Unhedged

Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong dive into key economic indicators, discussing the rise in unemployment and contrasting payroll and household data. They analyze the recent drop in inflation to 2.7% while cautioning against celebrating too soon. The duo debates the potential new Fed chair and the risks of cutting rates, which could lead to renewed inflation. In a lighter vein, they critique cringeworthy holiday videos from private equity and even take a cheeky jab at Wham!'s infamous festive tune, 'Last Christmas.'

Silver's remarkable surge outshines gold and crypto, attracting unique buyers drawn to its thinner market. The hosts compare today's rally to the iconic spike in 2011 while exploring silver's industrial applications in solar and electronics. They discuss the implications of central bank buying and the evolving dynamics of safe assets. Meanwhile, Bitcoin struggles to keep pace, affected by leverage and sentiment. In a lighter twist, nostalgia leads to discussions on the joys of the Christmas goose and delectable mince pies!

Ian Smith, Senior Markets Correspondent at the Financial Times, joins Katie Martin and Robert Armstrong to dissect the surprisingly robust US stock market of 2025 and its outlook for 2026. They discuss how corporate earnings and AI advancements fueled gains, while also exploring the geopolitical influences like Trump’s tariff backtracking. Risks abound, from a potential AI bubble to inflation resurfacing. Ian humorously shorts K-pop Demon Hunters, contrasting it with value stocks, as they all ponder the implications of market consensus and investor sentiment.

Oliver Barnes, a US deals correspondent focused on mergers in Hollywood, joins James Fontanella-Khan, the US financial editor at the Financial Times, for a lively discussion about the bidding war for Warner Bros. Discovery. They delve into Netflix's strategic entry into the auction, the surprising move by Paramount with an all-cash offer, and the implications of antitrust concerns. The conversation also explores the influence of politics on the auction dynamics and how consolidation might benefit indie cinema. Tune in for insights on a pivotal moment in the entertainment industry!

Adam Posen, President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics and former central banker, dives deep into the complexities of inflation and financial stability. He discusses the 'satanic' factors pushing inflation up to 2026, including tariffs and fiscal policy. Posen evaluates potential Fed chair nominees and highlights the risks of political pressure on the Federal Reserve. He also explores AI's potential to boost productivity and ends with light-hearted picks, including a fondness for the New England Patriots and skepticism towards crypto.

Ian Smith, a Senior Markets Correspondent at the Financial Times, dives into the intricacies of bond markets and public finance. He unpacks the UK’s latest budget and its implications for global fiscal strategies. They discuss why gilt markets remained stable despite chaos, the ramifications of the OBR mishap, and the risks of future fiscal consolidation. Ian also highlights a shift towards shorter-term debt issuance, emphasizing political risks that could sway investor confidence, all while playfully debating seasonal treats and cats.

In this discussion, Robin Wigglesworth, editor of FT Alphaville, shares insights on the rising short interest in hedge funds. He explores the implications of shorting behaviors, especially against tech stocks like Bloom Energy and the crypto market. They analyze why hedge funds are cautious around major AI winners despite high expectations. Robin also dives into the mechanics of short selling and market frothiness in tech bond issuance, revealing how strategic shorting can signal shifts in investor sentiment.

Nvidia's earnings report sparks a fiery debate over the AI bubble, leaving listeners questioning the chipmaker's true value. The hosts dive into investor psychology, revealing how fund managers dread missing out on winning stocks. They also analyze the U.S. jobs data, pondering its implications for the Fed and the market. Plus, discussions on hedging strategies and the revival of stimulus checks add depth, while a humorous take on luxury handbag investments highlights market excess.

James Fontanella-Khan, U.S. finance editor at the Financial Times, brings expertise in pharma M&A to the discussion. He explores the fierce battle between Novo Nordisk and Pfizer over Metsera, analyzing whether this merger indicates strength in the sector. The conversation dives into the political pressures facing drug companies, the role of patent cliffs, and dramatic bidding wars that drive high valuations. They also debate if recent Nasdaq trends signify a buying opportunity. A deep dive into the complexities of Big Pharma unfolds!

Explore the idea of a K-shaped economy where wealth disparity is leading to different consumer behaviors. While lower-income shoppers are tightening their belts, upper-income individuals continue to spend freely. Dive into the implications of wealth inequality, job insecurity, and the psychology behind cautious spending after the pandemic. The hosts discuss how market dynamics and passive investing strategies play into the narrative, and raise important ethical questions about using employee banking data in pay negotiations.