Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Sandler, says that for all of the tumult and headlines, he still believes the market shows signs that it will still reach 6600 on the Standard & Poor's 500, the level he was expecting at the start of the year. That's up by more than 15 percent from current levels. Johnson acknowledges that the voyage will remain more "noisy" than he expected, but he says conditions "are more normal than many people realize." As a result, he's almost fully invested, counting on making money by climbing the proverbial Wall of Worry. Danielle Poli, portfolio manager at Oaktree Capital Management, says the credit market is delivering returns that are close to the historic levels of equities, but says the current set-up is reminiscent of times in the early 2000s when credit "smoked" equities. With high-yield bonds earning around 8 percent and private credit showing significant demand, Poli says that while credit can be "a great place to hide out," investors can expect even more from it now. Poli says that credit can be more than just "a great place to hide out;" in talking with corporate executives, Poli says she now expects a slower economic environment, with the potential for higher inflation from tariffs, creating the kind of environment where "you're going to want to be in credit over equities." Plus Charles Rotblut, editor of AAII Journal, says the group's latest survey of investor sentiment is showing numbers "that you'd expect to see if there's a bad bull market," with uncertainty being priced into the market and into investor expectations. He also discusses an AAII Journal article highlighting the changing ways that investors are using cash in their portfolios.

Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, returns to Money Life today as the firm introduces the RSM US Recession Monitor — a comprehensive scorecard relying on more than 20 indicators to track the health of the economy — which is showing a 55 percent chance of recession, a danger level that Brusuelas says will go higher if current tariff and trade policies continue as announced. While he is optimistic about potential rollbacks in those policies, Brusuelas says the current conditions would be considered recessionary regardless of the party in power in Washington, but are exacerbated more by policy than they have been during times of recession triggers like an oil price shock.Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, brings a Pimco actively managed multi-sector bond fund back as the ETF of the Week, noting that the fund is a strong diversifier and can goose yields now, at a time when investors are looking for safe havens but might want bond managers to manage into the rapidly changing market conditions. Plus, more from the archives with investment legend Jack Bogle — who founded Vanguard 50 years ago today and who appeared on the show a decade ago talking about the firm's 40th anniversary; today's excerpts, culled from three different appearances on the show, include comments from 2016 on the first Trump Administration that stand up particularly well against the test of time.

Money Life celebrates it's 13th anniversary by looking at the past, the present and the eternal, digging into the archives for excerpts from a 2018 conversation with Jack Bogle that remains completely relevant — and perhaps moreso — despite the passage of time. Bogle — the founder of The Vanguard Group — who popularized index investing and was routinely called "Saint Jack" in the investing world, talks about how he invested and built his personal portfolio, saying that he favored the simple and domestic over the complicated and worldwide, but also talks about the evolution of ETFs, changes to the way people perceive indexing and more. With the show now in its 13th year, Chuck also gives a little 'bar mitzvah speech,' discussing the lessons he says are most important and prevalent from 13 years, over 3,250 shows and more than 10,000 interviews. Plus Nancy Prial, co-chief executive office and senior portfolio manager at Essex Investment Management talks small-cap investing in the Market Call.

Steve Rick, chief economist at TruStage, says that he has lowered his forecast for economic growth to 0.5 percent, while raising his forecast for inflation to 3.5 percent; that combination means stagflation, and it's starting to happen now and could turn into recession if the growth slowdown is worse than expected. Rick notes that "No one wins trade wars" and notes that if the current situation plays out into one, that trade problems triggering huge downturns would seem to be a classic 100-year event. While he says the damage can be averted if economic policy changes are softened or mitigated, Rick says he worries that the impacts of current events could last as long or longer than the economic impacts of Covid. Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices, discusses the unprecedented action in the Dow Jones Industrial Average on April 17, when United Healthcare dropped 22 percent and, by itself, caused a big drop in the benchmark. He analyzes what that means for the Dow as a benchmark, but also talks index construction — and how investors should consider benchmarks — in light of the rapid growth of the Mag 7 stocks relative to the rest of the market. Plus Chuck answers a listener's question about how to sell some gold coins they received as an inheritance.

