Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson, global investments strategist for the Hartford Funds, is expecting a positive year for 2025, with a broadening market and solid earnings growth driving it forward, but she expects the drive to a third consecutive year of double-digit gains to be more volatile. That volatility represents an opportunity, she said, because fantastic companies become cheap when the markets get frothy but their underlying fundamentals don't change. Jacobson is leaning towards domestic stocks, but she noted that investors do not want to forsake international stocks, because they represent a good value at a point where domestic markets are pricey. Economist Lester Jones discusses the latest Business Outlook Survey from the National Association for Business Economics, which showed that economists think sales and profits are holding steady in current conditions, despite rising costs and increasing uncertainty over economic policy. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, looks at a Bitcoin fund that uses options to eliminate downside risk as his ETF of the Week, and Geoff Garbacz, partner at Quantitative Partners, mixes technical analysis with a macro outlook in examining some popular stocks in the Money Life Market Call.

Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist for Janney Montgomery Scott, says that "the U.S. economy seems to be in pretty good shape," noting that there's a healthy amount of momentum — built on the strength of the labor market — that is creating solid underpinnings to will keep the economy and the stock market in a good place at least through 2025. Luschini thinks that earnings expectations — which he sees as a key for stocks continuing to post gains — are reasonable right now, though he does expect the market will be more volatile around news events, especially as it relates to earnings. Mark Hamrick, Washington bureau chief for Bankrate.com, looks at their latest "emergency savings report," which showed that just 41 percent of Americans would use their savings to pay for a major unexpected expense, like a $1,000 car repair or medical emergency treatment. In the Market Call, Ken Applegate, portfolio manager for the Wasatch International Growth and International Select funds, talks global small-cap investing.

Steven Dover, chief market strategist for Franklin Templeton — the head of the Franklin Templeton Investment Institute — called the DeepSeek news that roiled the market over the weekend and into Monday "a Sputnik moment," comparing it to when the Russians stepped up the space race and the rest of the world responded. "If it's true that something is coming out that is much cheaper and easier for companies to use, that is going to incease the efficiency and productivity of the economy and help the broad market significantly," Dover said. He noted that the weekend's news — and the start of the new Trump Administration — have not shaken his outlook for 2025, when he sees low double-digit gains, a broadening of the stocks that are working and heightened volatility, but no recession. Tom McClellan, editor of The McClellan Market Report, talks about how he believes that liquidity concerns are being overlooked by investors now, but they have him fully short the market. He notes that "event risk" tends to be heightened when liquidity is impaired, which could add to market volatility now; he pointed out that the DeepSeek news highlighted market overconfidence because investors were unprepared for weekend event risk. In the Market Call, Max Wasserman, co-founder and senior portfolio manager at Miramar Capital, talks about building a portfolio around dividend payers, with a mix of high- and low-growth companies. 

Brad McMillan, chief investment officer for Commonwealth Financial Network, says that  investors are nervous and have plenty of worries, but that there is a disconnect between those negative thoughts and what's actually going wrong because conditions continue to look good and be mostly unaffected by the worst things investors are scared of. That's a big reason why McMillan is optimistic now, noting as well that "The worse the rest of the world looks, the better we look because there's nowhere else to be;" while he expects heightened volatility, he also expects stocks to deliver low double-digit gains again this year. David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, puts the entire utility sector in the Danger Zone, noting that the vast majority of companies in the sector are unattractive or worse. Ted Rossman discusses a Bankrate.com study showing that nearly one in four rewards cardholders left free money on the table last year. Plus Jon Wolfenbarger, founder and chief executive officer at BullAndBearProfits.com, brings his stock and ETF strategies to the Market Call.

Barry Ritholtz, chairman and chief investment officer at Ritholtz Wealth Management, says that investors love a good story, but they tend to put too much stock in them and right now they are looking at a lot of things that either "can't" happen or "must" happen after two big-gain years for the market and they're making misguided decisions. He notes that the economy is likely to continue to avoid recession, especially as the 2020s will be looked back on as a period that pushed technology forward and created productivity  and other gains that helped a mature economy keep growing. Chris Vermeulen, chief market strategist for The Technical Traders, discusses why short-term concerns have him on the sidelines right now -- even with the market potentially set to gain another 5 to 8 percent before he expects a downturn -- and what he will need to see to feel comfortable moving back into the market. In The NAVigator segment, Miguel Laranjeiro, investment director for municipal debt at Abrdn, says the appetite for muni-bond assets has been growing at a point when "tax-exempt yields look really attractive."

