The Mike Hosking Breakfast

There are still many questions regarding the man who drove his car into a crowd in Liverpool.  Fans of Liverpool Football Club had flooded the city's streets to celebrate its Premier League title win.  Nearly 80 people were injured, and a 53-year-old local was arrested for attempted murder.  UK Correspondent Rod Liddle told Mike Hosking one theory is that it was an accident.  He said the driver may have simply followed the ambulance and upon finding themselves surrounded by screaming people, didn’t know what to do.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

I am here to help the ol' Chipster.  The Chipster, aka Chris Hipkins, was in the building this week. I said hello to him.  He asked me when I was dropping the blacklist I have on him appearing on this show.  I said he had appeared once already this year and that was plenty. We both laughed.  What I like about him is that he doesn’t seem to take any of this personally.  He knows I think he's hopeless and he knows I think he wrecked the country. But he is playing the long game and he knows I know he will be back next year in the election campaign and, if he wins, he will be back as a regular.  Which brings me to the help.  In Australia this week their Labor Government approved the extension of a massive gas project – Woodside are Australia's largest gas producer.  Before the word came from the Government, the company had launched a fairly vigorous, and as it turns out, effective campaign reminding us all that if you want to look at Spain the other day, and indeed various parts of Europe that have been spending increasing periods of time in the dark, you will find they became obsessed with renewables and that obsessions led to blackouts.  Continuity and consistency of supply, Woodside argued, is just as important as where you get your energy.  Anyway, Labor gave them the tick. Yes, the conservationists are upset, but aren't they always?  The point for Hipkins is this: this is a Labour Government that did this. A Labour Government that romped home in an election just the other day. A Labour Government with a gargantuan majority.  Why? Because it's what you'd call here a Labour Government of old. It's a centrist Labour Government.  It's not a woke, handwringing, ideologically obsessed Labour Government of, say, 2020-2023.  Blair Hawke and David Lange are your Labour Governments of success.  Hipkins is your Labour Government of failure.  Albanese has clearly learned the lessons of history and worked them nicely to his favour. Yes, he can be centre left, but the lights will always be on.  Last time the Chipster was in charge we stopped looking for gas altogether and, as far as I know, he wouldn't start looking again.  That’s the sort of thinking that leads to blackouts and an electorate that doesn’t see you as viable. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Thursday 29th of May, the Reserve Bank made the decision to cut the OCR by 25 basis points, but did we get any sort of clear direction for the future? Acting Governor Christian Hawkesby is on the show.  The Prime Minister has recovered from his illness and is on the program to give his reaction to the OCR announcement and the public service leaks.  We love Tami Nielson, so when she has a new NZ tour to announce, a new single, a new album coming soon, and multiple NZ Music Awards nominations, we had to get her on for a chat.  Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

