Unhedged

Electronic Arts, a publicly traded company, was just purchased for $55bn by a consortium of investors led by Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner. The investors included the Saudis and Silver Lake Partners, one of the smartest players in private equity. Today on the show, Robert Armstrong speaks with US finance editor James Fontanella-Khan and US deals correspondent Oliver Barnes about the dollars behind the deal. Also, they go long and short a new wave of M&A. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Concerns are rising as First Brands Group prepares for bankruptcy amid massive debt, while Tricolor, a subprime auto lender, faces troubles linked to shifting migration patterns. The hosts discuss the implications of these cases as potential warning signs in credit markets. They delve into the complexities of private credit and how it obscures true leverage levels. With corporate bond spreads narrowing, questions arise about the sustainability of this market exuberance. Plus, a lighthearted debate over collective nouns for canaries adds some humor to the discussion.

The dollar has plunged nearly 10% this year, raising eyebrows about the stability of American institutions. Traders are hedging their bets as research reveals a shocking shift in hedging rates for U.S. inflows. The hosts delve into how recent Fed moves are influencing this dynamic and what political factors may be at play. Predictions about the dollar vary wildly as year-end approaches. Plus, they explore career choices and the bizarre world of matcha mania, making for a lively discussion.

The hosts dive into Trump's proposal for companies to report earnings only twice a year, weighing the pros and cons of such a shift. They discuss the implications for market transparency and compare reporting practices with Europe. The conversation also touches on the automation of reporting and the potential reduction of burdens on companies. In a lighter segment, one host critiques smart glasses as intrusive, while the other shares the unexpected joys of empty nesting after sending her daughter off to university.

Antoine Gara, the US private equity editor at the FT, delves into the challenges facing private equity in a high-interest rate environment. He highlights how firms are innovating to secure funding without closing shop, but warns that the clock is ticking. The discussion also covers the complexities of valuations and the growing delay in IPOs, alongside the risks of introducing retail investors to private equity. They humorously contrast celebrity fashion choices while dissecting the stability of advisory firms in this volatile market.

Aiden Reiter, an expert on the employment market and writer for the Unhedged Newsletter, joins Rob Armstrong to unpack the recent revelation of 911,000 lost jobs in the U.S. They discuss the challenges in measuring labor data and implications for the economy. The conversation spans the complexities of inflation and economic disparities, particularly affecting lower-income families. They also touch on the impact of immigration policies and share some light-hearted reflections on fashion trends and new wealthy figures.

Live from a vibrant festival, the hosts dive into the chaotic landscape of 2025, marked by unpredictable tariffs and a shifting labor force. They humorously unpack the 'taco trade' and its surprising market impacts due to political antics. The discussion moves to the complexities of bond markets and how tariffs breed investor complacency. A serious take on gold investment debates contrasts with a celebratory toast to champagne, highlighting diverse perspectives on market trends.

Brendan Greeley, a former Financial Times reporter and current PhD candidate at Princeton studying finance history, joins the discussion about the evolving role of central banks. He delves into the historical pressures faced by the Federal Reserve, particularly during political tensions, and emphasizes the delicate balance of maintaining independence. Greeley shares fascinating insights on the Fed's accountability, critiques surrounding its policies, and wraps up with a light-hearted glimpse into his forthcoming book on the future of the dollar.

Valuations are at risky highs while employment figures shrink, stirring fears of an impending market collapse. The hosts reflect on past economic predictions, particularly the 2008 crisis, revealing the balance between hope and realism. They delve into the unpredictable financial landscape, spotlighting the role of big tech and AI in investments. Financial instability signs are compared to historical downturns, and the current stability in the private real estate market is celebrated, all while enjoying light-hearted banter about September's pleasant weather.

Brooke Masters, the US managing editor at the Financial Times, dives into the surprising reality of government control over the chip industry, specifically Intel, during the Trump administration. She and Katie Martin explore how this intervention challenges traditional free market principles and intertwines national security with corporate affairs. They also discuss Cracker Barrel's rebranding controversy, corporate anxiety in a politically charged environment, and the unique challenges that both large and small companies face in this tumultuous landscape.