Unhedged

Discover the journey of young Warren Buffett from obscurity to wealth. Uncover how his humble habits and keen investment strategies made him a folk hero. Hear about his early obsessions, entrepreneurial endeavors, and the influence of mentor Benjamin Graham. Learn about Buffett's unique strategies, like the cigar-butt approach, and how he transformed Berkshire Hathaway. This fascinating exploration reveals how Buffett's early advantages evolved—and why his edge has diminished in the modern investment landscape.

Alan Livsey, an asset management reporter for the Financial Times, joins the discussion on the intriguing results of the FT’s 2025 stock-picking contest. He highlights winners from the silver surge and discusses the impressive performance of emerging sectors like quantum computing. The hosts reflect on their contest outcomes, revealing personal strategies and risk assessments. Alan shares his gold stock picks and short positions, while Katie and Rob delve into defense stocks and S&P selections, adding layers of strategic discourse on market predictions.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell faces a potential criminal indictment, prompting a discussion on the implications for the Fed's credibility. The extraordinary timing of Powell's Sunday statement raises questions about political pressure. Katie and Rob explore how such controversies can impact the central bank's communication strategy and market reactions. They also suggest Wall Street should rally in defense of Fed independence. On a lighter note, they dive into the quirky 'Are You Dead?' app and the joys of reading physical books.

Markets continue their sunny cruise, whistling along as the world is upended by nationalistic meddling in both corporations and other countries. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong discuss the stunning resilience of the global economy. Also, they go short bank consolidation and short Grok nudifying people. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Jamie Smyth, the US Energy Editor known for his expertise in oil markets and geopolitics, dives deep into the complexities of Venezuela's oil situation. He discusses the implications of Trump’s actions against Maduro and explores whether Venezuelan heavy oil holds long-term value despite its high production costs. Smyth highlights the interplay between refiners and major companies and why the oil market appears unaffected. He also touches on the investment required to revitalize production and the broader geopolitical dynamics affecting oil prices.

David Keohane and Leo Lewis from the Financial Times dive into the evolution of private equity in Japan. Keohane discusses how global firms initially faced backlash, labeled as 'vulture funds.' Lewis explains Japan's risk-averse corporate culture that clashed with private investors’ methods. They highlight major deals and the current surge in private equity activity, driven by demographic shifts and government support. The duo also flags potential risks, pondering how the future landscape of Japan's corporate world might transform.

Join John Foley, Editor of the FT's Smarty Pants Companies and Investment column, as he participates in a whimsical quiz with Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong. They tackle quirky questions about Trump tariffs, luxury food prices, and even a playful comparison of Hasbro to Pop Mart's staggering market cap. As the quiz heats up, personal New Year’s resolutions emerge, revealing some amusing goals. John's sharp instincts lead him to victory, but the real fun lies in their banter and wild guesses!

Michael Burry, the savvy investor famed for predicting the 2008 financial crisis, shares insights into his current market strategies. He discusses his short positions on tech giants like Nvidia and Palantir, questioning their high valuations. Burry also delves into the influence of passive investing on market dynamics and warns of a potential prolonged bear market. He dismisses Bitcoin while advocating for gold as a safer haven. This rare interview reflects on fame, market cynicism, and the historical patterns of investment cycles.

Listeners are treated to intriguing insights of why companies obsess over their share prices, driven by incentives and borrowing costs. The discussion also delves into UBS's potential relocation from Switzerland and frustrations with EU regulations. They tackle the muted market effects of geopolitical shocks, like U.S. actions in Venezuela, and explore the controversial realms of prediction markets. Additionally, they humorously analyze the pitfalls of gift cards while dreaming of crypto islands for libertarian colonization.

Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong dive into key economic indicators, discussing the rise in unemployment and contrasting payroll and household data. They analyze the recent drop in inflation to 2.7% while cautioning against celebrating too soon. The duo debates the potential new Fed chair and the risks of cutting rates, which could lead to renewed inflation. In a lighter vein, they critique cringeworthy holiday videos from private equity and even take a cheeky jab at Wham!'s infamous festive tune, 'Last Christmas.'