Carnegie Politika Podcast Does Ukraine Need a Ceasefire at Any Cost? With Michael Kofman
Apr 24, 2025
Michael Kofman, senior fellow and frontline Russia/Ukraine military analyst, breaks down battlefield realities. He discusses whether Ukraine needs an immediate ceasefire. He unpacks manpower gaps, the rise of drone warfare, likely Russian axes of advance, and 2025 strategy priorities. He also weighs risks if US support wanes and what Europe can realistically supply.
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Frontline Stability Now
- The frontline is stable and not on the verge of collapse despite renewed Russian offensives.
- Ukraine does not need an immediate ceasefire but likely needs one eventually because prolonged war is unsustainable for both sides.
Manpower Is The Core Asymmetry
- Manpower is Ukraine's biggest asymmetry versus Russia, not population per se but force generation and front-line infantry availability.
- Ukraine compensates with drones, mines, and fires to reduce needed manpower but cannot hold the entire front with drones alone.
Different Paths To Force Generation
- Russia bought manpower via contracting and rising pay, enabling it to replace losses and form new units at scale.
- Ukraine scaled drone production and reorganized units to attrit Russian attacking forces effectively.