Unhedged Disinflation, demographics, Doge
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Nov 19, 2024 Discover insights into disinflation trends and demographic shifts impacting future economic growth. The conversation dives into the complexities of inflation, rising national debt, and the irony of government efficiency initiatives. Listeners will learn about the challenges of the U.S. federal budget, especially concerning Social Security and Medicare. Plus, hear about Disney's streaming strategy and Turkey's monetary policy changes. It's a fascinating exploration of how these elements shape investment and economic landscapes.
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Stubborn Inflation
- Inflation may not be cooling down as quickly as predicted, with core CPI rising slightly.
- Certain sectors like housing contribute to this, while energy prices are currently helping restrain overall inflation.
Demographic Impact
- US economic outperformance in the last 25 years was partially due to a growing working-age population.
- This demographic tailwind is expected to diminish in the next 25 years, impacting future asset returns.
Productivity is Key
- The US faces challenges like high asset valuations and debt, requiring increased productivity to maintain growth.
- Automation and technological advancements are crucial for achieving this necessary productivity boost.