Unhedged A satanic list of inflationary factors
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Dec 4, 2025 
Adam Posen, President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics and former central banker, dives deep into the complexities of inflation and financial stability. He discusses the 'satanic' factors pushing inflation up to 2026, including tariffs and fiscal policy. Posen evaluates potential Fed chair nominees and highlights the risks of political pressure on the Federal Reserve. He also explores AI's potential to boost productivity and ends with light-hearted picks, including a fondness for the New England Patriots and skepticism towards crypto.
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Dollar's Anchor Is Loosening
- Adam Posen argues the dollar's role as a stabilizing reserve is eroding, not collapsing yet.
- He warns a big shock could reveal a full break in the dollar's centrality.
Tariffs And Fiscal Policy Will Raise Inflation
- Posen expects tariffs, fiscal support and other policies to push inflation higher over time.
- He believes these forces will materialize gradually and be felt by mid-2026.
Inflation Expectations Can Hide Under The Surface
- Posen calls out 'unanchored expectations' despite surveys appearing stable today.
- He argues surveys and market indicators can miss shifts that materialize once shocks accumulate.