) Risk-adjusted returnsRisk refers to the chance that your actual returns will vary from your expected returns i.e. that the investment doesn’t achieve what you expect. Low risk investments produce very predictable returns, such as term deposits – as the return is virtually guaranteed. An investment’s volatility rate is a good measure of its risk.You cannot compare two investing options without also comparing their inherent risk. This is called a Subscribe via www.investopoly.com.au/emailDo you have a question? Email: questions@investopoly.com.au or for a faster response, post a comment on the episode's video over on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@investopolypodcast/podcasts If you're interested in working with my team and me, discover how we can work together here: https://prosolution.com.au/prospective-client/If this episode resonated with you, please leave a rating on your favourite podcast platform. Subscribe to my weekly blog: https://www.prosolution.com.au/stay-connected/ Buy a one of Stuart's books for ONLY $20 including delivery. Use the discount code blog: https://prosolution.com.au/books/DOWNLOAD our 97-point financial health checklist here: https://prosolution.com.au/download-checklist/IMPORTANT: This podcast provides general information about finance, taxes, and credit. This means that the content does not consider your specific objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is crucial for you to assess whether the information is suitable for your circumstances before taking any actions based on it. If you find yourself uncertain about the relevance or your specific needs, it is advisable to seek advice from a licensed and trustworthy professional.

There is one property investing golden rule that is more important than everything else. And if you nail this ‘one thing’, you are guaranteed to build wealth over the long run. This statement might sound sensationist, but I honestly cannot overstate this point.The golden rule is that the quality of the property you invest in will drive its long-term investment returns. If you invest in an average quality property, your long-term returns are likely to be average. Of course, if you want above average returns, you must invest in above-average quality property.This golden rule applies to all other assets classes as well, including shares, bonds, commercial property and so on.What does ‘quality’ mean?A quality property has the necessary attributes that sustains a level of buyer-demand that perpetually exceeds supply. This imbalance of supply-demand results in appreciating value/prices in the long-run. A high-quality property is often referred to as investment-grade.It is worth discussing the factors that impact supply and demand.In investment-grade locations, supply is fixed or diminishingSupply is probably the easier of the two factors to understand and ascertain. Supply refers to both land supply and dwelling type/style.Regarding land, it is important that the supply of land is fixed and finite. Consider a well-established, blue-chip suburb. In these locations there is rarely any vacant land available, often within a 10km to 20km radius. And there is no way that any new land can by ‘released’ for sale. However, in outer suburbs, land supply can be abundant due to land releases within a 20km radius. The further a property’s location is away from available vacant land, the tighter supply will be.Property type and style also affect supply. For example, in high land value locations, the supply of houses rarely changes, because its rarely economical to complete small sub-divisions in high-land-value locations, so the number of houses/townhouses remains unchanged. However, the supply of apartments can more readily change e.g. when a developer buys a commercial site and builds a residential tower. An example of a property type on the opposite end of the scale is Victorian houses. Virtually no one is building Victorian houses anymore, so their supply is finite. In fact, some probablySubscribe via www.investopoly.com.au/emailDo you have a question? Email: questions@investopoly.com.au or for a faster response, post a comment on the episode's video over on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@investopolypodcast/podcasts If you're interested in working with my team and me, discover how we can work together here: https://prosolution.com.au/prospective-client/If this episode resonated with you, please leave a rating on your favourite podcast platform. Subscribe to my weekly blog: https://www.prosolution.com.au/stay-connected/ Buy a one of Stuart's books for ONLY $20 including delivery. Use the discount code blog: https://prosolution.com.au/books/DOWNLOAD our 97-point financial health checklist here: https://prosolution.com.au/download-checklist/IMPORTANT: This podcast provides general information about finance, taxes, and credit. This means that the content does not consider your specific objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is crucial for you to assess whether the information is suitable for your circumstances before taking any actions based on it. If you find yourself uncertain about the relevance or your specific needs, it is advisable to seek advice from a licensed and trustworthy professional.

This is the second part of a two-part blog about investing in commercial property (you can read part one here). Now that you have a broad understanding of commercial property attributes, the next topic to discuss is how you can successfully invest in commercial property.Why type of commercial property do I recommend?Personally, at the moment I invest in commercial offices, and recommend the same to my advisory clients.Not retail propertyI do not invest in retail property because the profit margins in the retail sector have been under increasing pressure and landlords are not immune to the impact of these pressures. Rental yields are already relatively low in the retail sector, and they could be compressed further, which will adversely affect asset values. Overall, I don’t find this sector attractive.Not industrial propertyWhilst the high rental yields that industrial property offers is certainly very attractive, there are two downsides. Firstly, industrial properties tend to have a single tenant (i.e. no tenant diversification) which could lead to protected periods of vacancy (3-6 months is not uncommon). Secondly, these assets tend to provide very little (no) scope for improvement.I prefer offices for these reasonsI am more attracted to office buildings because it offers tenant diversification i.e. an office building might have 20-40 tenants, so the likelihood of a materially lower income due to vacancy is lower. In addition, office buildings can provide scope to add value to the asset. There are two primary ways to do this.Firstly, you can ensure the building offers the same amenities that newly built towers do. That can include a refurbished foyer/atrium (so its attractive for staff and clients to visit), end-of-trip facilities (such as showers, bike racks and so on), offices that are already fit out and ready to be occupied, etc. These capital improvements are all aimed at achieving a higher rent per sqm.Secondly, you can improve the landlord’s relationship with the tenants. Ensuring tenants are well looked after and satisfied with the building is critical in reducing tenant turnover/vacancy and maximising rent. Weighted Average Lease Expiry (Subscribe via www.investopoly.com.au/emailDo you have a question? Email: questions@investopoly.com.au or for a faster response, post a comment on the episode's video over on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@investopolypodcast/podcasts If you're interested in working with my team and me, discover how we can work together here: https://prosolution.com.au/prospective-client/If this episode resonated with you, please leave a rating on your favourite podcast platform. Subscribe to my weekly blog: https://www.prosolution.com.au/stay-connected/ Buy a one of Stuart's books for ONLY $20 including delivery. Use the discount code blog: https://prosolution.com.au/books/DOWNLOAD our 97-point financial health checklist here: https://prosolution.com.au/download-checklist/IMPORTANT: This podcast provides general information about finance, taxes, and credit. This means that the content does not consider your specific objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is crucial for you to assess whether the information is suitable for your circumstances before taking any actions based on it. If you find yourself uncertain about the relevance or your specific needs, it is advisable to seek advice from a licensed and trustworthy professional.

I believe that most people would be well-served by investing in various asset classes, including shares and property. I do not believe that any one asset class is superior. They all have their pros and cons which you can balance out in a diversified investment portfolio, which could include commercial property.Commercial property does have some wonderfully attractive attributes but it’s important to introduce it into your portfolio at the right time (stage of life) and of course, invest in the right asset using the right methodology.I will explain this in a two-part blog. This first part will provide an introduction to commercial property. The second part will consider how to successfully invest in this asset class.Attraction to commercial propertyMost investors are very familiar with residential property as an investment option. As I have highlighted in this blog many times, residential property is a growth asset because it provides most of its total return in the form of capital growth and proportionately very little income.One of the main attractions to commercial property is that it typically provides a higher level of income, which may be particularly attractive if you are close to retirement, or you already own a few residential investment properties.Types of commercial propertyCommercial properties can have a varying array of attributes and no two properties are likely to be identical. That said, there are three broad categories of commercial property:§ Office: An office building is usually a multi-level building that has multiple tenants. These buildings are typically situated in central, well-established locations (CBD or suburban hubs), which adds to their scarcity and tends to drive capital growth.§ Retail: this includes retail shops in suburban shopping strips, mixed-use premises, and specialised properties such as service stations and restaurants. Because these assets are typically located in high-demand locations, they tend to generate lower rental yields.§ Industrial: this includes industrial sheds, bulky goods centres (bunnings) and the so on. These assets tend to be located in outer, fringe locations and as such may offer higher rental yields.How does commercial differ from residential?Given most people have an understanding of resiSubscribe via www.investopoly.com.au/emailDo you have a question? Email: questions@investopoly.com.au or for a faster response, post a comment on the episode's video over on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@investopolypodcast/podcasts If you're interested in working with my team and me, discover how we can work together here: https://prosolution.com.au/prospective-client/If this episode resonated with you, please leave a rating on your favourite podcast platform. Subscribe to my weekly blog: https://www.prosolution.com.au/stay-connected/ Buy a one of Stuart's books for ONLY $20 including delivery. Use the discount code blog: https://prosolution.com.au/books/DOWNLOAD our 97-point financial health checklist here: https://prosolution.com.au/download-checklist/IMPORTANT: This podcast provides general information about finance, taxes, and credit. This means that the content does not consider your specific objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is crucial for you to assess whether the information is suitable for your circumstances before taking any actions based on it. If you find yourself uncertain about the relevance or your specific needs, it is advisable to seek advice from a licensed and trustworthy professional.

