Carnegie Politika Podcast

CarnegiePolitika.org
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Oct 16, 2025 • 31min

How to Handle Russia’s Frozen Assets in the EU, With Robert Zoellick

Russian assets abroad were frozen almost as soon as the country launched its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The idea of seizing those assets and transferring them to Ukraine has been discussed in Western capitals for more than three years, but no significant action has been taken because the assets are protected by sovereign immunity and the West is officially not at war with Russia. Now, with a new administration in the United States and the war of attrition in Ukraine dragging on, European leaders find themselves between a rock—the need to show unwavering support for Ukraine—and a hard place: growing public discontent at having to fund this war from European pockets, when there are billions of euros in Russian money sitting in Western bank accounts.What would the procedure be for embarking on such a complex legal matter? What would setting such a precedent mean for the EU, the euro, and the dollar, and for the countries looking to deposit their reserves in the EU? And does Europe have a plan B if internal divisions can’t be overcome?
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Oct 2, 2025 • 29min

What to Do About Russian Drones in NATO Airspace, with Justyna Gotkowska

Justyna Gotkowska, Deputy Director of OSW and expert in defense policy, delves into recent Russian drone incursions into NATO airspace. She discusses Moscow's motives, such as testing NATO's reactions and pressuring Europe. Justyna highlights Poland's united response amidst Russian disinformation and the high costs of countering drones versus investing in advanced defense systems. She also considers the balance Eastern European states must strike between national defense and support for Ukraine, touching on the debate around a no-fly zone.
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Sep 18, 2025 • 33min

Putin’s War Engine: How Healthy is Russia’s Oil and Gas Industry? With Sergey Vakulenko

Sergey Vakulenko, a senior energy analyst specializing in the Russian oil and gas sector, discusses the resilience of Russia's energy industry under intense sanctions and ongoing attacks. He explores how major drone strikes have impacted oil refinery capacities and the complexities of falling global oil prices. The conversation delves into the evolving energy partnership with China and its implications. Sergey also analyzes India's shifting purchasing patterns amidst U.S. pressures and the feasibility of Europe phasing out Russian oil altogether.
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13 snips
Sep 4, 2025 • 46min

Better Than Ever? Russia-China Relations, with Sergey Radchenko

At this week’s Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping seemed determined to show the whole world that Russia-China relations are better than they have ever been. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China has become Putin’s most valuable ally, both in diplomacy and on the battlefield, providing dual-purpose technology for Moscow to continue its aggression. Are Sino-Russian relations really at their peak? What can the history of the USSR and China teach us about the nature of this union? How strong is the bond between the two?
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Jul 31, 2025 • 37min

What’s Going On Inside Belarus with Artyom Shraibman

Since the regime brutally crushed opposition protests in 2020, Belarus has rarely made the headlines. Some see the country as a loyal satellite of Russia, stripped of all agency, others overlook it entirely. Despite the lack of attention, though, much of significance is currently underway. In recent months, Belarus has hosted Western officials, released political prisoners, and apparently tried to distance itself from Moscow (despite allowing Russia to deploy nuclear weapons on its territory). What is happening inside Belarus? And what should Western officials understand about one of the most important pieces of the European security puzzle?For additional insight on a possible Russia-Europe conflict, and the role of Belarus, see Artyom Shraibman's paper.You can also read Balázs Jarábik's piece on Belarus.
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Jul 17, 2025 • 50min

Back to the Stalin Era? An Inside Look at the Russian Elites, with Farida Rustamova and Margarita Liutova

Since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, life for Russia’s rich and powerful has passed the point of no return. The recent suicide of Roman Starovoit is the first case in post-Soviet Russia of a cabinet minister taking their own life when faced with an investigation and possible prison term. For many, it has brought back memories of Joseph Stalin’s purges in the 1930s. How are members of the Russian elite processing Starovoit’s death? If the old rules of the game no longer apply, are there any new rules? How will the death affect Putin’s control over his power vertical?Check out the newsletter Fairdaily on Substack.Alexandra Prokopenko's piece on Roman Starovoit's death.Tatiana Stanovaya's piece on Russian elites.
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Jul 3, 2025 • 31min

What Was That? The NATO Summit 2025, with Nathaniel Reynolds

This year’s NATO summit was very unusual on multiple levels. Amid the disruption brought by Donald Trump’s presidency, and with Ukraine’s European allies adamant that continuing U.S. leadership is needed to help the embattled country at the most critical point in its defensive war against Russia, NATO members made an unprecedented commitment to spend 5% of GDP on defense by 2035. Where is NATO headed under Trump 2.0? Will its European members be able to implement the defense spending targets set in The Hague? What lessons is the Kremlin taking from the summit, and how could NATO affect Putin’s war optimism?
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Jun 19, 2025 • 27min

A Friend in Need? Decoding Russia’s Position on the Israel-Iran War, with Nicole Grajewski and Arkady Mil-Man

The war between Israel and Iran, Russia’s key partner in the Middle East, is entering its second week, with potential for escalation and worrisome spillover effects. Yet Moscow is not rushing to support Tehran in any meaningful way. President Vladimir Putin has even downplayed the significance of the strategic partnership agreement signed with Iran just six months ago. Instead, Putin is courting Donald Trump, offering mediation: an offer the U.S. president was quick to reject. Will there be a more heavy-handed intervention by the Kremlin to help Iran? What cards can Russia still play to remain relevant? How could the escalating conflict in the Middle East affect Russia’s strategic position, including in Ukraine?
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Jun 5, 2025 • 23min

How Stable Is the Russian War Economy? With Alexandra Prokopenko

At the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Western leaders put a lot of faith in applying economic pressure to Russia, and it is now probably the most sanctioned country in the world.But despite the unprecedented sanctions tsunami, the Russian economy is yet to collapse. How long can the Kremlin maintain its ever-growing military spending and the overall economic imbalances? Will Putin be able to simultaneously finance his costly war, keep the population happy, and maintain macroeconomic stability? For additional insight into this issue, read Alexandra Prokopenko's piece for Foreign Affairs on Putin’s trilemma: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/putin-not-yet-desperate
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May 22, 2025 • 42min

Calculating Russia’s Losses in Ukraine, With Mika Golubovsky and David Frenkel

Soon after the start of the war in Ukraine, Russia stopped publishing official data on its military losses. Despite that, analysts from independent media still manage to extract data from multiple sources, such as regional obituaries, payments, satellite images, and other open-source intelligence resources. How did Mediazona, a civil rights media outlet, become a leading source of data on Russia’s losses? How reliable is the data, and what does it tell us? Will the growing military casualties ever lead to a public backlash in Russia?You can read Mediazona's analysis here: https://en.zona.media/article/2025/04/25/casualties_eng-trlIf you would like to support Mediazona’s work, you can make a donation here: https://donate.zona.media/en?utm_source=header-web&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=regular

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