Middle East Focus

Two years after Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attacks and Israel’s devastating war in Gaza, the two sides have agreed to a new cease-fire. But can it last, and what kind of Middle East has emerged from the turmoil in the interim? In this episode of Middle East Focus, hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj speak with MEI Senior Fellow Paul Salem about how the conflict has reshaped the region’s geopolitical landscape, from Iran’s weakened deterrence and shifting attitudes toward Israel as a prospecitve security partner to the renewed centrality of American power and influence for regional countries. The conversation also explores President Trump’s Gaza peace plan and the uncertain path toward reconstruction, regional integration, and enduring stability in the aftermath of the war.   Recorded on October 14, 2025.   Read Paul Salem's recent article in Al Majalla:  Two years after October 7: a region between disorder and transition

Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen, a Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute and expert on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, dives into the nuances of Trump's 20-point plan for Gaza. She explores its acceptance by both Israel and Hamas and the factors influencing its reception. Lucy discusses the plan's vagueness on Palestinian statehood and its implications for U.S. policy. The conversation highlights the complexities of disarmament, the legitimacy of the Palestinian Authority, and the essential role of sustained international engagement for success.

In this discussion, Mirette F. Mabrouk, a Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute specializing in Egypt and Nile issues, delves into the tensions surrounding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Topics include the historical failures in negotiations and the dam's significance for Ethiopia’s economic aspirations. Mirette highlights Egypt's concerns about water security, the evolving regional power dynamics in the Horn of Africa, and the limited options remaining for Egypt and Sudan post-dam completion. She also suggests the need for external mediation and potential incentives to reach a viable agreement.

Israel’s September 9 strike on Hamas leaders in Doha rattled Gulf capitals and revived a decades-old debate over whether the region needs a NATO-style defensive alliance. MEI Senior Fellow Jason Campbell joins hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj to unpack why past attempts at collective defense have fallen short, whether this moment is different, and what the crisis means for US security strategy in the Middle East.    This episode was recorded on September 24, 2025.

Natan Sachs, a Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute and former director at Brookings, shares his expert insights. He discusses the aftermath of Israel's controversial strike on Hamas officials in Qatar, highlighting its operational failures and Netanyahu's prioritization of military action over diplomacy. Sachs explores Israeli public polarization regarding hostage negotiations versus military objectives, as well as the implications for regional partnerships and potential isolation. The conversation delves into the impacts on U.S.-Israeli relations and the shifting dynamics in Middle Eastern diplomacy.

With Iran’s nuclear program devastated, the reimposition of UN sanctions looming, and Tehran grappling with the fallout of the 12-Day War, is the time ripe for Iran to return to the negotiating table? MEI Distinguished Diplomatic Fellow Alan Eyre — former senior US diplomat and member of the 2015 JCPOA negotiating team — joins hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj to assess whether meaningful US-Iran talks are still possible and what they could achieve amid deep mistrust and escalating pressure. This episode was recorded on September 9, 2025.

Karim Elgendy, a climate, energy, and sustainability expert, discusses the Middle East's pressing water and climate crisis. He highlights Iran's looming water shortages and Iraq's power grid failures, linking these issues to climate change and resource mismanagement. The conversation sheds light on the Gulf's dependence on desalination and ongoing efforts for sustainable water management. Elgendy also explores potential for regional cooperation and technological solutions amid political challenges, emphasizing the urgent need for effective resource strategies.

Fadi Nicolas Nassar, a Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute and a political science professor, dives into Lebanon's tumultuous landscape. He discusses the delicate balance of power between the Lebanese state and Hezbollah, and the vital role of UNIFIL in enforcing peace. Nassar highlights the Lebanese government's push for disarmament of non-state militias and the operational challenges faced by international forces. He underscores the necessity for urgent reforms and strategic clarity as Lebanon seeks to reclaim its sovereignty in a complex regional context.

Mirette Mabrouk, a Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute specializing in Egypt’s economic and security issues, delves into the critical humanitarian crisis in Gaza and its ramifications for Egypt. She discusses Cairo’s concerns over regional stability and domestic outrage. The conversation highlights Egypt's role in ceasefire negotiations and the challenges of aid delivery amid deteriorating conditions. Mabrouk also touches on international perspectives, the complexities of reconstruction plans, and the implications for Palestinian statehood.

Gönül Tol, a Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute and expert on Turkish politics, dives into the intricacies of Erdoğan's power dynamics. She discusses how the shifting landscape of regional conflicts like the Israel-Iran war and violence in Syria is influencing Turkey's foreign policy. The conversation highlights the complexities of U.S.-Turkey relations, Erdoğan's domestic challenges, and his crumbling relationship with the opposition. Tol also unpacks the implications of Turkey's peace process with the PKK and the future of democracy in the country.