Last week, I shared what risks and opportunities investment markets could offer us during 2022. These market expectations helped my wife and I set our personal, relationship, business and financial goals for 2022.It is stating the obvious to so say that goal setting is important. I believe that if you aim at nothing, often that is exactly what you will achieve; nothing! Goal setting gives you more control over where your life is heading. Drive the bus. Don’t merely be a passenger on it.Part 2: Goal setting processThis blog sets out the goal setting process that my wife and I followed this year. However, I must say that I don’t think there is a right or wrong goal setting approach. It’s simply about finding the approach and process that suits you. Hopefully this blog gives you some ideas and a broad framework.Some tips I have learnt over the yearsI have two tips that I would like to share with you to help you set goals.Firstly, make sure your goal is specific, realistic and measurable. For example, a goal of “get fit” or “lose weight” is useless because it’s too vague. You must be specific, so that you can measure your progress.Secondly, don’t be afraid to set a low bar, especially if this is the first time you have set this goal, or you have failed to achieve it in the past. Remember, some progress is better than none at all and you can always increase the goal/target during the year. For example, you might be super motivated to get into shape this year and be tempted to set a goal of exercising 6 days per week. The problem is that for most people, this will be too hard to stick to for the whole year. And the reality is that if you exercised 3 times per week for say 42 out of 52 weeks, it would go a very long way to helping you achieve your end goal. Also, don’t set too many goals. Unrealistic goals are very demotivating.For example, to illustrate these two tips above, my health goals read like this; (1) exercise for 40 minutes at least 3 times per week – I track this (and other goals) using an app called Easy Habits, (2) never eat after 8:30pm and (3) I can eat whatever I want one day per week (i.e. one cheat day).Remember, when it comes to completing goals, consistency way more important than effort. Just 1% of improvement/effort every day for a year will result a Subscribe via www.investopoly.com.au/emailDo you have a question? Email: questions@investopoly.com.au or for a faster response, post a comment on the episode's video over on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@investopolypodcast/podcasts If you're interested in working with my team and me, discover how we can work together here: https://prosolution.com.au/prospective-client/If this episode resonated with you, please leave a rating on your favourite podcast platform. Subscribe to my weekly blog: https://www.prosolution.com.au/stay-connected/ Buy a one of Stuart's books for ONLY $20 including delivery. Use the discount code blog: https://prosolution.com.au/books/DOWNLOAD our 97-point financial health checklist here: https://prosolution.com.au/download-checklist/IMPORTANT: This podcast provides general information about finance, taxes, and credit. This means that the content does not consider your specific objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is crucial for you to assess whether the information is suitable for your circumstances before taking any actions based on it. If you find yourself uncertain about the relevance or your specific needs, it is advisable to seek advice from a licensed and trustworthy professional.

