Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Whitney Tilson, editor at Stansberry Research, says that while there are reasons to be nervous, the market remains near record-high levels and is not showing signs that it is over-inflated and ready to burst. Tilson notes that fundamentals are strong and the U.S. has the best-performing economy in the world, so investors have correctly priced stocks at rich levels; while that makes it harder for Tilson — a value investor — to find great companies that the market has knocked down or mispriced, it doesn't make the market scary or mean that a big downturn is building. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, pursues a big yield in an unusual place — the high-flyers of the NASDAQ — with his ETF of the Week, and Cullen Roche, chief investment officer for the Discipline Funds, talks about exchange-traded funds for the long haul in the Market Call.

Tim Urbanowicz, chief investment strategist for the Innovator ETFs, says that the stock market can keep running for as long as investor sentiment remains strong, but he notes that those emotions have been at such high level that there's not much room for a setback — which could be caused by tariffs, inflation and more — without cratering the market. As a result, he thinks investors need to take advantage of current conditions — even if they are nervous — but diligent about changes in the market. Author Ryan Matt Reynolds discusses his current book, "Undoing Urgency: Reclaim Your Time for the Things that Matter Most," and Jerry Sneed, senior wealth advisor at Procyon Partners, makes his debut in the Market Call talking about stock-picking and building a portfolio amid a strong market that's facing storm clouds.

Zach Jonson, senior portfolio manager at Stack Financial Management, says current valuations "really only fall in line with 1929 and 1999, so we see substantial downside risk" to the Standard & Poor's 500, but investors can avoid "historic ber market losses" in the mega-cap stocks that have lead the market for the last two years by rotating toward the value and lagging plays. He recommends equal-weight index plays rather than traditional cap-weighted plays, and being patient with the stocks that were unloved, which will have to overcome the shifting momentum of mega caps as the market cycle changes. His sentiments about a broadening market were seconded by Patrick O’Hare, chief market analyst at Briefing.com, who says that what's coming will be more of a stock-picker's market where investors are paid for being thoughtful and discerning amid a market that's likely to be stuck in a tight range as leadership changes and amid geopolitical uncertainty. Also on the show, Chuck Bell of Consumer Reports discusses how the potential end of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau will impact consumers, and Chip Lupo discusses a WalletHub study showing that Americans collectively will spend a record $14.2 billion on Valentine’s Day gifts, with the average lovebird shelling out $186 this year.

Economist Howard Yaruss, a professor at New York University and the author of "Understandable Economics," talks about how tariffs work and why increasing the levies now could lead to stagflation — higher prices with a worse economy — depending on how consumers and the Federal Reserve react. Yaruss isn't predicting recession yet, but he does see the economy becoming more sluggish as businesses deal with uncertainty around tariffs. David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, has a surprising pick — a Magnificent Seven stock — for The Danger Zone, and Brian Frank, manager of the Frank Value Fund talks absolute-value investing in The Market Call. Plus, Chuck has a heartfelt message near the end of the show that long-time listeners -- and newcomers too -- deserve to hear.

Lauren Saidel-Baker, economist at ITR Economics, says the "green shoots have been forming" among leading economic indicators, showing that growth is ahead for the economy, along with a normalization as the last ripples of the Covid-19 economy are finally playing out. She expects the Federal Reserve to struggle or fail in its efforts to hit a 2 percent inflation target and thinks consumers should get used to higher prices, but even if tariffs add to upward pressure she thinks the economy can avoid a recession. Christian Munafo, chief investment officer at Liberty Street Advisors — manager of the Private Shares Fund — talks about late-stage venture opportunities in artificial intelligence and the hunt for the next unicorn in the overheated AI space. Martin Leclerc, chief investment officer at Barrack Yard Advisors talks stocks in the Market Call, and Chuck discusses his sure bet for the Super Bowl, namely that companies which recently went public that advertise on the broadcast are headed for trouble.

