Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

David Goodsell, executive director of the Natixis Center for Investor Insight, discusses the firm's 2025 Individual Investor Survey, which shows that investors were so satisfied with the 20-plus percent gains of 2023 and '24 that they are expecting less this year, but they have only dropped their expectations from roughly 17 percent down to about 12 percent, and Goodsell notes that financial advisers sugest those numbers aren't realistic or responsible. Goodsell says he believes the market is heading towards "a new age of diminished expectations." Sociologist and author Juliet Schor discusses her latest book, "Four Days a Week: The Life-Changing Solution for Reducing Employee Stress, Improving Well-Being, and Working Smarter, leaning into whether the business community and the government could ever adopt a massive workplace change on a broad scale. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, leans into current events to examine an advocacy fund with his ETF of the Week, and Chuck answers a listener's question about the "Buy, borrow and die" strategy a financial adviser is pitching to his friend's elderly, wealthy mother.

Daniel Morris, chief market strategist at BNP Paribas Asset Management, says he sees continued expansion in the United States and a slowing in Europe and other international markets, which contributes to why he is mostly neutral on allocations, as tariff plays and international stimulus efforts and more creates positive potential around the globe. Morris says a neutral stance makes sense because there is so much uncertainty right now that it is hard to have strong convictions about what the market can do next. Indrani De, global head of investment research for FTSE Russell discusses the ongoing Russell Reconstitution — the exercise of changing benchmark indexes to reflect corporate evolutions and avoid surprises — and what the current effort (which becomes final on Friday) reveals about the stock market and the breadth of growth now. Plus Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst/Washington bureau chief at BankRate.com, discusses current levels of consumer sentiment which show that nearly two-thirds of Americans are expecting that tariffs will have a negative impact on their personal finances.

Stacie Mintz, head of quantitative equity for PGIM Quantitative Solutions, says that equity valuations in emerging markets are at their most attractive level relative to U.S. stocks in decades. That's not a surprise, as emerging markets have underperformed domestic markets for the last 13 years, but Mintz says the time has come for diversification to pay off. While the headline risks of tariffs, trade wars and geopolitics loom large,she said current values are compelling enough that investors should be comfortable waiting for a payoff when the news cycle calms down. Jasmine Escalera discusses a survey done by LiveCareer which showed that "ghost job postings" — listings for phantom jobs that don't exist — have become a staple of the hiring process for nearly half of all American human-resources  pros. Plus Richard Howe, editor of the Stock Spin-off Investing newsletter, returns to the Market Call, talking about what can make spin-offs attractive, compares the roll-out of subsidiaries to the initial public offering process and discusses howlong spin-off effects linger.

Ed Shill, managing partner at the Wealth Enhancement Group, says he sees the market either continuing to climb the proverbial wall of worry or getting complacent, and he fears that it's the latter after the sharp rebound from April's decline. "Right now the market is overbought," Shill says in the Market Call, where he recommends "putting airbags on," using stops to lock in profits and being prepared to step back from markets until conditions improve. In The Big Interview, Sam Millette, senior investment strategist at Commonwealth Financial Network, says that the Federal Reserve faces a challenge getting the market to understand its motivation for any rate cuts it makes later this year. He expects a rate cut later this year, likely in September, but he says the reaction of the market — whether it gives the classic bullish response or if it reacts as it did in 2024 when cuts had less impact than expected, particularly on bond markets — will depend on what the market thinks is the Fed's motivation for a cut. Plus, Anthony Holds of Holds Wealth Advisors discusses the latest results from Northwestern Mutual's 2025 Planning & Progress Study, in which nearly 70% of Americans reported that financial uncertainty has made them feel depressed and anxious.

Brian Levitt, global market strategist at Invesco, says that he came into the year expecting that the growth and inflation backdrop would support reasonable corporate earnings that could push the market higher. He still believes that -- despite expecting a slowdown, struggles with increased market volatility and higher inflation as a result of tariff impacts -- and said that modest earnings growth will result in single-digit equity gains for the rest of the year. Levitt made the case for expanded international investments, but said he would lean into quality as a factor, noting that high-grade companies will give the most shelter if the storm clouds deliver more trouble than Levitt and Invesco are currently forecasting. Certified financial therapist Nate Astle discusses a Beyond Finance study which showed the deep connections between financial strain and emotional well-being, suggesting that money isn't just a numbers game but a mental-health issue. Plus John Cole Scott, president of Closed-End Fund Advisors, answers listener questions about closed-end funds and whether premiums and returns of capital are as bad for investors as they are cracked up to be, whether interval funds are worth the illiquidity risk and more.