It is stating the obvious to say that goal setting is important. The fact is, if you aim at nothing, often that is exactly what you will achieve; nothing!Each year my wife and I set personal, relationship, business and financial goals. We almost always achieve all the goals we set for ourselves each year. I want to share the process which we’ve just completed and share what I think 2022 might bring us investment-opportunity-wise, as this will help you set realistic goals.Part 1: Investment risks and opportunities that 2022 might bringOn one hand, you should never let markets dictate your investment strategy or decisions. Market sentiment almost always reflected short-term fears and greed – neither of which are any use when making long-term financial decisions. However, understanding markets is helpful in prioritising which goals are most important to implement in the next 12 months.For example, if you plan to invest in shares and property, but feel shares are wildly over-valued, then you could conclude to invest in property in 2022 and reconsider shares in 2023.Therefore, I think it is useful to consider what opportunities and risks markets might present during 2022.Australian property market in 2022The challenge with forming a view on the property market is that the past 12 months has been influenced by very slow supply i.e. fewer investment grade houses for sale. As such, some buyers have been driven by FOMO and been prepared to overpay for property just to “get into the market”.Listings in Brisbane are about one third below their usual volume and stock levels in Melbourne and Sydney are also lower, although certainly not to the same extent as Brisbane. Listing numbers in regional locations, particularly beach-side locations, are also chronically low.If supply remains tight i.e. there are fewer properties than there are buyers, property prices will continue to appreciate, albeit at a slower rate than in 2021. Supply will eventually increase because higher prices encourage more sellers to come to market. However, I don’t think that will happen until the Covid risk disappears. Of course, no one knows when that will happen!Price becomes more important the further you move down the quality scaleFor the sake of this example, let’s assume that Covid evaporates over the courSubscribe via www.investopoly.com.au/emailDo you have a question? Email: questions@investopoly.com.au or for a faster response, post a comment on the episode's video over on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@investopolypodcast/podcasts If you're interested in working with my team and me, discover how we can work together here: https://prosolution.com.au/prospective-client/If this episode resonated with you, please leave a rating on your favourite podcast platform. Subscribe to my weekly blog: https://www.prosolution.com.au/stay-connected/ Buy a one of Stuart's books for ONLY $20 including delivery. Use the discount code blog: https://prosolution.com.au/books/DOWNLOAD our 97-point financial health checklist here: https://prosolution.com.au/download-checklist/IMPORTANT: This podcast provides general information about finance, taxes, and credit. This means that the content does not consider your specific objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is crucial for you to assess whether the information is suitable for your circumstances before taking any actions based on it. If you find yourself uncertain about the relevance or your specific needs, it is advisable to seek advice from a licensed and trustworthy professional.

For my final podcast for 2021, I thought it would be interesting to look back to see how various investment asset-classes performed. This is important for two reasons. Firstly, it is wise to benchmark your investment returns so that you can assess relative performance. Secondly, it serves as a salient reminder about the cost of delay and procrastination.Short-term returns are unimportantIn isolation, short term returns are meaningless. That’s because your focus as an investor must be on maximising medium to long term investment returns. What can I invest in today that is likely to generate the highest returns over the next 5 to 10 years? That is the question you must ask yourself.Therefore, it’s important to highlight at the beginning of this blog that you should not put too much importance on short-term (i.e. 1 year) investment returns. Resist the temptation to guess what asset class will perform best next year. Instead, ask yourself which asset class or investment will produce the highest returns over the next 5+ years i.e. between 2022 and 2027.Share marketsIt was a year of two halves in share markets this year. The first half benefited from strong price appreciation, particularly for value stocks. The second half was adversely impacted by a few things including the risk that higher inflation may not be transitory, interest rate hikes occurring sooner than expected, central banks tapering QE and more recently, the potential impact of the new Omnicom variant.The table below sets out returns until the end of November 2021 for the main geographical markets.https://www.prosolution.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Equity-market-returns-table.pngEmerging markets predominantly include China, Taiwan, South Korea and India. They have been impacted by all the concerns listed above plus many Chinese-specific matters including diplomatic and trade-related tensions, Evergrande default (that occurred last week), tech industry crackdown and economic growth concerns.This has conspired to make emerging markets the most attractively priced sub-asset class, behind the UK market, as illustrated in the table below.Expected returns are calculated by Research Affiliates, LSubscribe via www.investopoly.com.au/emailDo you have a question? Email: questions@investopoly.com.au or for a faster response, post a comment on the episode's video over on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@investopolypodcast/podcasts If you're interested in working with my team and me, discover how we can work together here: https://prosolution.com.au/prospective-client/If this episode resonated with you, please leave a rating on your favourite podcast platform. Subscribe to my weekly blog: https://www.prosolution.com.au/stay-connected/ Buy a one of Stuart's books for ONLY $20 including delivery. Use the discount code blog: https://prosolution.com.au/books/DOWNLOAD our 97-point financial health checklist here: https://prosolution.com.au/download-checklist/IMPORTANT: This podcast provides general information about finance, taxes, and credit. This means that the content does not consider your specific objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is crucial for you to assess whether the information is suitable for your circumstances before taking any actions based on it. If you find yourself uncertain about the relevance or your specific needs, it is advisable to seek advice from a licensed and trustworthy professional.

Discover why paying Capital Gains Tax (CGT) can be a sign of investment success. Learn to navigate the complexities of CGT calculations and how different entities like companies and trusts are treated. Uncover exemptions for main residences and ways to minimize tax through smart selling strategies. Plus, gain insights on the impact of inheritance on tax responsibilities. Personalize your approach to tax for better financial outcomes!