The Mike Hosking Breakfast

There's disappointment Canterbury communities weren't consulted on a proposal to shut down rural Police stations.  Police are looking to reduce personnel, disestablishing some rural roles in favour of larger 24/7 hubs based in Rolleston and Rangiora.  Federated Farmers North Canterbury president Bex Green told Mike Hosking the community's heard about it via the media.  She says their Police live in their area and know their people, and if you lose that in a rural community it has a huge impact.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Monday the 4th of August, could we have done anything to ensure we got 10% instead of a 15% tariff hit? The Prime Minister joins Mike in studio to talk humanity, tariffs and when we are getting the NCEA announcement. Andrew Kelleher and Jason Pine talk everything from a dismal Warriors team to a good Wallabies side to a good Liam Lawson race. Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Prime Minister is hoping to refocus secondary schools on literacy and numeracy - like the Government's done with primary schools.  A major announcement on the future of NCEA is expected in the coming moments.  It's understood public consultation will be launched on proposed changes -- in which teachers and parents can give feedback. Christopher Luxon told Mike Hosking that the country needs an internationally competitive education system.   He says students can get through the current system without proficiency in the basics.  LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Disappointment, at the lack of people putting their name forward for October's council elections. Several people have been elected unopposed around the country. They include three of Christchurch's 16 councillors, two of Auckland's 20 councillors, and five of Lower Hutt's 13 councillors. Lower Hutt's outgoing mayor and the Vice President of Local Government New Zealand Campbell Barry says it's a less-than-ideal situation. He says the environment may be putting many people off standing, but a high-profile mayoral race can help drive interest. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A housing spokesperson warns homelessness is the worst it's been in several years.  The Government is seeking urgent advice as communities report rises in rough sleeping across the nation.  Auckland outreach providers alone reported a 90 percent spike in homelessness.  Salvation Army Senior Policy Analyst Paul Barber says it could come from issues with both resourcing and delivery.  He suggests a solution could be re-investing the hundreds-of-millions of dollars taken out of emergency housing support.  LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There was little this country could do to dodge the latest  tariff - this from a former trade minister Donald Trump's raising tariffs on New Zealand goods to 15 percent, while keeping tariffs on Australian and British goods at 10-percent. Tim Groser has dealt with the US extensively -- as our trade minister during the Barack Obama administration, and ambassador to the US during the first Trump administration. He told Mike Hosking current trade minister Todd McClay couldn't have prevented this, even if he'd camped outside the White House. Groser says our tariff rate rose, because New Zealand exports more goods to the US, than we import from the US. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The direct line between Wellington and Washington will see material results on tackling crime in New Zealand. The FBI has set up a Wellington based office - meaning it now has an office in each of the capitals of the Five Eyes intelligence alliance. It will work on combating terrorism, organised crime, and foreign intelligence threats. Assistant Police Commissioner Mike Pannett told Mike Hosking the FBI has specialist capabilities and having a NZ presence is a testament to a longstanding partnership. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We are being urged, again, to "break up with property".  We are urged this way once every few years.  It's based, not unreasonably, on the idea that we could take our money and make it work differently, if not more productively, than it does stuck in a house.  The latest iteration comes from a bloke at Craigs Investment Partners, who suggests if you put $100 into a house, in 30 years it's worth $600. But if you had done it with shares, it would be worth $1,100.  Not just that, but the country would be better off. Those dollars would have been out and about investing in stuff, growing stuff, creating jobs, opening markets, and making the world a better place.  That may well be true.  Trouble is, that’s a long-term view and most of us don’t have long term views.  The view most of us have is: what's happened to New Zealand shares so far this year? Answer: they have gone backwards. In the year to date they are down 1.4%.  Mind you, housing is hardly booming.  And if you want a glass half full, shares in New Zealand in the last five years are up almost 10%. Houses are most certainly not up 10% in the past 5 years.  It may change with the time. One child of ours started buying shares while at university. They are of the generation that believes they will never own a house.  That’s not true of course – they will, but they also have a portfolio.  But the perception could be the key. If housing is perceived to be unobtainable, what is obtainable? Maybe shares.  But credibility is also an issue. Shares can be blue chip or meme-type stock. You can invest, or you can punt.  Stock can be priced to perfection, or it can be solid as a rock. You can be in Fisher and Paykel Healthcare when Covid arrives, or Air New Zealand when Covid arrives.  It requires a lot, whereas a house is a roof and shelter and a thing you can show your mates and have a BBQ at.  Houses are easy and they hardly ever lose you money over time.  To get people to shift, especially when it comes to money, the pitch has to be compelling.  In an uncertain, crazy world, is a stock market compelling? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

At the end of each week, Mike Hosking takes you through the big-ticket items and lets you know what he makes of it all.    August: 6/10  Is it just me or is this year moving at pace? Where did seven months go?    The recovery: 4/10  Yes, by August the recovery was supposed to be here. The greens shoots were to have flourished, and stuff was supposed to be better.    The payWave charge ban: 6/10  Not perfect, but a practical move that should help.    Rob Penney: 7/10  Glad he is back, and why not? One bad year and one great year. You want another dose of great, don't you?    Shane Jones: 8/10  Move of the week. Had a couple of glasses of red, turned his phone off, and missed the alerts. Now that is a plan.    The Warriors: 7/10  A loss to the Titans and we lose James Fisher-Harris for a couple of weeks as well. If you are a doubter there is a bit of material for you to angst over. But I'm still a believer and this is our year.    LISTEN ABOVE FOR MIKE HOSKING'S FULL WEEK IN REVIEW See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

If a council gives a media outlet some numbers and the media outlet simply re-posts those numbers, is that reportage? Or propaganda?  The headline was "more cyclists get on their bikes", which is true. But at no point in my reading of the cycleways of the nation's major cities, was any definitive analysis done as to whether the cost of the infrastructure to get people on their bikes was worth it.  In Christchurch some popular routes clocked 2000 trips a day. Is that a lot?  Well, remember to halve those numbers because trips are each way. So it's 1000 trips going to and from something, and this is in a city of 400,000.  In Wellington there are four key corridors. They racked up 87,000 trips in a month.  So if you have 87,000, you actually have roughly 43,000 trips to and from. Divide it by four for the corridors and you have roughly 10,000. Divide that by 30 (for days of the month) and you have 333 people a day.  That's not a lot of people for cycleways that would have cost many millions of dollars.  In Christchurch they were claiming a 40% increase in usage, except that was from 2017. So in eight years it's about 5% a year. Not really a booming number.  Newtown in Wellington is one of their most popular routes. They do, they claim, between 8,000-12,000 trips a month.  So let's average that. It's 10,000 divided by two so we are down to 5,000. Divide that by 30 and we end up at 166 a day for one of the most popular routes.  So is cycling booming, or has the council PR department cobbled together their best numbers and passed it off in press release form to a gullible newsroom in the hope no one has a calculator?  Don’t get me wrong – there's nothing wrong with cycling. Cycling is fun and good for you, but when you add the cost of specialist infrastructure and do the math, it's got a very EV-type vibe about it, doesn’t it?  It's a lot of hype that is never quite matched by the reality.  Numbers and percentages are easily messed with to paint the sort of picture you want.  The favourite is the huge percentage increase, but you're not supposed to ask from what, to what. One to two is 100%, but it's still only two overall.  Beware the bandwagon and the machine, normally tax or ratepayer funded, that pushes this stuff.  And, sadly, the media who peddles it. No pun intended. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.