Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Jim Welsh, author of "Macro Tides" and the "Weekly Technical Review," says he thinks the stock market "is reaching an inflection point," saying that the next time the Standard & Poor's 500 makes new records but without support from the highs in the advance-decline line, he will take it as a sign that the stock market is about to roll over. Welsh says that several momentum indicators suggest a short-term decline could be between 3 and 7%, at which point he expects a bounce-back that lasts only until the economic concerns take hold. Welsh says a rise in layoffs would show that the market has gone from mild slowing to something more active, If job growth slows markedly "and we get to a point where the economy starts to meaningfully slow down, that is going to be the trigger for a much deeper and more prolonged decline." That drop, he says, could fulfill a 17-year cycle which would drop the S&P 500 by thousands of points. Rob Thummel, senior portfolio manager at Tortoise Capital, says that this is "the best time I have ever seen" in a three-decade career to be investing in energy. Thummel, who manages Tortoise Energy Infrastructure, notes that the U.S. has grown into the largest energy producer and energy exporter in the world; coupled with emerging energy needs caused by the expansion of artificial intelligence, it will drive demand growth "for decades to come." Chuck Carlson, chief executive officer at Horizon Investment Services — which publishes the "Best Dividend and Income Investments" newsletter — brings the proprietary Quadrix system and its multi-factor evaluation process to the Money Life Market Call. Plus Allison Hadley discusses a PartnerCentric.com survey which showed that more than 40% of Americans say they're actively reducing social media use in 2025, with nearly 20 percent having already quit at least one app this year as they try to take more control of their personal lives.

The Powerball jackpot that went unclaimed on Wednesday night will top $1.7 billion for its next drawing this weekend, and will mark the 13th time in less than a decade that the big prize has been north of $1 billion. Chuck talks about why jackpots have grown this large, how you might use the lottery as a personal finance tool — even if, like him, you never buy a ticket and why the odds are never in your favor. In the "ETF of the Week," Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, looks to a technology fund that mixes the big names and the tech-adjacent" plays to create an opportunity for investors seeking a growth bost for their portfolio. Natalie Iannello discusses a survey done for FrontDoor which looked at how homeowners were keeping cool under the heat of more extreme water bills this summer. Plus Seth Cogswell, manager of the Running Oak Efficient Growth ETF, brings his disciplined approach to stocks — which focuses at least as much on reasons to sell as it does on opportunities to buy — to the Market Call

Rob Thummel, senior portfolio manager at Tortoise Capital — manager of the firm's energy infrastructure funds as well as its new AI Infrastructure ETF — says that in a three-decade career, he has never seen a better time to be looking at the energy sector, thanks to being the world's largest energy producer with opportunities to remain the global leader, but also due to the power needs created by artificial intelligence. He says "Electricity is the new oil," driving the economy forward the way oil companies used to. Thummel notes in his Market Call interview that he has now seen some Bitcoin mining companies morph into data centers, largely because the megatech companies are paying to get access to the power supply that the crypto mining companies have developed. Lester Jones, chief economist for the National Beer Wholesalers Association, discusses the latest "Beer Purchasers Index," a forward-looking measure of economic activity that he says has reached the lowest point in its 10-year-plus history, indicative of a "beer recession," with less orders, declining sales and other economic indicators showing an alarming down cycle for the industry that could be a bad sign for the broader economy. In the Big Interview, Rick Pitcairn, chief global strategist at Pitcairn — a firm that works with ultra high net worth families managing money over lifetimes — discusses the importance of not allowing today's bumps and headlines become something bigger in a portfolio. It eliminates "the execution risk of timing," and allows the market to turn a steady return in the high single digits" to become "a super wealth accumulator." As a result, he's fully diversified, and suggesting investors lean into international stocks and bonds, hard assets and more now.

Chuck warned listeners a few weeks ago that he had been hit by a computer virus, and that they should not open a spam e-mail that was being sent from one of his accounts. But that was the beginning of his online misadventures, because he hadn't just gotten a virus, he was hacked. Thieves have stolen nearly $4,000 from an online bank account, and they did it right under his nose. He explains how it happened, how he caught it, why he thinks he will eventually get restitution from the bank and more. Stephen Kates discusses a survey on financial regrets from Bankrate.com, which showed that the most common regret for Americans now is not saving for retirement early enough, followed by racking up too much credit card debt. Nick Pisano talks about research from Clever Real Estate showing that 60 percent of Americans believe that having a nearby short-term rental unit from a site like AirBNB lower's a home's appeal and value. The problems run from rental guests not caring about the neighborhood they're staying in to the constant in-and-out reducing the quality of life for the locals. In the Market Call, John Cole Scott, president of CEF Advisors, discusses his "trifecta analysis" of closed-end funds and how frequently he will add or drop funds to take advantage of market conditions but also tax circumstances.

Dana Samuelson, president of American Gold Exchange — a former president of the Professional Numismatists Guild — sees "a meaningful rally in gold" coming once the Federal Reserve makes multiple rate cuts, but adds that turmoil over Fed leadership and concerns that government data could be compromised or less transparent would build "a better bed from gold to rise from." Samuelson said he expects gold to be in the $3,900 to $4,200 per ounce range within a year, and that his forecast might be conservative if there is any sort of global debt problem or currency collapse. Kimberly Flynn, president at XA Investments, discusses the recent executive order signed by President Trump that allows a dramatic expansion of alternative assets to be part of 401(k) and other retirement plans. While headlines have made it seem like crypto bros will blow up their retirement plans with alternatives, Flynn discusses how firms running life-cycle and target-date funds may decide to make allocations to alternative asset classes, exposing everyday investors to alternatives, but in safer ways than most industry watchers are imagining. Jay Hatfield, chief executive officer for Infrastructure Capital Advisors, brings his macro-first approach to the Market Call, noting that rate cuts should be "tremendously positive for the market" and are keeping him bullish even as the market enters September, a seasonally weak time for stocks.

