Unhedged Three numbers that matter
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Dec 18, 2025 Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong dive into key economic indicators, discussing the rise in unemployment and contrasting payroll and household data. They analyze the recent drop in inflation to 2.7% while cautioning against celebrating too soon. The duo debates the potential new Fed chair and the risks of cutting rates, which could lead to renewed inflation. In a lighter vein, they critique cringeworthy holiday videos from private equity and even take a cheeky jab at Wham!'s infamous festive tune, 'Last Christmas.'
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Job Market Is Softening, But Still Adding
- U.S. jobs data is messy after the government shutdown and shows a slight softening with unemployment rising to 4.6%.
- Private payrolls are still adding modestly, about 50–100k per month, which is 'fine' but not strong.
Fewer Hires Might Sustain Unemployment
- Demographics and lower immigration mean fewer hires are needed to keep unemployment stable, making the 'enough jobs' threshold lower.
- Retail spending is steady in real terms, growing about 1–2% year-on-year, with autos as the weak spot.
CPI Dip Masks Sticky Services Inflation
- U.S. CPI fell to 2.7% in November, well below expectations of 3.1%, driven largely by a benign shelter component.
- Services inflation ex-housing remains elevated in the low-to-mid 3% range, so inflation is down but not decisively at target.