Jon, Dylan, and Doug discuss the impact of new export control regulations on AI chips, the challenges in the EDA market, the potential ban of DV tools on ASML, exploring atomic layer deposition and speculating on Nvidia's chip for China, the power of lobbyists in shaping regulations, and the importance of improving existing products and revenue generation.
New export regulations target AI chips and advanced computing chips, impacting major chip manufacturers like NVIDIA and potentially limiting China's ability to manufacture advanced chips.
Licensing requirements and restrictions on tool transfers aim to close loopholes and prevent circumvention, with potential future restrictions and harmonization with the Netherlands.
Uncertainties and potential gaps remain in the restrictions on semiconductor equipment exports, highlighting the need for stricter enforcement and potential adjustments to ensure desired impact.
Deep dives
Impact of Export Restrictions on AI Chip Performance
The new regulations on AI chip exports aim to close the loopholes in previous restrictions. Performance and density of AI chips will be the main criteria for determining export eligibility. Companies previously able to ship chips to China with minor de-ratings will now face stricter limitations. This impacts major chip manufacturers like NVIDIA, with most of their chips being banned, except for the 30A series. The regulations also address chiplet assembly, protecting against the final chip being assembled in China using imported chiplets.
Implications of Advanced Computing Chip Restrictions
New restrictions target advanced computing chips to prevent circumvention. Licensing requirements are introduced for companies whose parent is headquartered in Beijing, closing the Alibaba loophole. Reselling and transferring tools are also subject to licensing requirements. Challenges arise regarding tool transfers and discrepancies with ASML's 1980 eye tool, potentially impacting China's ability to manufacture advanced chips. Additional restrictions and harmonization with the Netherlands may be expected in the future.
Considerations on Semiconductor Equipment Restrictions
While new restrictions on semiconductor equipment exports aim to address vulnerabilities, certain gaps and uncertainties remain. The restrictions do not significantly affect most equipment sales, and loopholes may still allow routing of tools to China through reselling and other means. Concerns arise regarding monitoring and enforcement, as well as potential attempts to bypass restrictions. Focus on the deposition process and potential impact on leading-edge semiconductor manufacturing provides insight into future developments.
Evaluation of ASML's 1980 Eye Tool
ASML's 1980 eye tool, widely used in 7-nanometer chip production, has faced scrutiny due to potential restrictions. The interpretation of regulations indicates that this tool may be banned, closing a significant loophole. However, concerns arise regarding the servicing and utilization of existing tools in China. ASML's recent earnings report suggests uncertainty and potential challenges in complying with the regulations.
Critique of Export Restrictions Implementation
The implementation of the export restrictions raises concerns about clarity and effectiveness. