Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Bill Smead, manager of the Smead Value Fund, (SMVLX), says that the market has "all the pre-conditions for the [Standard and Poor's 500 to do very poorly," noting that current conditions are the "antithesis of 1980," when everyone got excited about Ronald Reagan took office at a time when stocks were cheap and inflation and interest rates are high. This time, he says, people are getting excited "at the end of a huge run .... a financial euphoria episode." He says in the Market Call that these conditions will lead to strong market performance over the next two decades, but to much tougher sledding over the next few years. One area that investors might turn to for relief would be gold, which has been on a big run in 2024 to get to record-high levels, and Everett Millman, precious metals specialist at Gainesville Coins, says he thinks that precious metals rally and gains are sustainable for at least the next 18 months — even if it goes through a short-term correction caused by profit-taking — because the conditions that have created the rally are likely to remain in place. Plus, Allison Hadley discusses a study fone for Luke Zion Jewelry which showed that Americans spend nearly $1,500 a year on "fashion."

John Cole Scott, president of Closed-End Fund Advisors and the chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance, looks at how discounts have narrowed in closed-end funds amid the strong market this year, but he digs into his firm's data to find three closed-end funds and one business development company trading at attractive discounts to make them appropriate picks for year-end portfolio moves. Julia Toothacre discusses a ResumeTemplates.com, study showing that six-in 10 employees will be shopping Black Friday sales while at work today, Chuck discusses the ultimate financial gift to give your relatives this (and every year) -- so that you can get your shopping done before the shopping season even starts in earnest -- and Eric Marshall, president of Hodges Capital Management, talks small-cap investing in the Market Call.

Talley Leger, chief market strategist at The Wealth Consulting Group, likes small-cap stocks, financials and consumer discretionary and industrial companies, saying he expects a lot of the recent winners to slow as part of a shift in leadership that could lead to a market that slows or creates attractive buying opportunities with intermediate-term losses. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, returns to the Standard & Poor's 500 for the second week in a row, but this time picks an all-time classic that has been having record inflows as his "ETF of the Week." And in the Market Call, Christopher Zook, president of CAZ Investments, talks about looking for long-term themes, but buying them at reasonable prices, and discusses how that has him handling a hot space like artificial intelligence.

Carley Garner, senior commodity strategist at DeCarley Trading, sees the stock market completing its current rally with a small gain that would move the Standard and Poor's 500 to about 6,200. But once the holiday euphoria passes, she sees the market being hit, taking the S&P 500 down to roughly 4800. She also worries about how gold and oil prices will play out as the second Trump administration follows through on some of its campaign promises. Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst and Washington bureau chief at BankRate.com, discusses the site's latest survey on Americans' Social Security needs, noting that more than half of the nation's not-yet-retired workers expect to rely on the program to pay for "necessary expenses," but nearly three-quarters of Americans are concerned they won't get their promised benefits once they hit retirement age. Plus, Chuck answers a listener's questions about hiring a financial adviser to help manage an inheritance.

The National Association for Business Economics released its November Outlook Survey today, and nearly all of the economists surveyed expect moderating growth and slowing inflation but, most importantly, no recession until at least 2026. Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide and the outlook survey chairperson for NABE, called the results "Goldilock-ish," noting that forecasting firmer growth and slower inflation than they did in September, the economists are effectively expecting a near-perfect landing for the economy, with downside expectations decreased. David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, revisits Beyond Meat, noting that a number of different Danger Zone picks have recently had big rebounds, but that the plant-based meat maker hasn't gotten that kind of life support from the market, which is why he expects it to complete its destiny as a "zombie stock" in 2025. Plus, Nael Fakhry, portfolio manager for the Osterweis Growth and Income fund, discusses "quality growth companies" in the Market Call.

