Unhedged Hedging the dollar
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Sep 23, 2025 The dollar has plunged nearly 10% this year, raising eyebrows about the stability of American institutions. Traders are hedging their bets as research reveals a shocking shift in hedging rates for U.S. inflows. The hosts delve into how recent Fed moves are influencing this dynamic and what political factors may be at play. Predictions about the dollar vary wildly as year-end approaches. Plus, they explore career choices and the bizarre world of matcha mania, making for a lively discussion.
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Buying US Stocks Doesn’t Mean Buying Dollars
- Global investors still buy US stocks but increasingly hedge currency exposure by selling dollars when buying US assets.
- That hedging demand has helped drive the dollar down about 10% year-to-date.
Classic New York Breakfast Cart Tale
- Robert Armstrong describes having a cinnamon raisin bagel with cream cheese bought from an aluminum cart in New York.
- He uses the detail to joke about classic New York breakfast culture.
Massive Shift To Hedged US Flows
- Hedge rates on US assets swung from near zero to over 80% of inflows hedged this year, says Deutsche Bank research.
- That rapid shift flips a decades‑long dynamic where owning US assets implicitly meant dollar exposure.