Thomas Winmill, manager of the Midas Fund, discusses how uncertainties over tariffs, trade wars and geo-politics have help boost gold prices by more than 40 percent in the last year — and mining-company stocks by even more — and yet the current level of concern is going to help precious metals go even higher from here. He explains why the higher prices are a particular boon for the miners, making them the market sector he thinks has the most potential moving forward. Dan Brown, director of consumer product management at KeyBank talks about the firm's recent research which showed that Americans have levels of financial stress which may not be fully warranted, contradicting other studies — including ones discussed recently on the show — by showing that 45 percent of respondents are confident they could manage a $2,000 unexpected expense. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, looks to the newest bond offering from the oldest mutual fund company — one of its first ventures into running exchange-traded funds — as his ETF of the Week. Plus, in the Market Call, Wasif Latif, president/chief investment officer at Sarmaya Partners — manager of the new Sarmaya Thematic ETF — talks about the concepts and ideas that he thinks will move the market next.

Charles Piller, author of “Doctored: Fraud, Arrogance and Tragedy in the Quest to Cure Alzheimers,” discusses how research into one of the world's most devastating health scourges has been held back by the egos and profit motives of some of the leading researchers, and what they have done to keep their research in the spotlight even as more science shows that it might be leading to the wrong conclusions on how to combat the problem. Lindsay Theodore of T. Rowe Price talks about new research — and a planning guide created from it, that looks at life and long-term care planning for the second half of retirement, noting that for many people the golden years are two different stages that require separate financial focus to plan for correctly. Plus Dan Kim, director of research at Saturna Capital — manager of the Sextant International fund — brings his long-term focus to finding disruptive stocks to the Market Call.

Craig Callahan, chief executive officer at ICON Advisers, says the stock market is trading near its fair value, but that it has enough earnings momentum to push out an average year of gains — something in the range of 9 to 11 percent — and that it could do better if profits come in above expectation levels. He does anticipate more volatility, but figures the underlying value of stocks — especially those with quality management — should overcome headline risks. Mish Schneider, chief strategist at MarketGauge.com, says that market hysteria about headlines — and particularly some of those being created over the weekends while the stock market is closed — is creating opportunities, especially for volatility traders. Plus, in the Market Call, Matt Stucky, chief portfolio manager of equities for Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, talks about being picky in selecting stocks that can thrive in current conditions.

Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management, says "the soft landing narrative right now is alive and well," but she is watching initial jobless claims and and high-yield bond spreads, both of which have been at levels showing continued economic strength and which aren't signalling any change in that trend. She does say that investors should temper expectations because the market sits at 22 times forward earnings, with the historic peak being 24 times; while that gives some room for more upside, it suggests that solid earnings and great balance sheets -- trading at reasonable prices -- will be essential for delivering positive results. David Trainer, president at New Constructs, puts Quantum Computing in "The Danger Zone,"   warning that a recent decline that cut the stock price in half didn't go nearly far enough given a lack of profits and a questionable business model. Craig Giventer, managing director of portfolio strategies for Focus Partners Wealth, talks about the importance of finding "good businesses at fair prices" -- rather than bad businesses at bargain levels -- in the Market Call.

The show — like the stock market and economy — moves in a lot of directions today, with Ron Sanchez, chief investment officer at Fiduciary Trust Company International, saying that there's a "high degree of clarity around the economy," — a level of sustainability and durability that he thinks will last at least through 2026 —  balanced out by a host of policy and regime changes ahead that could impact monetary and fiscal policies, regulation, trades and tariffs and more. He thinks the uncertainty being played over a strong economic backdrop should ensure that the market avoids significant trouble. Jeffrey Bierman, founder of TheQuantGuy.com and chief market technician at TheoTrade, says the stock market is setting up for a "garden-variety, nothing-to-panic, maybe 10 percent corrective move in the market," but that once that is done stocks will consolidate and the market will start to climb higher again. Neither guest thinks big gains are likely in 2025, but both think that high single-digit gains are likely. Also on the show, John Cole Scott of Closed-End Fund Advisors answers audience questions on closed-end fund investing in The NAVigator segment and Chip Lupo discusses a WalletHub survey which showed that some 40 percent of Americans think their bank is taking advantage of them.