Unhedged

The Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut sent shockwaves through the markets, revealing that we're in anything but normal times. Traders were spooked by the Fed's cautious outlook on the economy. The conversation dives into the complexities of political influence on monetary policy and the challenges of forecasting amidst rising inflation. The hosts also mix in some holiday cheer, debating the merits of thoughtful gifts versus the impersonal nature of gift cards, while sharing their festive wish lists.

Craig Coben, former global head of equity capital markets at Bank of America and now a contributor to FT Alphaville, dives into the current state of IPOs and the rising influence of private equity. He discusses why companies are staying private longer and the challenges they face prepping for an IPO. The conversation touches on the regulatory impacts on public markets and contrasts the recovering US IPO landscape with struggles in Europe and Asia. Coben also shares insights on the societal importance of robust public markets.

James Fontanella-Khan, the US deals reporter for the Financial Times, discusses the anticipated resurgence of mergers and acquisitions after a significant lull. He examines potential shifts in antitrust policies and the intriguing dynamics within the advertising sector, driven by AI. Fontanella-Khan also sheds light on notable trends in retail and insurance M&A activities, emphasizing private equity's role in revitalizing companies. The conversation takes a playful turn when they dive into thrifting and vintage clothing, adding a splash of personality to the serious business talk.

Explore how global events like Ukraine and Syria are reshaping market dynamics and investor behavior. Discover why markets often miss the mark in predicting these geopolitical upheavals. Enjoy a humorous take on the cultural quirks of disappointing Christmas experiences, complete with tales of 'crappy Santas.' Plus, insights on how peace in Ukraine could spark a turnaround in European markets, highlighting the importance of understanding geopolitical implications for long-term growth.

The discussion kicks off with current oil prices and what could spark a drop. The hosts delve into the intricacies of geopolitics and its impact on oil pricing, navigating domestic policies and market sentiments. OPEC Plus's influence, particularly Saudi Arabia's production cuts, is analyzed alongside global demand shifts. The challenges of increasing domestic oil production are highlighted, alongside predictions for future pricing scenarios shaped by historical events. They seamlessly blend serious topics with light-hearted banter about brunch and democracy.

Discussing the possibility of a bubble in the US stock market, the hosts explore the remarkable performance and its sustainability. They consider the implications of US exceptionalism and the psychological 'TINA' phenomenon on investment strategies. Delving into the discrepancies of CEO compensation, they question the ethics and impact on corporate governance. The conversation balances serious economic analysis with light-hearted anecdotes, ensuring a thought-provoking yet entertaining discussion.

Robin Wigglesworth, Head of the FT's Alphaville blog, dives into the astonishing findings of Professor Hendrik Bessembinder's research on stock market performance. Discover how one stock boasted a staggering 265,528,900 percent return, while others like Kansas City Southern showcased historic wealth compounding. The hosts discuss the contrasting capital intensity of railways versus today's tech giants, and debate the merits of active stock picking versus passive investing. Get insights into enduring stocks and the quirky world of niche financial products!

Chris Giles, the FT's economics commentator and author of the Central Bank's newsletter, joins the conversation about the impact of recently imposed tariffs by President-elect Trump. They scrutinize whether these tariffs will genuinely drive inflation or merely adjust prices. The discussion also dives into the historical influence of tariffs on washing machine prices and examines market reactions to new political appointments. Additionally, they reflect on the cultural significance of London's Smithfield meat market and its uncertain future.

Dive into 2025 predictions as analysts sift through year-ahead reports, revealing insights on corporate spreads and the AI bubble. Discussions shift to labor market implications, exploring what can go right or wrong in a volatile global landscape. The dangers of consensus in market forecasts are examined, particularly for tech giants. Meanwhile, the hosts weave in humor about grooming habits and holiday turkey prep, making for a light-hearted yet informative episode that blends finance with everyday life.

Discover insights into disinflation trends and demographic shifts impacting future economic growth. The conversation dives into the complexities of inflation, rising national debt, and the irony of government efficiency initiatives. Listeners will learn about the challenges of the U.S. federal budget, especially concerning Social Security and Medicare. Plus, hear about Disney's streaming strategy and Turkey's monetary policy changes. It's a fascinating exploration of how these elements shape investment and economic landscapes.