Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Ed Clissold, chief U.S. strategist at Ned Davis Research says that he expects the stock market to back off of its current "pretty elevated" levels as it prices in a discount for uncertainty. "Whether or not you think in the long run that changes by the Administration are good or bad, while we go through them means that probably valuations need to be lower," Clissold says, noting that the discount will be accompanied by choppier market action, heightened volatility and more pullbacks and corrections. Further, Clissold notes that the situation could last until the economy digests a workforce shift as public workers move into jobs in the private sector and consumers curb spending during the adjustment period. D.R. Barton Jr., director of market research for the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, says the current cycle may be changing, and he is watching whether the Standard & Poor's 500 can stay above its 200-day moving average, which it has been close to breaking the last few days. Barton says the pullback could reach the point of being a correction -- a decline of 10 percent or more -- if the trend line is broken, but he thinks the market needs to take a breather and re-gather itself before it can resume making real progress. Kimberly Flynn, president of XA Investments, says healthy borrowers and minimal defaults make the loan space attractive, with concerns over tariffs and Federal Reserve policies leading to more volatility but also new opportunities.

Meb Faber, chief executive and chief investment officer at Cambria Investments, says that the cheap global stock markets are up 15 percent already this year, where the United States has been flat — "if you heard about geo-politics, you'd assume the opposite" — and he says that investors should be moving away from domestic issues to buy more global companies. Faber promises — and delivers — "a warning, an idea, a curiosity and something you've never heard of before" in today's Big Interview, and also gives his take on how to approach current events, asset allocation, cryptocurrencies and more. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, also goes global on this show, looking to China internet stocks — one of those booming global markets — vettafi.com with his ETF of the Week. Plus Stash Graham, managing director at Graham Capital Wealth Management, talks stock investing in the Market Call.  

Adam Hetts, global head of multi-asset at Janus Henderson Investors, says the stock market entered the year in "goldilocks mode," at all-time highs and with positive conditions, but the late-cycle economy is facing policy drag and "a lot of those risks have teeth," which is bringing recession back into the conversation. Hetts adds that with a market near record levels, it makes the current rally feel fragile, as if it's easier to move down than keep climbing, and he says there may be a correction as the market re-assesses its current standing, which could create new buying opportunities. Allison Hadley discusses a Howdy.com survey showing that many Americans would leave their job if it weren’t for the need for their current health insurance coverage. Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question about fairness in setting up gift and legacy accounts for grandchildren, and Jay Woods, chief global strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, talks stocks in the Market Call.

Eric Stein, head of investments and chief investment officer for fixed income at Voya Investment Management, says that the "sequencing of policies" is impacting the market now, noting that if the Trump Administration had done supply-side reforms and de-regulation first, it would boost the market, but instead the first moves have been tariffs, which has made the market outlook tougher. Still, he's expecting a modestly positive year, buoyed in part by the market's "self-correcting mechanism" that will react to tariff policy and impact how and how long those policies stay in place. Veteran technical analyst Martin Pring of Pring Research and the Intermarket Review says that the primary trend he's seeing in the market remains bullish, and the signs that we are nearing a market top are balanced by indicators showing there's more room to run. David Callaway, founder of Callaway Climate Insights, discusses how energy stocks could be set up for a fall; they have boomed as an AI-adjacent play because artificial intelligence requires high levels of power, but got hammered when the market was disappointed in the results at companies like Nvidia. Plus Andrew Graham of Jackson Square Capital talks stock investing in the Market Call.

Greg Daco, chief economist at EY, says the national financial numbers are strong, but the high level of uncertainty has the economy nearing a tipping point and making recession more likely. He sees the potential for consumer issues and a recession, and says there is a real -- but modest -- chance of stagflation putting the Federal Reserve in a real policy bind. Sarah Wolfe, senior economist and strategist for thematic and macro investing at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, talks about what other economists are thinking, as she highlights the March Economic Policy Survey, released today by the National Association for Business Economics.  David Trainer of New Constructs revisits Carvana, a stock which has defied gravity for over a year; he says it can't shake its status as a zombie stock headed for a massive decline. John Barr, portfolio manager for the Needham Funds, discusses his aggressive growth strategy in the Market Call.  