Everett Millman, precious metals specialist at Gainesville Coins, says that while gold took a big stumble last week, he doesn't believe the strong rally to start the year is over. Further, with gold trading near record highs but oil trading in the range of $70 a barrel, he believes investors will find greater opportunity in gold-mining stocks than in physical gold itself. Coupled with demand behind heightened heightened because gold is historically an asset for uncertain times, and Millman said that while he thinks there may be more volatility moving forward, gold will continue to trend higher. David Trainer, founder/president at New Constructs. puts PPE maker Lakeland Industries in the Danger Zone, noting that these times are much different from when the stock was flying high during the pandemic. Ryan Butler,  senior editor at Covers.com, talks about the early impact that tariffs have had on the gaming industry and what he's watching for as trade policies play out, plus Chuck looks at the first 100 days of Trump Administration 2.0 and discusses how the numbers have played out on everything from inflation and consumer prices to the personal savings rate, home and auto sales, mortgage and car loans and more.

Victoria Fernandez, chief market strategist at Crossmark Global Investments, says investors looking at current market turmoil and the potential for stagflation and an economic recession should remember that "Doing nothing is something," making an active decision to continue with current allocations, which she says is appropriate for anyone who felt balanced when they entered 2025. Fernandez expects current tariff policies to drive inflation above the 4 percent level before it cools, creating a stagflationary environment, bringing some hard times that she thinks won't last long once the economy and the market have some long-term clarity and stability on policy changes. because the economy was so strong entering the year. Bryce Doty, senior portfolio manager at Sit Investment Associates, discusses the trading opportunities in closed-end funds created by the market's volatility, but he also notes that in spite of the tumult, his prediction for fixed-income closed-end fund returns this year "is still double digits, it's just going to be different." Plus Burns McKinney, senior portfolio manager at NFJ Investment Group brings his "modern value" investing approach to the Market Call.

Francisco Bido, senior portfolio manager at F/m Acceleration, brings his quant-active approach to the Market Call, but notes that mixing the numbers — the quantitative approach — with the art of active management leads him to want a well-diversified portfolio filled with well-known names that stay true to his core investment believes, the kind of thing he would be happy to ride with until there is more certainty and confidence in the market. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, puts a different spin on that, noting that amid the current uncertainty investors may want to make a long-term allocation to ultra-safe funds, which is why he makes a floating rate Treasury fund his ETF of the Week. Plus Chuck talks about the wild day that gold had on Wednesday and what lessons investors can take from it, and Frederick Blue of Wells Fargo Wealth and Investment Management discusses "Guidance for Professional Athletes: Turning Years into Decades," a new white paper the firm produced that discusses how people can turn short-term windfalls into something more permanent and lasting.

Dominic Ceci, chief investment officer at Johnson Financial Group, says that he believes the potential recession that the United States economy could be facing is likely to be "a run-of-the-mill, early '90s type of recession" that stays shallow and lasts a few quarters, but he acknowledges that the signs are murky and that the longer uncertainty around trade and other policies last, the deeper and longer a likely recession becomes. Ceci says that investors should remember that the market is up way more than it is down, which means investors need to avoid panic and keep their eyes on the long-term gains rather than making changes based on incomplete information now. In The Book Interview, author Shannah Game, discusses “Unraveling Your Relationship With Money: Fix Your Money Trauma So You Can Live an Abundant Life,” which explores how the actions and attitudes people pick up over their lives — but particularly when they're young — influence a lifetime of decisions and attitudes around money. Plus, Michael Campagna, senior investment analyst at Moerus Capital Management — manager of the Moerus Worldwide Value fund — brings his deep-value approach to the Market Call.

Andrew Slimmon, senior portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, says that with so much investor optimism wiped away by the rough start to 2025, the opportunity for growth now looks better than it did at the start of the year. "Six months from now, I would say there's a good chance the market will be higher," Slimmon says in summing up a conversation that compares current conditions to Covid times, that discusses why looking for defensive names now is bad advice and much more. Ironically, his interview airs directly before Simon Lack of SL Advisors — publishers of the American Energy Independence Index — talks about defensive midstream energy plays in the Market Call. Plus, Jerry Avorn discusses his new book, "Rethinking Medications: Truth, Power, and the Drugs You Take," which is out today.

Mike Green, chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management, says that we're living through "a period of genuine uncertainty, and a period in which forecasts that would have been made even three or four months ago no longer seem to have any real validity." He says that the current set up for a trade/tariff war is setting the economy up for a repeat of real troubles, and made comparisons as varied as the Great Depression, the Covid downturn, the Great Financial Crisis and others, and while he is optimistic that those dire scenarios can still be avoided, he also says that investors can't rule them out. Rahul Sen Sharma, president and co-chief executive officer at Indxx discusses how global markets — and indexes representing various regions and industries around the world — are performing amid the current market uncertainty. Plus, Raymond Bridges of the Bridges Capital Tactical ETF brings his "aggressively cautious" approach — which melds macroeconomic big-picture views with technical analysis and volatility factors — to the Market Call.