Jeff Clark, head of defined contribution research at Vanguard, says the firm's latest "How America Saves" report for 2025 shows that consumers are doing a better job of setting money aside for their future, helped by rules that have made it easier for employers to help. The average total savings rate — including both worker contributions plus employer contributions — is now up to 12 percent, a potential target for all investors to try to achieve. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, turns to the first active bond ETF — a 15-year-old iconic fund from PIMCO — as an ultra-safe alternative to cash with his "ETF of the Week." In the Market Call, Jed Ellerbroek, portfolio manager for Argent Capital and the Argent Large Cap ETF — which launched just as the market was bottoming out after the tariff announcements in April — discusses looking for enduring business models. Plus, Chuck talks about the Federal Reserve and why its independence is so important to the long-term functioning of the economy and the ability to keep inflation controlled.

Chuck became a grandfather for the first time on Sunday and has been planning how he will help his grandson financially for years, but today he chats with financial adviser and author Chris Carosa, author of "From Cradle to Retirement," about "Child IRAs," and how he plans to create an income for the baby and then invest that money into a Roth IRA to provide decades of tax-free growth. Carosa also discusses the new "Trump accounts," which give newborns $1,000 and allow parents to contribute more, and discusses how he would prioritize saving for a child's future. Sudipto Banerjee, global retirement strategist at T. Rowe Price, discusses the firm's research into retirement savers which showed that younger savers tend to follow a homogeneous path as they start out, but older investors — while generally getting more conservative as they age — take personalized, diverse paths as they age and get into their retirement years. In the Market Call, Aniket Ullal, head of ETF research at CFRA Research, discusses exchange-traded funds and why the firm's methodology has him high on developed international funds right now.

Simeon Hyman, global investment strategist at ProShares, says that with inflation running above the Federal Reserve's targets — forcing both the Fed funds 10-year Treasury rates higher — there's room for the Fed to cut rates but not much room for the market to respond to it. As a result, he's saying the market has room to broaden out, with small caps likely to be helped out by upcoming Fed cuts, but not much upside if large-cap stocks have to keep being the engine for growth. Hyman says that recession is unlikely for several quarters, as there is room for modest earnings growth to continue. Russell Rhoads, associate clinical professor of financial management at Indiana University — cohost of the Academic Market Insights videos on YouTube — says he expects the economy to be sluggish while rate cuts work their way into the next cycle. He says that he'd be looking to underperforming stocks and areas of the market to take the lead as the economy changes and, like Hyman, believes there is potential for small-caps to step forward, helped out by the changing rate environment. In the Market Call, Jeff Auxier, manager of the Auxier Focus Fund, discusses his long-term value approach and how he's looking for stocks that have been beaten up by bad news that have a chance to regain their good name and recapture their market value.

Crit Thomas, global market strategist at Touchstone Investments says the market can move higher — though with a path that is more bumpy — and the economy can avoid recession, but he also notes that the market is particularly hard to read because current conditions are dramatically different than many past situations. He cites a lot of reasons — from index concentration to fallout from the pandemic — for why looking back at market data seldom yields accurate forecasting right now. Thomas does expect a market slowdown, as earnings have been impressive but growth has been muted, which should make for slower markets ahead. Sarah Wolfe, senior economist and strategist for thematic and macro investing at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management — the chairperson of the Economic Policy Survey for the National Association for Business Economics — discusses the NABE survey released today, which showed a record number of economists view current economic policy as too stimulative. The economists viewed tariffs as the biggest long-term obstacle to growth rather than a stimulator for economic activity, and they also see recession coming into focus in the long-term, noting that current conditions have backed off any downturn to where economists now don't expect to see one until late in 2026 or in 2027. Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs, puts Five9 back in the Danger Zone because the company has fallen back into the territory of a "zombie stock," effectively due to run out of money in the next two years. Guske makes a case that the stock — currently valued at roughly $28 a share — is worth maybe six bucks, though he makes it clear he could make a case for it to go to zero. Plus, Dan Skubiz, chief investment officer and senior portfolio manager at F/m Investments, talks small-cap stocks in the Money Life Market Call.

Alan Gayle, president of Via Nova Investment Management, is concerned about economic sluggishness and "how the world is going to look and who is going to win" after tariff and rate changes fully play out. Coupled with a stock market where he sees equities as overpriced, that leaves Gayle wanting to be fully diversified, including a full allocation to domestic bonds but also international stocks, where he finds compelling values that he thinks can continue to run. Gayle says that he expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates soon, but "anything the Fed does today takes at least nine months to work," so he thinks it will take that long for the market to get some clarity; as a result, he wants to stay invested and buy any dips while waiting for opportunities to become more apparent. Xander Gray, chief executive at XG Capital Strategies, says that current price levels are high compared to moving averages which suggests that there might be a consolidation or pullback in the offing. Gray — who was last on the show late in 2024, when he called for a market downturn and a recession — says spending and other factors have helped to hold off the recession, though the numbers are showing signs of a weakening that makes the market's current rally hard to trust. Mitchel Penn, managing director of equity research for Oppenheimer & Co., says that business-development companies have moved past concerns about a spike in credit losses and are now "fairly valued" by the market, meaning that their biggest potential gains for the remainder of the year will come from simply capturing dividend payouts. That's not bad, especially because he expects payouts to remain in the high single-digit range, even after likely interest rate cuts that will carry into 2026.