Unhedged

Ian Smith, a Financial Times reporter specializing in markets, joins the conversation to unveil the shift from U.S. investments towards Europe. He delves into the reasons behind this trend, highlighting rising political risks and the decline of the S&P 500. The discussion touches on the growing preference for European assets among institutional investors, the intriguing dynamics of currency hedging, and the implications for the dollar's future. Smith also adds a playful twist by exploring asset allocation strategies and economic sentiment.

The hosts dissect a surprising dip in GDP, revealing the complexities behind the negative growth figure. They explore the disconnect between consumer spending and economic data, highlighting the K-shaped recovery’s impact on different income levels. Discussions also touch on the repercussions of declining oil prices and reduced imports on both consumption and production. Tariff strategies and their influence on the economy, especially for low-income Americans, take center stage, making for a nuanced look at current market dynamics.

International cargo freight is facing a serious decline, raising alarms about empty shelves just in time for the holidays. The hosts debate whether political influences will affect trade dynamics, especially in light of previous tariff impacts on consumer costs. While exploring the complexities of U.S.-China trade, they also examine a mixed investor sentiment highlighted by a popular survey. The conversation lightens up with a humorous discussion about fast food preferences, including gourmet treats versus beloved classics, capturing the joy of culinary indulgence.

The current administration rode in on a wave of support from America’s traders, lenders and money managers. But that might be changing. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong talks to the FT’s US finance editor, James Fontanella-Khan, about what the titans of Wall Street really think about President Donald Trump. Also they go long AC Milan and short the market. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

With the continuing decline in the price of US Treasuries, Katie, Rob and Aiden take up the debate about the future of America’s status as a truly exceptional safe haven. Today on the show, the trio discuss the damage President Donald Trump has already done and ask how long it will last. Afterwards, they take long and short bets on 10-year Treasuries, the S&P 500 and the euro/dollar trade. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

John Foley, Head of Lex and a tech enthusiast, dives into the recent plunge of Nvidia shares due to U.S. export bans on technology to China, impacting their H20 chip forecast. He sheds light on the broader implications for AI development and the geopolitical landscape affecting tech markets. The conversation also covers challenges in semiconductor regulations, market confidence, and the rise of new ventures like DeepSeek, all while keeping a humorous twist with the mention of 'Sperm Racing.'

High tariffs on Chinese imports have initiated a complex trade war that could impact both the U.S. and China significantly. The discussion dives into how these tariffs affect American businesses and consumers, highlighting the challenges of reviving domestic manufacturing. China's political resilience is examined, revealing its leverage in negotiations despite U.S. assumptions. The hosts also tackle trade deficits and their implications for global finance, all while mixing in humorous commentary and metaphorical fun throughout.

The hosts dive into the chaos of trade wars and their impact on investor confidence. They discuss the burdens of tariffs on U.S. small businesses, spotlighting a comic book store owner's struggles. The complexities of sophisticated trading strategies are examined, alongside the risks they pose in volatile markets. Trust in U.S. Treasuries takes a hit as concerns about inconsistent policies grow. Lastly, they reflect on hints of change in economic policy, balancing skepticism and optimism for global trade's resilience.

The discussion kicks off with the surprising rise in Treasury yields, challenging conventional wisdom about bond prices. Political actions spark market volatility, as tariffs reshape investor sentiment. The hosts inject humor into their reflections on past predictions while advocating for patience over impulsive buying during market dips. They analyze how shifting global trade dynamics affect risk and investment strategies, underscoring the importance of vigilance in unpredictable situations. Gold prices surge, signaling a shift in investor behavior that demands caution.

After a surprising tariff announcement, markets took a nosedive, especially in tech and banking. The hosts dissect how these tariffs will hit American consumers hard, acting like hidden taxes. They also humorously discuss unexpected topics, including a playful mock tariff on penguins. Insights into treasury inflation-protected securities shine as a beacon for investors during this chaotic economic period. The complexity of international trade relationships amid tariffs adds another layer of intrigue, revealing the delicate balancing act policymakers must navigate.