ChinaTalk

Stephen Roach, a Yale professor and expert on China's economy and US-China relations, dives into some thought-provoking topics. He suggests that both nations may need a kind of 'relationship therapy' to address their intertwined issues. Roach discusses how distorted narratives hinder diplomatic efforts and raises concerns about a potential hot conflict over Taiwan. He also proposes innovative solutions like a US-China Secretariat based in neutral Tahiti to foster better communication and collaboration, while questioning which side is truly committed to engagement.

Paul Scharre, Vice President and Director of Studies at CNAS, delves into the evolution of AI in military strategy. He reveals how AI outperforms humans in tactical scenarios like dogfighting and the implications for future warfare. Scharre discusses the U.S.'s competitive edge in talent and computing power against China. He also addresses the 'dictator's dilemma' that AI presents to the CCP and the complexities of regulating such technology amid rising geopolitical tensions. Plus, tips on interviewing like a pro in China!

Akshay Singh, a research associate at the Centre for International Policy Studies in Ottawa, dives deep into the hot topic of foreign influence and interference. He explores the proposed creation of a foreign agent registry in Canada to boost transparency. The conversation also touches on the complexities of local governments addressing these challenges, especially within the Chinese diaspora. Singh discusses China's United Front strategy and Canada's international alliances, emphasizing the need for a coordinated response to foreign meddling.

Reva Goujon, an analyst at the Rhodium Group, and JP Kleinhans from SNV join Jay Goldberg of Digits and Dollars and Dylan Patel of SemiAnalysis for a riveting discussion. They delve into the CHIPS Act's funding priorities, revealing its impact on major semiconductor firms. The group also explores the existential implications of AI on global power dynamics and the rising risk of a tech 'splinternet.' Additionally, they examine the geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China and how these dynamics shape the future of technological innovation.

Kevin Xu, an Obama-era official and creator of Interconnect, dives into the recent TikTok hearing, exploring its implications for U.S.-China tech relations. He discusses the scrutiny TikTok faces compared to American counterparts and the challenges posed by cross-border dependencies, especially in battery technology. Xu reflects on lost opportunities from the past, and how GPT-4 is revolutionizing translation, enhancing global collaboration. The conversation sheds light on the evolving landscape of tech and the political dynamics shaping it.

Stephen Kotkin, a renowned historian known for his insights on Stalin and Chinese communism, dives deep into the complexities of China's political landscape. He discusses the CCP's fear of color revolutions and the implications of Gorbachev’s reforms. Kotkin evaluates the challenges of maintaining control in authoritarian regimes and the dual nature of leadership, citing the importance of empathy in navigating US-China relations. He also presents reasons for cautious optimism about future diplomacy despite escalating tensions.

Zvi Moskowitz, a Substack blogger dedicated to AI insights; Nathan Labenz, founder of Waymark and a red teamer for GPT-4; and Matthew Mittelsteadt, a Mercatus Center research fellow, dive into the world of AI. They explore how GPT-4's advancements will transform policy and economics. The trio discusses the U.S.-China tech rivalry and the implications for global AI safety, emphasizing the need for diverse governance perspectives. They also highlight AI's potential in education and healthcare, alongside ethical concerns and the risks of miscommunication.

Dennis Wilder, a seasoned CIA veteran focused on China, shares his insights on U.S. intelligence strategies. He emphasizes the need for hiring staff with firsthand experience in China to improve analysis. Wilder discusses the importance of reinstating the Foreign Broadcast Intelligence Service for deeper insights into Chinese policies. He also highlights the establishment of China House and the CIA's China Mission Center. Notably, he draws lessons from the overlooked expertise of Raymond P. Ludden, advocating for a revised approach to facing modern geopolitical challenges.

Nick Mulder, author of "The Economic Weapon," delves into the role of economic sanctions throughout history. He discusses how the Great Depression paradoxically lowered commodity prices, impacting protectionism in Germany and Japan. Mulder introduces the concept of "temporal claustrophobia" in Japan’s decision-making. The discussion includes North Korea's resilience against fuel embargoes and the lessons modern policymakers can learn from pre-WWII sanctions, highlighting parallels with today’s semiconductor export controls.

Nick Mulder, a Cornell history professor and author of "The Economic Weapon," dives into the history of economic sanctions as a tool of war. He explores how countries like Britain approached sanctions during the Crimean War and discusses the reluctance of Europeans to use blockades in the early 20th century. Mulder also highlights Wilson's moral sanctions post-World War I and examines the League of Nations' failed attempts at positive sanctions. Stay tuned for insights on how this history connects to US-China relations!