The Mike Hosking Breakfast

One of Bill Clinton's former top officials says a crucial Supreme Court decision on tariffs probably won't go Donald Trump's way.  The court's due to make a decision tomorrow on the legality of the US President's tariff regime.  Former US Under Secretary of Commerce Bill Reinsch says it's a major decision.  He told Mike Hosking the justices are being asked to determine the limits of presidential power.  Reinsch says Trump won't want to give the tariff money back, but the court could force him to do so.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Good news for our screen sector as it looks to become more competitive globally.  The Government's set to lower the minimum spend for feature films to qualify for a 20% cash rebate next year from $15 million to $4 million.  It'll also expand eligibility for an extra 5% rebate to include post-production, so films can be finished locally.  Screen Music and Sound Guild New Zealand Chair John Mckay told Mike Hosking incentives like this are the backbone of film financing.  He says we're not even competitive with Australia's rebate of 30%, so more flexible rules are welcome.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

I am hoping events this week, at least in some small way, teach us all a simple economic lesson or two.  Lesson 1: the red meat numbers.  We export a fortune in meat to the world. The critical part of it is it is the best of quality – quality will always beat quantity.   Why? Because the world will always contain large numbers of people unaffected by economic tides, and people with money like good stuff.  There are some things in life beyond the prevailing tide – Château Lafite, Bugatti cars, Rolex watches, and New Zealand meat and indeed wine. Not literally, but you get the point.  Onions will sell better in Europe because of our free trade agreement with the EU. We need fewer tariffs in that case because onions are onions, but meat is about quality. Like kiwifruit is. Like great Boudreaux wine is.   That’s not to say tariffs are good business, because they are not. And lord only knows how rich we could be if the world really was truly tariff free, but for the here and now our red meat numbers into America are unaffected because people will pay for quality.  Lesson 2: the job numbers. More people, young people, have stayed in or gone back to school because if they didn’t, they would be jobless. The 15 to 24 age group have an unemployment rate of over 15%. It’s shocking.  Why? Because a constrained market doesn’t provide work for people with limited or no skills.  Young people start out with the disadvantage of no experience, add no skills to that and you are toast.  This is not new, but it is new to the current lot, who clearly never got the previous lot’s memo that it’s hard enough as it is to get into the job market without turning up ill-prepared.  But here is what I know about life and economies: it doesn’t matter what the economic circumstances are, good people with good skills and good attitude and good determination are always, always, in demand and will do well.  And good stuff, well made, with a story, high in quality, will always, always, do well.  Quality, whether in person or product, is recession proof. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

One of New Zealand's most polarising leaders, the debate around former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern continues to rage two years after her resignation.  She led the country between 2017 and 2023, both the Christchurch Mosque shooting and the Covid-19 pandemic falling in her tenure.  Although Arden’s popularity was immense at the time, the tides have shifted within New Zealand, many questioning the actions she took and the impact they had.   "Jacinda: The Untold Stories’ is an unauthorised biography written by journalist David Cohen, drawing on more than 100 interviews and extensive research into Ardern’s time as Prime Minister.   “The ancient Greeks said, ‘count no man lest he be dead’. Jacinda Ardern isn’t dead of course, but her political career in New Zealand, not internally, is over,” Cohen told Mike Hosking.  “So we can start to assess what went wrong and what went right.”  He entered into this project with the intention of creating a balanced account, starting not as a fan of Ardern's nor as an adversary.   “I think one of the great tragedies of recent years is that we live in, in an era of the politics of emotion,” Cohen said.   “You either love someone or you hate them, and Jacinda played into that with her politics of kindness to some degree.”  He describes himself as an “old fashioned journalist”, with 25 years of experience in the field, and balance is a key tenet.  “One of our guiding ideas, injunctions, was to tell the other side, so it’s actually not a matter of whether I like her or I don’t.”  “I could say yes to both questions and no to both questions – journalistically, it was important to do this.”   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Thursday 6th of November, Economic Growth Minister Nicola Willis discusses the rising unemployment rate.  ACT Leader David Seymour gives his thoughts on the University of Auckland’s refusal to provide refunds for their now-scrapped compulsory Māori courses.   Brilliant pollster Henry Olsen talks us through the various elections, New York City in particular, in the US yesterday.  And author and journalist David Cohen discusses his unofficial biography 'Jacinda: The Untold Stories'.  Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.  LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Australian mining company Santana is a crucial step closer to opening its controversial proposed gold mine near Cromwell.  Officials have granted a 30-year mining permit for the Bendigo-Ophir Gold Project.  It requires the company to return either 10% of profits or 2% of gold sales to the Crown – whichever is higher.  Chief Executive Damian Spring told Mike Hosking they've now lodged a fast-track application for environmental and developments consents.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Those who are in work are taking more sick leave.  New research by Southern Cross Health Insurance and Business NZ has found an average staff member took almost seven days of sick leave last year, up 1.4 from two years earlier.  It's costing the country about $4 billion a year.  Business NZ Chief Executive Katherine Rich told Mike Hosking the rise in leave entitlements has had an impact, but many employees are also doing what they’ve been told, staying home when sick so they don’t pass it onto their coworkers.  She says post Covid, people think more about their wellness and are less likely to solider on like the Codral ad.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The pressure is on Zohran Mamdani following his landslide victory in New York City's mayoral election.  The 34-year-old democratic socialist has become the city's youngest mayor and first South Asian and Muslim mayor.  US pollster Henry Olsen says Mamdani may not be the answer to issues facing the Democratic Party.  He told Mike Hosking everything depends on how Mamdani acts when he takes office.  He says if Mamdani pushes an ideological agenda, that could be a problem for the Democrats as a whole.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Auckland University's completely ruled out refunds for its now-scrapped compulsory Treaty and Māori culture courses.  The university's making the courses optional from next year but won't refund students who were required to complete it in the first semester of this year.  The courses cost almost six thousand dollars for international students, and one thousand for domestic students.  Act Leader David Seymour told Mike Hosking his party's continuing to call on the university to give the money back.  He says they could refund students through a credit for future courses, rather than as a cash refund.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Economic Growth Minister's confident the economy will turn a corner soon.  Unemployment's reached 5.3% in the September quarter – the highest it's been since 2016.  160 thousand Kiwis have been out of work and looking for a job, the most since 1994.  Nicola Willis told Mike Hosking unemployment may rise further this quarter, but there are positives, like the increase in hours worked and a move from part time to full time work.  She says these unemployment figures do bounce around a bit, so she certainly won't say unemployment is at its peak.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.