Robin Wigglesworth, Head of the FT's Alphaville blog, dives into the astonishing findings of Professor Hendrik Bessembinder's research on stock market performance. Discover how one stock boasted a staggering 265,528,900 percent return, while others like Kansas City Southern showcased historic wealth compounding. The hosts discuss the contrasting capital intensity of railways versus today's tech giants, and debate the merits of active stock picking versus passive investing. Get insights into enduring stocks and the quirky world of niche financial products!
Successful stocks prioritize long-term stability and consistent compounding returns over the high-risk, short-term gains often seen with hype-driven investments.
A small fraction of companies significantly boosts overall market returns, emphasizing the importance of diversification in investment strategies to mitigate individual stock risks.
Deep dives
Defining Great Stocks
Great stocks are characterized by their ability to provide consistent long-term returns rather than quick, high profits. The discussion highlights that stocks like GameStop and AMC exemplify the failures of hype-driven investing, which can lead to substantial losses. Instead, the podcast emphasizes that the most successful stocks maintain steady performance, compounding returns over many years. This insight aligns with the timeless investment wisdom of Warren Buffett, suggesting that long-term patience and stability are often more rewarding than chasing volatile returns.
The Power of Compounding Returns
The conversation showcases several historical stocks that have achieved staggering cumulative returns over time, such as Boeing and General Dynamics, with Boeing compounding at an annual rate of nearly 15%. The significance of these returns lies in the power of compounding, where consistent performance over decades results in astronomical growth—21 million percent for Boeing over a century. This perspective shifts the focus from short-term gains to the importance of sustained growth and low risk in investing. The episode argues that avoiding catastrophic losses and generating reliable gains over extended periods can lead to wealth accumulation that far outstrips flashy, one-time successes.
Stock Market Disparities
The podcast reveals a surprising reality of the stock market: a small number of companies drive the vast majority of returns, while many perform poorly or even lose money. Research indicates that while the overall market may have appreciated significantly, most individual stocks have not, with over half producing net losses. This highlights the necessity for smart investing strategies, such as indexing, as capturing a few exceptional stocks can overshadow the underperformance of the majority. The episode concludes that the critical takeaway for investors is to focus on maintaining a diversified portfolio to secure long-term returns despite the inherent risks of individual stocks.
How would you like a 265,528,900 per cent return on your investment? Would you be interested in that? If so, join us as Rob Armstrong and FT Alphaville’s Robin Wigglesworth discuss the results of Professor Hendrik Bessembinder’s massive number-crunching project, which ranks the best stocks of the past century. The number one performer is pretty incendiary. Also we short break dancing and go triple reverse long on single-stock ETFs.