Carnegie Politika Podcast Putin’s War Engine: How Healthy is Russia’s Oil and Gas Industry? With Sergey Vakulenko
Sep 18, 2025
Sergey Vakulenko, a senior energy analyst specializing in the Russian oil and gas sector, discusses the resilience of Russia's energy industry under intense sanctions and ongoing attacks. He explores how major drone strikes have impacted oil refinery capacities and the complexities of falling global oil prices. The conversation delves into the evolving energy partnership with China and its implications. Sergey also analyzes India's shifting purchasing patterns amidst U.S. pressures and the feasibility of Europe phasing out Russian oil altogether.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Ruble Cushion Has Eroded
- Russia no longer gets ruble compensation from a weaker ruble when oil prices fall because many sales are in rubles and trade with China has shrunk.
- This translates into lower living standards, reduced government spending, and squeezed oil company investment decisions.
OPEC+ Can't Fully Replace Russian Oil
- OPEC+ returning 2 million barrels per day hasn't replaced the roughly 7 million bpd that Russia supplies to global markets.
- Global storage and market dynamics limit how much extra production can truly displace Russian volumes and lower prices substantially.
US LNG Is Rebalancing Global Gas
- U.S. LNG capacity is expanding rapidly and will materially loosen tight global gas markets by 2026–2028.
- New LNG exports compete with rising AI and industrial gas demand, creating a complex supply–demand race.