Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Danielle DiMartino Booth, chief strategist at QI Research, says that she remains concerned about the economy in the short run because Congress isn't being "brisk and efficient" in delivering on the promise of de-regulation and lower taxes. Since those potential policy benefits haven't shown up — but the uncertainty of tariff policies has — she is expecting a bumpy economic road ahead. She does say that inflation may be having less impact than consumers say it is having, but she notes that consumer fears are real and are contributing to her feelings that the economy will struggle to regain momentum. Speaking of tariffs, Chuck answers a listener's question on how they are supposed to work and why he has been saying the dollar must be weaker for them to achieve President Trump's stated goal. Plus, Ted Rossman discusses a Bankrate.com survey which showed that Americans with checking accounts have maintained the same account for an average of 19 years, which may mean they are missing out on opportunities to get more from their most basic bank accounts.

Scott Brown of Brown Technical Insights says that the market traditionally is weak during the first quarter of a new presidential cycle, but he notes that the third week of March is also when that tends to change and the market reaches the bottom of that cycle. He says we're still in a secular bull market, with April and May historically providing some runway. As a result, Brown expects a bounce and says "It's not the time to be turning negative now," though he notes that if the seasonal rally fails to materialize, then conditions could be weaker than expected. Also on the show, David Ellison, portfolio manager and financial services specialist for the Hennessy Funds, says that interest-rate cuts may, again, not have their traditional impact on stock and bond markets, and veteran financial journalist Allan Sloan "has fun with numbers," talking about the market's recent decline in numbers — rather than points on a stock index — and noting that it amounted to roughly $6.5 trillion until Monday's market rebound.  

Dhruv Nagrath, director of fixed-income strategy at BlackRock, says that it's "easy to make a healthy return in your fixed income without taking too much risk," so while there are opportunities out the risk scale all the way out to high-yield and junk bonds, he notes that investors can stay safe and come away happy with their gains. Nagrath discusses what he expects to happen to bond yields when the Federal reserve starts cutting rates, how bonds are likely to perform relative to stocks in that environment, and where he is finding the right mix of risk and reward. Veteran financial journalist Herb Greenberg discusses "Stock Promotions Gone Wild," a recent piece he wrote after seeing company presidents hyping their shares in ways that, historically, executives have avoided, and why such promotions may be a red flag. Plus, David Trainer of New Constructs puts Wayfair back in "The Danger Zone," noting that the stock -- which he previously labeled a "zombie stock" -- remains in among the walking dead, likely on the way to losing nearly all of its value.

The show wraps up interviews taped at FutureProof Citywide in Miami today, with Joe Terranova, chief market strategist at Virtus Investment Partners noting that the Trump Administration is not disturbed with the recent price action on the stock market, because they know that the economy must cool off to get lower interest rates and energy prices. Moreover, he notes that a prolonged tariff battle will impact earnings growth, which will be the key determinant of what the market can achieve this year. Tony Rodriguez, head of fixed income strategy at Nuveen, expects the Federal Reserve to make two interest-rate cuts this year and talks about the asset classes that will benefit the most from them. Barry Martin — the manager of Shelton Equity Income — discusses where investors can find strong income now, using options as an overlay to goose returns. The show also features interviews with Laura Lutton, global head of manager research at Morningstar, and Brad Smithy, head of wealth management at Elevation Point.

Caleb Silver, editor-in-chief at Investopedia, says that uncertainty is kryptonite to investors and he worries that the longer current worries about tariffs, inflation, recession and more drag out, the more people could stop believing in long-term investing and stop their "relentless bid" where they put money into retirement plans with every paycheck. The market will keep going — perhaps slower, and possibly with a bear market and a possible recession — so long as the money keeps flowing, and he sees that stemming the tide of any declines. That is one of four interviews from FutureProof Citywide in Miami Beach this week; Chuck also chats about the markets with Don Calcagni, chief investment officer at Mercer Advisors, and Tim Holland, chief investment officer at Orion. Plus, after Todd Rosenbluth, the head of researchat VettaFi makes a Vanguard quality-based fund his ETF of the Week, Chuck finds longtime friend and former Money Life regular Tom Lydon at the conference and they catch up on other developments in the ETF world.

Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management, says she is minimizing geopolitical inputs right now because it's impossible to make investment decisions around uncertainty. She says it's particularly important right now to focus on fundamentals and what's real — "We're investing in companies not countries" — and she is not buying the long-term hype on Europe because she says the recent rally doesn't have a strong foundation to stand on. That's one of four interviews from FutureProof Citywide in Miami Beach for today's show. Chuck also talks emerging markets and global income investing with Dan Shaykevich, head of Multi Sector Strategy, co-head of Emerging Markets and Sovereign Debt with Vanguard, discusses the evolution  of new financial products with Alec Davis, head of enterprise reporting at Pitchbook, and covers the stock market and being a patient investor in impatient times with Eddy Elfenbein, editor of the Crossing Wall Street blog and portfolio strategist for the AdvisorShares Focused Equity ETF.

Money Life goes to the beach for the rest of this week, with Chuck conducting interviews at FutureProof Citywide, a festival for financial advisers held on Miami Beach. His first conversation at the event was with veteran CNBC personality Ron Insana, now the head of wealth at QuantumStreet AI, who says investors are right to be concerned about current levels of valuation and also geo-political policy uncertainty, but who doesn't see market issues extending to a level of a crash or crisis. The show also features Stephen Tuckwood, chief investment officer at Modern Wealth Management, leading financial adviser Michael Kitces, the head of planning strategy at Focus Wealth Partners, and Jeff Garden, chief investment officer at Lido Advisors, who makes a notable case against investing internationally — particularly in Europe — as a way to diversify a portfolio now.

Jonathan Treussard, founder of Treussard Capital Management, says that the current market decline is not a real surprise, but the whipsaw of emotions — moving from a can't-miss certainty that things were going up to hand-wringing today — is taking investors by storm, making them want to take actions even when the best strategy is to ride this out. "Success grows in silence, and the market is really attuned to noise," Treussard says. "Your job is to sit there with peace in your heart and focus on the silence." Kate Byrne, head of Vanguard Cash Plus discusses a recent Vanguard Consumer Savings Survey which showed that six in 10 Americans did not completely understand how interest rates can impact the money they save, which is why nearly half of them who are currently saving are settling for accounts earning less than 3 percent interest. Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs, puts Trupanion back in the Danger Zone, noting that the pet-insurance company is barking louder as a dog despite recent pullbacks after an earnings miss.

Doug Ramsey, chief investment officer at The Leuthold Group, says that stock market swings have had increasing impact on economic growth and the rate of inflation in recent years — "Price is a fundamental," he says — and that means the current downturn in the stock market could deliver a recession. At the same time, if the market moves from current correction-levels to bear-market levels, he expects inflation to then ease up and to help drive a potential recovery. Charles Rotblut, editor at AAII Journal, discusses the latest investor sentiment survey from the American Association of Individual Investors, which just hit its third straight week with bearish sentiment above 57 percent and bullish sentiment below 20 percent, a three-week stretch in both numbers that has never been seen since the survey started in 1987. While sentiment levels didn't hit these levels during events like the Dot-com Crash and the Great Financial Crisis, Rotblut noted that when sentiment reaches bearish extremes, the market typically has rebounded in six months, which bodes well for a recovery before year's end. In the NAVigator segment, Roxanna Islam, head of sector and industry research at VettaFi, discusses the Invesco Closed-End Fund Income Composite ETF — which she considers the "Standard & Poor's 500 for closed-end funds" — as it celebrates its 15th anniversary and crosses $800 million in assets.

Shelly Antoniewicz, chief economist at the Investment Company Institute, says that consumers currently expect that they will wind up paying about half of the costs added to goods by tariffs — meaning they will pay 10 percent more when an item is facing a 20 percent tariff — and she says that a cutback in consumer spending would dramatically change the economic picture, since it makes up about two-thirds of GDP. Along with declining consumer sentiment, Antoniewicz says that investors are reacting to current market performance and heading toward money-market and bond funds, waiting before they are willing to buy into the dips. Speaking of concerned and conservative investors, Todd Rosenbluth — head of research at VettaFi — picks an ultra-short and ultra-safe bond fund as his "ETF of the Week," and Chuck recounts three conversations this week with friends who are dealing with the market differently as they struggle to find some peace of mind amid current concerns. Plus, Chip Lupo discusses a WalletHub survey which showed that Americans can agree on something, namely that tipping is wildly out of control.