Unhedged

Gold prices are soaring, reaching nearly $4,000, and the hosts discuss the factors driving this frenzy. They explore the link between falling real rates and gold’s allure as a safe haven. The debate heats up over whether gold is a speculative bubble or a genuine portfolio hedge. Central banks are loading up on gold amid global uncertainty, while retail demand surges through gold ETFs. Concerns about Japan’s economy lead to recommendations for shorting the yen and investing in Japanese stocks, highlighting volatility amid changing policies.

Rob and Katie dive into the looming government shutdown and its potential economic fallout. They explore the staggering investment in AI and question whether it's truly driving U.S. growth. Concerns arise over inflated AI valuations and their implications. Additionally, they shed light on the shadow banking sector, revealing its massive exposure risks. The discussion also touches on the unsettling reality of cyber attacks and the rise of Covid-19 cases, painting a vivid picture of today's market challenges.

Electronic Arts, a publicly traded company, was just purchased for $55bn by a consortium of investors led by Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner. The investors included the Saudis and Silver Lake Partners, one of the smartest players in private equity. Today on the show, Robert Armstrong speaks with US finance editor James Fontanella-Khan and US deals correspondent Oliver Barnes about the dollars behind the deal. Also, they go long and short a new wave of M&A. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Concerns are rising as First Brands Group prepares for bankruptcy amid massive debt, while Tricolor, a subprime auto lender, faces troubles linked to shifting migration patterns. The hosts discuss the implications of these cases as potential warning signs in credit markets. They delve into the complexities of private credit and how it obscures true leverage levels. With corporate bond spreads narrowing, questions arise about the sustainability of this market exuberance. Plus, a lighthearted debate over collective nouns for canaries adds some humor to the discussion.

The dollar has plunged nearly 10% this year, raising eyebrows about the stability of American institutions. Traders are hedging their bets as research reveals a shocking shift in hedging rates for U.S. inflows. The hosts delve into how recent Fed moves are influencing this dynamic and what political factors may be at play. Predictions about the dollar vary wildly as year-end approaches. Plus, they explore career choices and the bizarre world of matcha mania, making for a lively discussion.

The hosts dive into Trump's proposal for companies to report earnings only twice a year, weighing the pros and cons of such a shift. They discuss the implications for market transparency and compare reporting practices with Europe. The conversation also touches on the automation of reporting and the potential reduction of burdens on companies. In a lighter segment, one host critiques smart glasses as intrusive, while the other shares the unexpected joys of empty nesting after sending her daughter off to university.

Antoine Gara, the US private equity editor at the FT, delves into the challenges facing private equity in a high-interest rate environment. He highlights how firms are innovating to secure funding without closing shop, but warns that the clock is ticking. The discussion also covers the complexities of valuations and the growing delay in IPOs, alongside the risks of introducing retail investors to private equity. They humorously contrast celebrity fashion choices while dissecting the stability of advisory firms in this volatile market.

Aiden Reiter, an expert on the employment market and writer for the Unhedged Newsletter, joins Rob Armstrong to unpack the recent revelation of 911,000 lost jobs in the U.S. They discuss the challenges in measuring labor data and implications for the economy. The conversation spans the complexities of inflation and economic disparities, particularly affecting lower-income families. They also touch on the impact of immigration policies and share some light-hearted reflections on fashion trends and new wealthy figures.

Live from a vibrant festival, the hosts dive into the chaotic landscape of 2025, marked by unpredictable tariffs and a shifting labor force. They humorously unpack the 'taco trade' and its surprising market impacts due to political antics. The discussion moves to the complexities of bond markets and how tariffs breed investor complacency. A serious take on gold investment debates contrasts with a celebratory toast to champagne, highlighting diverse perspectives on market trends.

Brendan Greeley, a former Financial Times reporter and current PhD candidate at Princeton studying finance history, joins the discussion about the evolving role of central banks. He delves into the historical pressures faced by the Federal Reserve, particularly during political tensions, and emphasizes the delicate balance of maintaining independence. Greeley shares fascinating insights on the Fed's accountability, critiques surrounding its policies, and wraps up with a light-hearted glimpse into his forthcoming book on the future of the dollar.