Finance professor Meir Statman, author of "A Wealth of Well-Being: A Holistic Approach to Behavioral Finance," says the headlines and geopolitical risks that have investors and consumers scrambling for a plan of action are not that different from past times, and that taking a deep breath and calming down will be a lot better than altering financial plans or stocking up and filling "that refrigerator you keep in the garage." Statman acknowledges that inflation is scary — particularly because it removes a measure of certainty from pricing — but says that acting scared has never served investors and consumers well. In The NAVigator, John Cole Scott, chief investment officer at Closed-End Fund Advisors, is back and answering more listener questions, this time on business-development companies, highlighting how they are different from closed-end funds but should be included with closed-end funds for portfolio-construction purposes. In the Market Call, Daniel Dusina, director of investments at Blue Chip Partners talks about how he finds "underappreciated quality companies."

Veteran personal finance journalist John Waggoner stops by to answer the questions that experts are getting at the grocery store, the doctor's office or anywhere someone can inquire about whether current events — and fears over the potential future of tariffs, Social Security, Medicare and more — need to be addressed by financial moves now. Waggoner notes that people who crave some certainty and comfort can make moves — like considering annuities to bolster retirement income — but he suggested keeping changes to a minimum and avoiding knee-jerk reactions. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, looks at bitcoin mining — and compares the investment allocation possibilities of the crypto world versus gold and gold miners — with his pick for "ETF of the Week." Will Rhind, chief executive officer at GraniteShares talks about disruptive stocks — his firm runs the Nasdaq Select Disruptors ETF — and business-development companies in the Market Call. 

Crit Thomas, global market strategist at Touchstone Investments, says that he entered the year cautious given political uncertainty and the impact of tariffs and other new policies, and that the market has moved from high levels of optimism more towards his level of concern. He's taking a wait-and-see approach to international investing now, and he's expecting higher volatility with less progress while the market sorts it out. Where the market still expects double-digit earnings growth — a key driver if returns are to achieve that level — Thomas sees more muted growth and a possible correction as forecasts are missed, leading to a year in which the market's best outcome would be high single-digit returns. Allison Hadley discusses a BadCredit.Org survey which showed that Americans say that inflation has made the cost of friendship significantly higher; more than one third of Americans say they are isolating due to cost of living. In the Market Call, Bryan Armour, director of passive strategies research at Morningstar, talks about ETFs and where active and passive strategies offer potential advantages.

Veteran technical analyst Adam Grimes of MarketLife says that the market "just doesn't look right or feel right" to keep rolling along. It's not the kind of market that can support a big move upward, and is more likely to spend the year range-bound, in a protracted "chop and flop." That doesn't mean Grimes is down on the market, because he says this could be "a healthy psychological reset;" as that reset happens, Grimes said he would cut back on active and aggressive moves and stay patient looking for declines that will represent buying opportunities. Susan Fahy, chief digital officer at VantageScore, discusses the firm's CreditGauge measure, which shows credit card balances and consumer delinquencies on the rise, although at modest levels; overall indebtedness declined, driven primarily by consumers paying down existing mortgage debt and not buying new homes. Plus,small-and mid-cap portfolio manager Lance Cannon of Hood River Capital Management returns to the Market Call, and Chuck answers a listener's question about building the conservative side of an asset allocation while worrying about sequence-of-return risk.

Bill Stone, chief investment officer at Glenview Trust, says that the stock market has priced in so much good news that it makes him want to be more cautious, looking into headline risks for potential value opportunities. Stone notes that the stock market has had previous periods with three strongly positive, consecutive years — and it could complete that process again this year — but it makes him nervous that the market could adjust and re-set. That's not pushing him out of stocks, but has muted his expectations. Charles Rotblut, editor at AAII Journal, discusses the organization's investor-sentiment survey, which shows that nervousness is on the rise, but so is bullish sentiment. Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs looks at large-cap value funds and finds an attractive pick this week — rather than looking for the standard Danger Zone trouble spot — noting that even in a category that is doing well, top potential performers stand out. Plus, author Ross White discusses his recent book, "The Tree That Bends: How a Flexible Mind Can Help You Thrive."