Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Tom Samuelson, chief investment officer at Vineyard Global Advisors, says the market's long-running bull market is "on thin ice right now," from a technical standpoint, having fallen below its 200-day moving average, leaving the market "at a really interesting juncture," and making him defensive, building more cash, loading up on utilities and safe sectors and waiting to see how it plays out. Samuelson says that if the market breaks down -- with a decline accelerated by reactions to government tariff policies -- it could drop another 15 percent or more, putting the market squarely into correction territory off of its February highs. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, is more interested in the recent rally in international stocks than he is in the possible impact of tariffs on the markets there, and picks a T. Rowe Price international fund as the ETF of the Week. Susan Fahy discusses the latest Credit Gauge from VantageScore, which shows that the resumption of student loan payments has negatively impacted credit scores and will drop them further, as other indicators suggest consumer finances are slowly declining. Plus Mike Bailey, director of research at FBB Capital Partners, brings his "beat and replace" approach for stocks to the Market Call, and Chuck gives his initial take on what Wednesday's tariff news means for consumers.

Jim Masturzo, chief investment officer for multi-asset strategies at Research Affiliates, says that despite the uncertainty surrounding tariff policies and geo-politics, international markets remain attractive and with a better valuation than domestic markets. But those global markets may also get a boost from the Trump Administration's plans to weaken the dollar — a dollar that Masturzo says his firm believes is currently 25 percent overvalued — so he emphasized that investors should not "fight the Treasury," and should instead follow its actions to more international exposure in their portfolios. Lester Jones, chief economist for the National Beer Wholesalers Association, discusses the latest Beer Purchasers Index, which shows that forward-looking demand for beer is contracting, a sign that consumers may be looking to pull back on spending. Plus, Taylor Krystkowiak, vice president and investment strategist for the Themes ETFs discusses some popular investment themes — and the stocks that best represent them — in the Money Life Market Call.

Lawrence McMillan, president of McMillan Analysis, says the market has been in an oversold rally and is currently correcting as it comes out of that. He sees deteriorating breadth but still thinks this could be what he called "a healthy correction." McMillan says if the Standard & Poor's 500 can't hold the 5400 level, he would expect it to drop to 5000, a move big enough to put the stock market into bear market territory, a decline of 20 percent from market peaks in February. Wade Pfau, professor of retirement income at The American College of Financial Services, returns to the show to discuss updates to "Retirement Planning Guidebook: Navigating the Important Decisions for Retirement Success,” and discusses the trend of investors trading some potential returns for more certainty, using annuities and reverse mortgages to secure income. Plus Wayne Thorp, head of research and analysis products for the American Association of Individual Investors — who created AAII's growth investing strategy — talks growth investing amid declining growth in the Money Life Market Call.

Harvard University economist Jason Furman — the former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers — says that the tricky thing in forecasting now is high levels of uncertainty, particularly in terms of how much business and consumers pull back based on current conditions; if there's a recession, he says it will be spending cutbacks that trigger it. Furman notes that the average tariff rate is now back to levels from the 1940s, and while he says he'd be shocked if it triggers a Great Depression, it could trigger a recession where the loss of economic growth and higher inflation results in the effective loss of about $2,000 per family. Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs puts CoreWeave — Wall Street's latest big IPO — into the Danger Zone right out of the box, and Barry Ritholtz of Ritholtz Wealth Management returns to the show to discuss his new book, "How NOT to Invest: The Ideas, Numbers, and Behaviors That Destroy Wealth — And How to Avoid Them."   

Julius de Kempenaer, senior technical analyst at StockCharts says that the stock market at current levels is unattractive, because "the upside potential is now way more limited than the downside risk," and he expects that risk to be realized in a decline that could drop the market by another 5 percent or more. De Kempenaer says this dip won't feel much like a buying opportunity, because the market will need several months or quarters to finish a rotation and find a new base to build on. He notes that investors have been gravitating toward bonds, another sign that they are concerned about the market's ability to keep generating gains. Jordan Lopez, manager of the Payden High Income fund, says high-yield bonds have been improving in quality, despite the higher interest rates of the last few years, and he expects the trend to continue, to the point where the market for junk bonds now looks more like what investment-grade bonds used to be. Plus, Eric Purington, portfolio manager for the Aberdeen Global Income Infrastructure fund, discusses the potential of middle-market infrastructure plays, and MarketWatch columnist Brett Arends discusses his latest piece, which suggests that the Trump Administration needs a weaker dollar to make its plans work, and that a recession may be a required part of that calculus behind tariffs and inflation-fighting strategies.

Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at BankRate.com, discusses how the site's latest survey shows that Americans are tapping into emergency savings increasingly to pay ordinary expenses. He talks about the dangerous spiral that a growing number of consumers are on, as they begin to exhaust emergency funds and have to rely increasingly on credit cards, currently carrying record-high interest rates. Rob Nestor, president of Turing Technologies, discusses the evolution of "high-conviction investing," and how focusing on the investment ideas that money managers most believe in can deliver results that beat indexes. In the Market Call, Greg Halter, director of research at Carnegie Investment Counsel, makes his debut on the show, talking stocks.

Danielle DiMartino Booth, chief strategist at QI Research, says that she remains concerned about the economy in the short run because Congress isn't being "brisk and efficient" in delivering on the promise of de-regulation and lower taxes. Since those potential policy benefits haven't shown up — but the uncertainty of tariff policies has — she is expecting a bumpy economic road ahead. She does say that inflation may be having less impact than consumers say it is having, but she notes that consumer fears are real and are contributing to her feelings that the economy will struggle to regain momentum. Speaking of tariffs, Chuck answers a listener's question on how they are supposed to work and why he has been saying the dollar must be weaker for them to achieve President Trump's stated goal. Plus, Ted Rossman discusses a Bankrate.com survey which showed that Americans with checking accounts have maintained the same account for an average of 19 years, which may mean they are missing out on opportunities to get more from their most basic bank accounts.

Scott Brown of Brown Technical Insights says that the market traditionally is weak during the first quarter of a new presidential cycle, but he notes that the third week of March is also when that tends to change and the market reaches the bottom of that cycle. He says we're still in a secular bull market, with April and May historically providing some runway. As a result, Brown expects a bounce and says "It's not the time to be turning negative now," though he notes that if the seasonal rally fails to materialize, then conditions could be weaker than expected. Also on the show, David Ellison, portfolio manager and financial services specialist for the Hennessy Funds, says that interest-rate cuts may, again, not have their traditional impact on stock and bond markets, and veteran financial journalist Allan Sloan "has fun with numbers," talking about the market's recent decline in numbers — rather than points on a stock index — and noting that it amounted to roughly $6.5 trillion until Monday's market rebound.  

Dhruv Nagrath, director of fixed-income strategy at BlackRock, says that it's "easy to make a healthy return in your fixed income without taking too much risk," so while there are opportunities out the risk scale all the way out to high-yield and junk bonds, he notes that investors can stay safe and come away happy with their gains. Nagrath discusses what he expects to happen to bond yields when the Federal reserve starts cutting rates, how bonds are likely to perform relative to stocks in that environment, and where he is finding the right mix of risk and reward. Veteran financial journalist Herb Greenberg discusses "Stock Promotions Gone Wild," a recent piece he wrote after seeing company presidents hyping their shares in ways that, historically, executives have avoided, and why such promotions may be a red flag. Plus, David Trainer of New Constructs puts Wayfair back in "The Danger Zone," noting that the stock -- which he previously labeled a "zombie stock" -- remains in among the walking dead, likely on the way to losing nearly all of its value.

The show wraps up interviews taped at FutureProof Citywide in Miami today, with Joe Terranova, chief market strategist at Virtus Investment Partners noting that the Trump Administration is not disturbed with the recent price action on the stock market, because they know that the economy must cool off to get lower interest rates and energy prices. Moreover, he notes that a prolonged tariff battle will impact earnings growth, which will be the key determinant of what the market can achieve this year. Tony Rodriguez, head of fixed income strategy at Nuveen, expects the Federal Reserve to make two interest-rate cuts this year and talks about the asset classes that will benefit the most from them. Barry Martin — the manager of Shelton Equity Income — discusses where investors can find strong income now, using options as an overlay to goose returns. The show also features interviews with Laura Lutton, global head of manager research at Morningstar, and Brad Smithy, head of wealth management at Elevation Point.