Jennifer Martin, vice president of global equities for T. Rowe Price, says that artificial intelligence is creating "contestable markets," which means that "Every company has to keep spending." That creates an economic imperative -- regardless of economic and market conditions -- that should help the stock market power through adjustments to the new administration's policies and concerning economic conditions. Martin discusses T. Rowe's 2025 Outlook, and how it has changed in the two months since it was issued, but she noted that the U.S. economy is set for another year of growth, and that value plays and small-cap stocks could be strong for international markets. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, looks to a long-term dividend payers for both income and growth in his ETF of the Week, and Ken Mahoney, chief executive officer at Mahoney Asset Management, brings his "GPS method" for picking stocks and ETFs to the Market Call, looking to ride companies and sectors where the players are beating estimates and raising their earnings guidance.

Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments, says that the stock market will need earnings growth to generate returns in 2025, but that those gains should run roughly equal to the level of earnings growth, leaving the market set up for low double-digit gains in 2025. He says that technology continues to provide a tailwind to the market, though henotes that the artificial intelligence evolution makes for a moving target where investors might want to gravitate towards industries that are adjacent to AI, making money off of the companies and sectors that use AI to drive profit gains. Ladner — whose firm practices goals-based planning — noted that while the U.S. economy remains the world's strongest, it would be a mistake to ignore international markets now. Leigh Purvis, prescription drug policy principal at the AARP Public Policy Institute discusses her research into showing that prices on brand-name drugs have been rising much faster than the rate of general inflation for decades, creating challenges — particularly for Medicare Part D enrollees — that many people have addressed by not refilling prescriptions or by skipping doses to make prescriptions last longer. Plus Dan Crowley, partner at Nightview Capital — portfolio manager of the Nightview Fund — brings his concentrated growth approach to the Market Call.

Bryce Doty, senior portfolio manager at Sit Investment Associates says that "the elephant in the room" for the economy is the growing federal debt, now up to $36 trillion, which puts the Federal Reserve "in a pickle," because the debt will continue exploding if interest rates don't fall, but inflation could get out of control if the central bank cuts rates too fast. Doty sees an economy that will struggle to overcome that pressure, consumers that are reaching the limits on their spending and more, yet he doesn't foresee a recession this year just a slowdown that likely won't last long because he foresees the economy reaccelerating before year's end. David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs celebrates Monday's holiday — which delayed his weekly appearance on the show — by discussing an undervalued, dividend-paying steel company stock as he turns his weekly Danger Zone into "The Attractive Zone," and financial psychotherapist Vicky Reynal discusses her new book, “Money on Your Mind” The Unconscious Beliefs That Sabotage Your Financial Well-Being – and How to Break Free.”

Daniel McCormack, head of research for Macquarie Asset Management, says that heightened volatility in 2025 should make investors want to stay nimble and flexible, but he expects reasonable growth and a healthy environment. Sharing his outlook for 2025, McCormack says he expects China to begin "exporting inflation again," which could the U.S. back above a 3 percent inflation rate, which might slow down the pace of rate cuts, but it won't throw the economy into a recession. Larry Holzenthaler, portfolio manager for First Eagle Alternative Credit, gave his outlook for credit markets in 2025, noting that after avoiding default troubles when rates were rising, the picture is better now, particularly in private credit. Jennifer White discusses a J.D. Power study showing that consumers don’t think their bank will help them out in an emergency, and how banks might be more helpful than customers expect, and Chuck answers a listener question about sequence-of-return risk.

Bob Elliott, chief investment officer for the Unlimited Funds, says investors entered 2025 with "euphoric expectations," but at a time when the market was going through a tightening, which is a set-up for the market to be flat or down for a few months. He says investors should curb their enthusiasm if they expect the market to perform as well as it has in the last two years, though he makes it clear that there are still good times to be had, just at the levels of 2023 and '24. Author Paul Podolsky discusses “The Uncomfortable Truth About Money," which is his latest book, focused on "living with uncertainty and [thinking] for yourself." Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, looks to the banking sector for his ETF of the Week.