Middle East Focus The Gaza Cease-Fire and a Region Reshaped by War
Oct 16, 2025
In this discussion, Paul Salem, a Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute and expert on regional geopolitics, analyzes the recently established Gaza cease-fire and its implications. He highlights how the conflict has altered military dynamics, reduced Iran's deterrence, and reshaped perceptions of Israel. Salem delves into U.S. engagement in the region, the possibility of Palestinian integration without Israeli involvement, and the complexities of Saudi normalization with Israel. He warns about potential radicalization and emphasizes the need for proactive diplomacy.
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Ceasefire Is One Of Two Parallel Arenas
- The Gaza ceasefire halts immediate suffering and frees hostages, but broader regional effects run on separate trajectories.
- Israel's wider strikes reshaped Lebanon and Syria and led to direct attacks on Iran, creating distinct arenas beyond Gaza.
Iran Loses Deterrence As Israel Shows Reach
- Israel demonstrated unprecedented reach and military hegemony across the region after October 7.
- Iran lost strategic deterrence as Hezbollah weakened, reducing Tehran's ability to deter Israeli or American action.
Region Views Israel As A New Strategic Threat
- Regional states now see Israel as a potential 'loose cannon' using forward defense across the Middle East.
- That perception drove Gulf, Turkish, and Egyptian alarm and reconsideration of ties with Israel.
