Carnegie Politika Podcast

While recent diplomatic efforts to bring Ukraine and Russia to a peace deal and the unexpected Easter truce announced by Putin are bearing no fruit, the situation on the battlefield remains the most influential factor in the future trajectory of the war—including diplomatic attempts to bring the conflict to a halt. Donald Trump seems to believe that Ukraine will inevitably lose the war if a peace deal that can satisfy the Kremlin isn’t achieved. But is that really the case? What shape are Ukrainian and Russian forces in in terms of manpower, equipment, and tactics? And what are the potential scenarios for the 2025 campaign?

When U.S. President Donald Trump announced his long list of reciprocal tariffs, many instantly noticed that one country had escaped any restrictions: Russia. Does that mean Russia is now a safe haven amid the ongoing economic storm? And what are the consequences for Moscow of a falling oil price, and the unprecedented U.S. tariffs on China, Russia's most significant trading partner?

Throughout the war, many people have been skeptical about how long Ukrainian society could hold up before inevitably collapsing under Russian pressure. After three full years of war, there are no signs of discord or the looming collapse of the unity of the Ukrainian people. After his public dressing-down by Trump in the Oval Office, Zelensky’s popularity only increased. But is the real picture more nuanced than this? What processes are unfolding right now inside Ukraine?

What is the reason for the sudden change of heart in U.S. policy on Russia under the Trump administration? One theory is that Donald Trump is trying to lure Russia out of China’s sphere of influence and drive a wedge between Moscow and Beijing, a move described by some as a “reverse Kissinger.” How accurate is that theory, and does the U.S. administration have the instruments needed to pry China and Russia apart?

With the arrival of the new administration in the White House, everyone waited with bated breath for the first executive orders regarding the war in Ukraine. The actions of President Donald Trump and his team have not only damaged the United States’ reputation, but also overall transatlantic unity and—most importantly—Ukraine's prospects of security guarantees and a lasting peace. After the latest high-profile talks in Saudi Arabia, the world has been left to ponder what it all means.

In 2022, in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz declared “Zeitenwende”—a “turning point” in how Germany should think about its defense and security. As the third anniversary of the war approaches amid signs that the Trump administration wants to bring it to an end on terms favorable to Russia, Germany is yet to form a new government following the collapse of Scholz’s coalition. What does the upcoming federal election mean for Germany and its role supporting Ukraine? What changes to German and EU defense can be expected, depending on the composition of the new coalition?

Since Donald Trump’s inauguration as U.S. president, ways to stop the carnage in Ukraine this year have been the subject of intense policy discussions in capitals around the world. Despite Trump’s rhetoric about ending the war swiftly and forcing Putin into a deal, there is still no clear vision of how a cessation of hostilities could be reached. Does the new team in the White House have what it takes to secure a deal that guarantees Ukraine’s sovereignty, and what is the way forward?

For a long time, oil and gas sales were the Russian economy’s main source of income. Since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the EU and U.S. have unleashed unprecedented sanctions upon the Russian energy sector. The effectiveness of this pressure is hotly debated, since Russia has proved able to continue its assault.What is the current state of the Russian oil and gas sector? How have the last three years changed Russia’s approach to selling energy commodities, and how have developments affected the global energy market? Check out Sergey’s piece on the Russian shadow fleet for Carnegie Politika – https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2024/09/russia-oil-fleet-sanctions?lang=en&center=russia-eurasiaAnd Sergey’s piece for Financial Times (subject to a paywall) – https://www.ft.com/content/68403277-9cda-491c-aeeb-7dbe77850df6

Russia has had a strong military presence in Syria ever since 2015, bolstering the regime of Bashar al-Assad and pushing back the rebels. But in the space of a few days this month, the rebels were able to take major cities including Damascus and overthrow the government. Assad was forced to flee the country and seek refuge in Moscow. What does this mean for Russia, which had invested a lot of resources in Syria and used it as a bargaining chip in the power play in the Middle East? What will the fallout be from this sudden change of political climate?

James Acton, Co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment, joins to discuss the recent developments in the Ukraine conflict and Russia's new Oreshnik missile. He analyzes the potential for nuclear escalation and its implications for Western decision-making. The conversation touches on the evolution of Russia’s military strategy, the historical context of missile diplomacy, and lessons from past arms control agreements. With tensions high, Acton offers insights into navigating this precarious geopolitical landscape.