Carnegie Politika Podcast

Over the last month, there have been multiple violations of NATO airspace by Russian fighter jets and drones most likely launched by Russia. The alliance must now come up with an adequate response to this “probing” by the Kremlin and develop a sensible strategy to prevent future violations—while managing the risk of escalation. What is the Kremlin trying to achieve? How prepared is NATO to face this challenge, and what would an effective mitigation strategy look like? How will this new dynamic impact the war in Ukraine and the level of European support for Kyiv?

Sergey Vakulenko, a senior energy analyst specializing in the Russian oil and gas sector, discusses the resilience of Russia's energy industry under intense sanctions and ongoing attacks. He explores how major drone strikes have impacted oil refinery capacities and the complexities of falling global oil prices. The conversation delves into the evolving energy partnership with China and its implications. Sergey also analyzes India's shifting purchasing patterns amidst U.S. pressures and the feasibility of Europe phasing out Russian oil altogether.

At this week’s Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping seemed determined to show the whole world that Russia-China relations are better than they have ever been. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China has become Putin’s most valuable ally, both in diplomacy and on the battlefield, providing dual-purpose technology for Moscow to continue its aggression. Are Sino-Russian relations really at their peak? What can the history of the USSR and China teach us about the nature of this union? How strong is the bond between the two?

Since the regime brutally crushed opposition protests in 2020, Belarus has rarely made the headlines. Some see the country as a loyal satellite of Russia, stripped of all agency, others overlook it entirely. Despite the lack of attention, though, much of significance is currently underway. In recent months, Belarus has hosted Western officials, released political prisoners, and apparently tried to distance itself from Moscow (despite allowing Russia to deploy nuclear weapons on its territory). What is happening inside Belarus? And what should Western officials understand about one of the most important pieces of the European security puzzle?For additional insight on a possible Russia-Europe conflict, and the role of Belarus, see Artyom Shraibman's paper.You can also read Balázs Jarábik's piece on Belarus.

Since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, life for Russia’s rich and powerful has passed the point of no return. The recent suicide of Roman Starovoit is the first case in post-Soviet Russia of a cabinet minister taking their own life when faced with an investigation and possible prison term. For many, it has brought back memories of Joseph Stalin’s purges in the 1930s. How are members of the Russian elite processing Starovoit’s death? If the old rules of the game no longer apply, are there any new rules? How will the death affect Putin’s control over his power vertical?Check out the newsletter Fairdaily on Substack.Alexandra Prokopenko's piece on Roman Starovoit's death.Tatiana Stanovaya's piece on Russian elites.

This year’s NATO summit was very unusual on multiple levels. Amid the disruption brought by Donald Trump’s presidency, and with Ukraine’s European allies adamant that continuing U.S. leadership is needed to help the embattled country at the most critical point in its defensive war against Russia, NATO members made an unprecedented commitment to spend 5% of GDP on defense by 2035. Where is NATO headed under Trump 2.0? Will its European members be able to implement the defense spending targets set in The Hague? What lessons is the Kremlin taking from the summit, and how could NATO affect Putin’s war optimism?

The war between Israel and Iran, Russia’s key partner in the Middle East, is entering its second week, with potential for escalation and worrisome spillover effects. Yet Moscow is not rushing to support Tehran in any meaningful way. President Vladimir Putin has even downplayed the significance of the strategic partnership agreement signed with Iran just six months ago. Instead, Putin is courting Donald Trump, offering mediation: an offer the U.S. president was quick to reject. Will there be a more heavy-handed intervention by the Kremlin to help Iran? What cards can Russia still play to remain relevant? How could the escalating conflict in the Middle East affect Russia’s strategic position, including in Ukraine?

At the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Western leaders put a lot of faith in applying economic pressure to Russia, and it is now probably the most sanctioned country in the world.But despite the unprecedented sanctions tsunami, the Russian economy is yet to collapse. How long can the Kremlin maintain its ever-growing military spending and the overall economic imbalances? Will Putin be able to simultaneously finance his costly war, keep the population happy, and maintain macroeconomic stability? For additional insight into this issue, read Alexandra Prokopenko's piece for Foreign Affairs on Putin’s trilemma: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/putin-not-yet-desperate

Soon after the start of the war in Ukraine, Russia stopped publishing official data on its military losses. Despite that, analysts from independent media still manage to extract data from multiple sources, such as regional obituaries, payments, satellite images, and other open-source intelligence resources. How did Mediazona, a civil rights media outlet, become a leading source of data on Russia’s losses? How reliable is the data, and what does it tell us? Will the growing military casualties ever lead to a public backlash in Russia?You can read Mediazona's analysis here: https://en.zona.media/article/2025/04/25/casualties_eng-trlIf you would like to support Mediazona’s work, you can make a donation here: https://donate.zona.media/en?utm_source=header-web&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=regular

Russia’s Victory Day public holiday, celebrated on May 9, has undergone a major transformation in Putin’s Russia. Historically, it was a day of somber commemoration, and its main leitmotif was “Never again.” Under Putin, the holiday has become increasingly militaristic, with the memorial aspect now overshadowed by the far more belligerent slogan “We can do it again.” How did this happen, and what role does Victory Day play in the Putin regime today?