Julia Hermann, global market strategist at New York Life Investments, says she is concerned about market volatility for the remainder of the year, especially as tariff impacts work their way further into the economy and as we see some resolution on their status. While tariffs pose the risk of creating an exogenous shock — precisely what Hermann worried about triggering a recession when she last visited the show in February — she says that recession risk now is actually lower than it was when trade policies were made public in early April. She also discusses the firm's 2025 MegaTrends report, which looks at global debt investing, talking about how deficit spending and other concerns will impact credit markets over the next decade.  Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com, checks in ahead of today's Fed meeting and announcement on what he expects from central bankers for the remainder of the year and whether cuts — whenever they start — will have the classic result investors are clamoring for. Plus Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes a play on the market's recent momentum with his pick for the "ETF of the Week."

It's a tale of two forecasts on today's edition of Money Life, as two experts come to very different conclusions of how 2025 will play out. In The Big Interview, Paul Christopher, head of global investment strategy for the Wells Fargo Investment Institute says he expects the market to drop "5 to 10 percent easily" as tariffs, accompanying inflation and a slowing economy take hold during the third quarter and stick around for at least six months. Christopher notes that surprises could push the market down even further, back to or past April lows, but he noted that he'd be buying there, because he believes the United States was oversold early this year and will represent a particularly good value once it digests the expected downturn. In the Talking Technicals interview, however, Matt Fox, president of Ithaca Wealth Management, sets a 7000 target for the Standard & Poor's 500, up about 20 percent from current levels in the next 12 months. Fox says the sell-off in April did a lot of the "technical damage" necessary to set up a rally, and has us now at a point where "the path of least resistance is  higher." Fox's forecast, however, also is based on solid fundamentals, which he believes can overcome the current headline risks that are dominating the landscape now. Plus Drake Shadwell discusses the latest research from Clever Real Estate showing the current trends on how long houses are staying on the market and what that means for the strength or weakness of the economy.

Brent Schutte, chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co., says that "Asset classes don't die, they just go to sleep for awhile," and they wake up when there are changes to the macroeconomic backdrop. He says that domestic strategies about trade, tariffs and global defense represent that background change, which is why he's recommending diversification, and considering commodities, international stocks and more. Schutte says he's expecting rate cuts late in the year and thinks the economy can avoid recession, but not a slowdown.  David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, finishes the firm's three-week look at troubling dividend trends, this week focusing on "dividend traps," companies where the current price is so high that a big decline would mean that the dividend isn't worth sticking around for. Previously, New Constructs featured "fake dividend stocks" and "false dividend stocks" in The Danger Zone. Plus economist Brian Lewandowski of the University of Colorado Boulder looks at the June 2025 Outlook Survey from the National Association for Business Economics, out today, which showed that economists expect sluggish economic growth and persistent, higher inflation into 2026; on average,  the economists felt those conditions were not likely to create a recession.

Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial says he expects the market has enough momentum to break through to new record highs, and soon. Led by tech stocks, Turnquist expects the move off the April lows to continue, though he acknowledges that the macro backdrop "is extremely messy." If the market can overcome trade uncertainties, Turnquist says that when new highs are achieved three months apart, it is typically a good sign that a volatile market can continue overcome bad news and continue upward trends. The NAVigator segment features an interviewed taped in New York at the Active Investment Company Alliance BDC Forum with Tonnie Wybensinger, head of government relations for the Small Business Investors Association, an industry advocacy group who discusses current legislation that would give BDC investors a tax break and how legislation on esoteric subjects like business-development companies gets passed. Natalie Iannello, discusses a Howdy.com survey which showed that the average American now believes they need $105,000 a year to live comfortably, which is a problem when you consider that other research shows the average American salary at about $66,000. Plus, it's Chuck birthday, and he shares a birthday wish for his financial situation, and yours.

Mitchel Penn, managing director at Oppenheimer & Co. — interviewed at the Active Investment Company Alliance BDC Forum in New York on Wednesday — says that credit losses for business development companies during the first quarter of 2025 were more than double the level they have been at for the last few years. He says some of that increase could be attributed to the market's reaction to government policies, but that it also could be that interest rates have stayed higher for so long now that they are starting to create credit-quality issues. He said BDCs can still deliver returns in the range of 9% moving forward, though he warned that an increasing number of business-development companies may struggle to earn their dividends, making it important for investors to be avoid simply chasing a high yield. Also from the BDC Forum, Bob Marcotte, president at Gladstone Capital Corp., discussed how government policies are encouraging business investment and capital expenditures which should create outstanding conditions for private credit, and therefore BDCs, to shine. Plus, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, checks in with a short-duration Treasury fund that uses options to goose its yield as his ETF of the Week, and Chuck discusses the growing threat to investors and the economy from breakdowns and cuts impacting the way the country's economic statistics are tracked and maintained.