Carnegie Politika Podcast

Since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, life for Russia’s rich and powerful has passed the point of no return. The recent suicide of Roman Starovoit is the first case in post-Soviet Russia of a cabinet minister taking their own life when faced with an investigation and possible prison term. For many, it has brought back memories of Joseph Stalin’s purges in the 1930s. How are members of the Russian elite processing Starovoit’s death? If the old rules of the game no longer apply, are there any new rules? How will the death affect Putin’s control over his power vertical?Check out the newsletter Fairdaily on Substack.Alexandra Prokopenko's piece on Roman Starovoit's death.Tatiana Stanovaya's piece on Russian elites.

This year’s NATO summit was very unusual on multiple levels. Amid the disruption brought by Donald Trump’s presidency, and with Ukraine’s European allies adamant that continuing U.S. leadership is needed to help the embattled country at the most critical point in its defensive war against Russia, NATO members made an unprecedented commitment to spend 5% of GDP on defense by 2035. Where is NATO headed under Trump 2.0? Will its European members be able to implement the defense spending targets set in The Hague? What lessons is the Kremlin taking from the summit, and how could NATO affect Putin’s war optimism?

The war between Israel and Iran, Russia’s key partner in the Middle East, is entering its second week, with potential for escalation and worrisome spillover effects. Yet Moscow is not rushing to support Tehran in any meaningful way. President Vladimir Putin has even downplayed the significance of the strategic partnership agreement signed with Iran just six months ago. Instead, Putin is courting Donald Trump, offering mediation: an offer the U.S. president was quick to reject. Will there be a more heavy-handed intervention by the Kremlin to help Iran? What cards can Russia still play to remain relevant? How could the escalating conflict in the Middle East affect Russia’s strategic position, including in Ukraine?

At the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Western leaders put a lot of faith in applying economic pressure to Russia, and it is now probably the most sanctioned country in the world.But despite the unprecedented sanctions tsunami, the Russian economy is yet to collapse. How long can the Kremlin maintain its ever-growing military spending and the overall economic imbalances? Will Putin be able to simultaneously finance his costly war, keep the population happy, and maintain macroeconomic stability? For additional insight into this issue, read Alexandra Prokopenko's piece for Foreign Affairs on Putin’s trilemma: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/putin-not-yet-desperate

Soon after the start of the war in Ukraine, Russia stopped publishing official data on its military losses. Despite that, analysts from independent media still manage to extract data from multiple sources, such as regional obituaries, payments, satellite images, and other open-source intelligence resources. How did Mediazona, a civil rights media outlet, become a leading source of data on Russia’s losses? How reliable is the data, and what does it tell us? Will the growing military casualties ever lead to a public backlash in Russia?You can read Mediazona's analysis here: https://en.zona.media/article/2025/04/25/casualties_eng-trlIf you would like to support Mediazona’s work, you can make a donation here: https://donate.zona.media/en?utm_source=header-web&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=regular

Russia’s Victory Day public holiday, celebrated on May 9, has undergone a major transformation in Putin’s Russia. Historically, it was a day of somber commemoration, and its main leitmotif was “Never again.” Under Putin, the holiday has become increasingly militaristic, with the memorial aspect now overshadowed by the far more belligerent slogan “We can do it again.” How did this happen, and what role does Victory Day play in the Putin regime today?

While recent diplomatic efforts to bring Ukraine and Russia to a peace deal and the unexpected Easter truce announced by Putin are bearing no fruit, the situation on the battlefield remains the most influential factor in the future trajectory of the war—including diplomatic attempts to bring the conflict to a halt. Donald Trump seems to believe that Ukraine will inevitably lose the war if a peace deal that can satisfy the Kremlin isn’t achieved. But is that really the case? What shape are Ukrainian and Russian forces in in terms of manpower, equipment, and tactics? And what are the potential scenarios for the 2025 campaign?

When U.S. President Donald Trump announced his long list of reciprocal tariffs, many instantly noticed that one country had escaped any restrictions: Russia. Does that mean Russia is now a safe haven amid the ongoing economic storm? And what are the consequences for Moscow of a falling oil price, and the unprecedented U.S. tariffs on China, Russia's most significant trading partner?

Throughout the war, many people have been skeptical about how long Ukrainian society could hold up before inevitably collapsing under Russian pressure. After three full years of war, there are no signs of discord or the looming collapse of the unity of the Ukrainian people. After his public dressing-down by Trump in the Oval Office, Zelensky’s popularity only increased. But is the real picture more nuanced than this? What processes are unfolding right now inside Ukraine?

What is the reason for the sudden change of heart in U.S. policy on Russia under the Trump administration? One theory is that Donald Trump is trying to lure Russia out of China’s sphere of influence and drive a wedge between Moscow and Beijing, a move described by some as a “reverse Kissinger.” How accurate is that theory, and does the U.S. administration have the instruments needed to pry China and Russia apart?