Some buyers’ agents promote investing in more affordable locations. I can understand why some investors might be attracted to follow their advice. But it’s not until you delve into the theory and evidence that it becomes blatantly obvious that such investments have a high probability of under-performing.
Here’s an example I saw on social media
I noticed a buyers’ agent advertise that he bought
this "north Brisbane" property for a client for $530,000. He estimated that the rental income would be $480 per week. The land size is large. It’s on 1006 sqm, which apparently has subdivision upside. Sounds good?
Firstly, a bit of research revealed that this property is located 17kms north of Toowoomba, not Brisbane. In fact, it’s over 140 kms from the Brisbane CBD.
Secondly, it’s not going to work as an investment for the following reasons:
§ Toowoomba has a population of only just over 120,000 people. It’s a very small city with plenty of vacant land surrounding it. The property is located in a new estate surrounded by literally an endless supply of vacant land.
§ The land was purchased for $90,500 in March 2007 and a 5-bedroom home was constructed on it. Whilst the land may have appreciated in value since 2007, the value of the dwelling has (and continues to) depreciated. This is evidenced by the past growth rate. The completed property first sold in September 2013 for $445,000. Therefore, over the past 7 years the overall value of the property has appreciated by a mere 2.5% p.a. (inflation was 1.7% p.a. over that period).
§ Apparently, the property will rent for $480 per week. That equates to a gross yield of 4.7% p.a., which is high by capital city standards. But it’s indicative of the fact that the property is mostly building value, not land value. Most importantly, a 14-year-old, 5-bedroom house will start to require an increasing amount of ongoing maintenance, which will diminish the property’s net income.
At first glance this asset might appear to be a good investment because of its affordability i.e. low price compared to capital cities and high rental income. However, it is very clear that it doesn’t have the attributes to drive any meaningful capital growth. The rental income will diminish over time unless capital improvements are made. This is not an “investment”.
But there are lots of similar exam
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