After waiting over three years for "one of the worst recessions ever anticipated that never happened," Edward Yardeni, president and chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research, says that the economy is now moving forward without much recession worry, buoyed by consumer spending — especially from Baby Boomers — and rate cuts from the Federal Reserve that he considered mostly unnecessary. Yardeni sees the economy going through another "Roaring 20s" period, and while the one a century ago ended in the Great Depression, he does think that outcome is not inevitable provided the government can keep debt and deficit levels under control while riding out the benefits of the "Digital Revolution" that includes all of the excitement around artificial intelligence and technology. Kendall Dilley, portfolio manager at Vineyard Global Advisors says the market's technicals are showing all green lights for a continuing bull market, and investors should lean in and treat downturns as buying opportunities. Dilley makes a case for the Standard & Poor's 500 to reach 7,500, getting as high as 6,400 by year's end, with only "normal pullbacks" on the road to that higher level. Plus, we revisit a recent conversation with Axel Merk, president and chief investment officer at Merk Investments — manager of the ASA Gold and Precious Metals — on why gold has worked better as a geo-political hedge than as a buffer against inflation.

George Bory, chief investment strategist for fixed income at Allspring Global Investments, says that 'the soft landing was earlier this year,' and now the Federal Reserve is trying to "prevent a recession in an otherwise fairly healthy but unevenly distributed economy." Bory notes that central bankers typically cut interest rates to stimulate a slowing economy, but that's not the case currently in the United States, where he says the Fed is trying to bring rates down more in line with inflation, and that has changed the shape of the yield curve, dropping short-term rates but making it that long-term rates — including mortgage rates — aren't likely to fall by much even with additional rate cuts. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi picks a market-index fund with an options overlay — an ETF that's delivering yields of roughly 9 percent — as his "ETF of the Week." Thomas Cole, co-founder of Distillate Capital — a firm that makes "stability" a prime factor in its investment methodology — brings his numbers-oriented value-investing approach to the Money Life Market Call.

Nick Nefouse, global head of retirement solutions in the multi-asset strategies and solutions team at BlackRock, says that in a world where investors are increasingly nervous about sequence-of-return risk — the potential for the market to crater just as they start withdrawing from their retirement nestegg, forever damaging their finances — and longevity risk, investors may be looking for ways to lock in income, so that they can avoid those concerns. He discusses how investors should be reconsidering risk as they enter "the retirement window," which he notes starts in your 50s and runs for some people into their 70s. Jon Stubbs, analyst at Clever Real Estate, talks about what has been happening to the average real estate commission in light of a settlement that was supposed to change the way buyer's agents were compensated and reduce costs for seller in the process. Plus, Chuck discusses a little error he made in a financial transaction this weekend that could have turned into a huge problem, and how and why it is crucial that consumers using payment apps understand that they may be on the hook for blunders, no matter how innocent and unintentional.

Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial expects the stock market's return levels to "return to normal," which means slower growth but not anything that ends the bull market as it rolls through its third year. Turnquist does think the short-term action has put the bulls on trial, forcing them to prove that the market can go higher without some sort of interim downturn. Turnquist thinks the market could take a setback to its Halloween lows, but that action would be an opportunity to buy the dip. Charlie Bobrinskoy, vice chairman and portfolio manager at Ariel Investments, brings his classic, Warren Buffett-style of value investing to the Market Call, and Chuck talks about how the car dealer who sold his step-daughter the car that exacerbated her ear problems resolved the issue over this weekend, and the valuable — and pricey — lessons he and his step-daughter took away from the process.

Fritz Folts, chief investment strategist at 3EDGE Asset Management, sees "unprecedented degrees of overvaluation" in the market, and he says the market is "dramatically overvalued" and at risk of a severe correction, but he notes that economic and fundamental models are pretty good, and investor behavior keeps driving momentum, so the positives continue to drive the market more than the overvaluation does. That means the market can rise from here, but Folts thinks investors should use "targeted diversification" over many asset classes to make it work. David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, also thinks the market is severely overvalued, and he singles out Shake Shack — which is up nearly 140 percent over the last year — as an example of something that is severely overpriced and due for a fall. Plus, Chuck discusses troubles with a recent used-car purchase by his step-daughter, and the financial lessons the transaction is actively teaching him now.