The Mike Hosking Breakfast

The UK is set to spend more on defence.  Prime Minister Keir Starmer's unveiled plans to lift the defence spend, signalling it could reach 3% of GDP at the next Parliament.  He vowed to make Britain "a battle-ready, armour-clad nation”, and Defence Secretary John Healey says they’re in a “new era of threat”, which demands a higher spend.   UK Correspondent Rod Liddle told Mike Hosking that although many understand the need for increased defence, it’s not understood where the money is going to come from.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

If the headline is right, and I hope it isn't, the Government are seeking advice on what to do about Run it Straight.  If the Government is seeking this advice, they have been sucked in.  Unless of course they are saying they are seeking advice so everyone shuts up for a bit, because the whole thing has got hopelessly out of control.  We need to break the ongoing grip too many New Zealanders have with Government, or the ongoing spell that too many are under, that Governments run our lives and it is only Government that can do stuff.  Ardie Savea, God bless him, got it spot on last week. He spoke for all of us in trying to balance a sensible observation about an activity, while balancing the reason for the angst for the tragedy that led to the heightened upset around it.  What happened was a tragedy. But accepting that, we seem unable to separate out tragedy from Government, or accident from rules, or mishap from common sense.  We fail to recognise the most obvious lack of connection – Run it Straight the competition, the organised sport, was not involved in a death.  The death happened at a 21st party. As the Prime Minister pointed out, no law is stopping a 21st.  We want desperately to stop stupidity. We would like to find a way to prevent young men, mainly, doing dumb stuff young men do.  But as Ardie quite rightly put it, the athletic side of the activity is part of contact sport. We have all in our own way, whether it be bullrush, or league, or union, or MMA, all done something like it.  Savea and his brother did what many, many, many, young men do in backyards: try to run each other over. Why is his brother called 'Bus', do you reckon?  The heat I took on this last week when I said similar things was interesting. There seem a group who feel if they spray, or get aggro with a person like me, that makes them feel better.  Maybe psychologically they can absolve themselves for feeling helpless.  Tragedy generally leaves us helpless.  But looking to a government is pointless and a government looking for advice is even more pointless. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Andrew Saville and Jason Pine joined Mike Hosking to reflect on the sport that took place over the long King’s Birthday weekend.  They covered the Warriors’ latest victory, how Super Rugby Pacific is shaping up ahead of the playoffs, and the latest in Formula 1 and IndyCar among others.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There's hope there can be a turnaround in unruly Kāinga Ora tenants.  A Government crackdown has resulted in 63 tenancy terminations in the past 10 months - up from 11 in the year before.  Formal warnings have gone up 600%.  Litigation Lawyer Adina Thorn told Mike Hosking the figures are encouraging.  She says it looks like under this government, there’s been a big step up and a moderate to good response to the behaviour that has been going on in some KO homes across New Zealand.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Little has come from another round of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. The two countries have agreed to exchange prisoners of war, including the sick and wounded, and those under 25. Ukraine has also launched large scale drone attacks on Russian air bases, damaging a third of its cruise missile carriers. Geopolitical analyst Geoffrey Miller told Mike Hosking this likely won't go down well with US President Donald Trump. He says he may see it as trying to scupper peace talks, as Trump's very much been championing the idea of talking and working out a diplomatic solution. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Christopher Luxon says the Government's making its expectations clear when it comes to behaviour in social housing.  Kāinga Ora is formally warning seven times as many tenants as it was last financial year.  It's evicted 63 tenants in 10 months for disruptive behaviour.  The Prime Minister told Mike Hosking the enforcement action is sending a clear message about what is and isn't acceptable.  He says it's a privilege to be in a state house funded by the taxpayer, and unruly behaviour isn't okay.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The first Kiwi has made it to space. Christchurch entrepreneur Mark Rocket has made history as the first New Zealander in space abroad a Blue Origin mission in West Texas.  With a New Zealand flag in hand, Rocket and five others reached 105km, experiencing zero gravity during the 11-minute sub-orbital flight run by Amazon founder Jeff Bezos' space tourism company.   Mark Rocket told Mike Hosking it was an incredible and emotional experience that he would certainly repeat.   He says some highlights were doing flips mid-air and seeing the true darkness of space.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Workplace Relations Minister hopes WorkSafe's incoming culture shift will show they're there to help, not hurt.   The Government's instructed the regulator to move away from enforcement and engage early to support risk management.  It starts with today's opening of the road cone hotline.  Minister Brooke van Velden told Mike Hosking businesses shouldn't have to sweat the small stuff.   She says there's a culture of over-compliance and too much paperwork, instead of a focus on the risk of death or serious injury.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Call me superficial, but to watch the Reserve Bank heavyweights lined up, as I did Wednesday post their cash rate decision, I did not see dynamism.  These people outwardly do not fill you with any sense of excitement.  The Reserve Bank is in a spot and, as a result, so are we as a country.  A couple of semi-interesting things happened and also one very interesting thing.  They voted 5 to 1 to cut. They don’t vote that often.  They also offered alternative scenarios, which they haven't done for five years. Alternative scenarios are not a good sign. If you have enough of them, you are literally making stuff up.  Anyone can drum up alternative scenarios. What I want to hear more of from experts is what is actually going on.  The important stuff is they have no bias on further cuts.  A lot of people thought we would get a cut yesterday, followed by one, possibly two, more.  The so-called "neutral rate", that's the cash rate settling at 2.75% or 2.5% – that now seems to be off the table.  Why?  They argue inflation, which is what drives them. That's their mandate.  The trouble with that is inflation is only just in the band. It's heading more towards the top of the band and here is the really big part – growth, or large dollops of growth, are not driving this inflation.  We are barely growing, if growing at all. Yet inflation is still a thing. That's not good for an economy and it's not good for the Government.  The Government, namely Willis and Luxon, leap, and have leapt, on each announcement talking about the money coming back into the economy as the interest rates drop. If the bank isn't cutting, then rates aren't dropping, and we aren't spending or feeling remotely bullish.  The Reserve Bank doesn’t care that much because they are fixated on inflation, whether it's driven by factors beyond our control —like insurance, shipping or councils— or growth.  Yes, we had growth in Q1. It was quite good growth too. The live GDP tracker has Q2 up a bit, but not much.  But it has annual numbers negative and inflation trending up.  What we need is help. We are in a quagmire we need to extricate ourselves from.  The Reserve Bank doesn’t look like they are that interested. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Elon Musk’s time in the US Government has come to an end.    He's posted on his platform, X, saying the mission of the Department of Government Efficiency —or DOGE— will only strengthen over time.  A White House official has confirmed Musk's departure.  US Correspondent Richard Arnold told Mike Hosking there’s been mixed reviews about his work.  Musk was only able to find $9 billion in savings, despite his pledges to cut at least $2 trillion, which tech journalist Kara Swisher says means his efforts were a failure.   She says he did a lot more showmanship than he did work.  On the other hand, Trump aide Stephen Miller says what DOGE has done is “among the most valuable services ever rendered to Government”.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.