Unhedged The mystery of the vanishing jobs
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Sep 11, 2025 
Aiden Reiter, an expert on the employment market and writer for the Unhedged Newsletter, joins Rob Armstrong to unpack the recent revelation of 911,000 lost jobs in the U.S. They discuss the challenges in measuring labor data and implications for the economy. The conversation spans the complexities of inflation and economic disparities, particularly affecting lower-income families. They also touch on the impact of immigration policies and share some light-hearted reflections on fashion trends and new wealthy figures.
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Unemployment Rate Masks Slowing Job Creation
- The US unemployment rate is 4.3% but fewer jobs are being created monthly, signaling mixed labor-market health.
- A declining jobs-creation trend matters even if unemployment looks reasonable because it signals weakening momentum.
Revisions Reveal A Sharper Slowdown
- Recent monthly reports and revisions show average job additions around 29,000 over three months, a sharp slowdown.
- Revisions have materially changed the recent picture and revealed periods of negative job growth post-revision.
Survey Problems Inflate Early Revisions
- Counting jobs is hard due to falling survey response rates, which increases early estimate revisions.
- Final revised numbers remain reliable, but first-release data quality has declined over time.