One of the most significant country music figures to emerge from New Zealand, Tami Neilson continues to grow on the world stage.   Later this year she’ll be touring around the US with Willie Nelson and Bob Dylan, as well as a string of European dates – but unlike some other stars, she’s not leaving New Zealand out.   Neilson is returning to our stages this October for her ‘Neon Cowgirl’ tour – performing five shows across the country.   She’ll be performing songs from her new album of the same name, which releases in July.  Although it's common for artists to labour over their work, often taking years to complete and release albums, Neilson told Mike Hosking that comparatively, she works quite quickly.  “From the time I’m kind of laying down the music to when it comes out, it’s usually a year,” she said.  “I usually write my albums and then track them within a week, so most of my albums are live off the floor.”  The recordings listeners hear are full takes performed live by Neilson and her band, which she says adds a realness to the songs.  “I think in this age of, you know, impending AI, the more we can lean into our humanity, you hope that comes through in the music and connects with other human hearts.”  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The effects of centralising New Zealand's polytechs continue to be felt.  New data shows there were about 75 thousand international students in the country last year, down from 125 thousand in 2016.  Tertiary's seen the biggest drop, halving in that timeframe.  Tertiary Education Union's national secretary Sandra Grey told Mike Hosking polytechs had major reform after Covid, which disrupted courses and staff.  She says that confuses students looking to study, who will then consider options elsewhere.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Don't bank on further cuts to the Official Cash Rate.  The Reserve Bank's dropped the OCR 25 basis points to 3.25%, and is now forecasting it could reach a low of 2.9% by the end of the year.  But Governor Christian Hawkesby says further cuts aren't guaranteed.  He told Mike Hosking they're taking things one step at a time, as they wait to see how global developments affect the economy and inflation.  Hawkesby says the OCR is now close to "neutral" and the Reserve Bank's next move won't be pre-programmed, it will depend on how things unfold.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A new plan is being touted as a way to fast track shaking up the grocery sector.  The New Zealand Initiative is proposing allowing new entrants to enter the market, rather than forcing any break-up of the existing supermarket companies.  It outlines the need for fast track plans for rezoning, consenting, overseas investment clearance, and a more neutral stance from the government.  Chief Economist Eric Crampton told Mike Hosking a new entrant should get a head start.  He says within five years the government would find out whether planning barriers are what's held companies back.  Foodstuffs and Woolworths are both members of the New Zealand Initiative.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Christopher Luxon remains hopeful the latest cut in the OCR isn't the last.  The Reserve Bank's dropped the Official Cash Rate 25 basis points to 3.25%, and is now forecasting it will reach a low of 2.9 percent in December.  But the Monetary Policy Committee wasn't able to reach a unanimous decision to cut the cash rate.  The Prime Minister told Mike Hosking Acting Governor Christian Hawkesby is dealing with a period of global uncertainty.  He says there's a huge amount of volatility that Hawkesby is navigating, but the economy is turning a corner.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

To give you an insight into just how hard Christian Hawkesby's job is today, have a look at what the shadow board says.  The NZIER has a monetary policy shadow board. It’s a bunch of economists and their view as to what should be happening.  Some say drop by 25 basis points, one says 50, and some say don’t do anything.  How do you deal with that?  These are experts. They know what they are doing. Or do they?  So no matter what Christian does some of them are going to go "what on Earth was he thinking?"  Think about the difference between 50 basis points and nothing.  50 basis points is a lot. 50 means things aren't good, and we need to fire the place up a bit.  If we don't move it means things are just where we want them.  Are they where we want them? No, is my answer. But then I'm not an economist.  Most of them say things like "boy this is tricky". My word is "uncertainty" – the watch word of the day.  It's through this murky mix of "who the hell knows what's going on" that Christian has to wade and produce something that will see us head into a half decent Christmas.  Of course that’s part of the mess we are in. There is a lot of water to go under our beleaguered bridge before Christmas, and a number of decisions from the Reserve Bank, along of course with the much-dissected commentary.  What does 25, or 50 basis points, or nothing, mean? What's old Christian thinking?  I'll tell you this for nothing – a big part of this equation is mood. It’s the same with the Budget last week and the depreciation measures.  You have to want to get amongst it. You have to take your mortgage rate cut and do something with it. You have to want to buy your tractor, or ute, and depreciate it by 20%.  If you are in a funk and you're not spending, then depreciating 20% of zero is nothing and no one gains.  Christian, or Nicola for that matter, can't do it all. At some point we have to believe. We have to have our arm twisted. We have to see a bit of light.  The most powerful factor in any economy is us, and mood.  At some point a switch has to go off, a decision has to be made, and we need to look forward to better days.  Let's hope today is a part of that story. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A new horticultural initiative is set to transform New Zealand into a commercial catnip producer.  Kiwi startup, Muttley's Estate, is believed to be the world’s first manufacturer of catnip-based 'pet wine', that can be stored for up to 12 months.  The garden herb's estimated to positively impact mood in about two-thirds of cats while helping to soothe anxiety in dogs.  Muttley's Estate Director John Roberts told Mike Hosking catnip's currently not very widespread or commercially used.  He says they're trying to grow that market segment, as it's a relatively easy crop to grow.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.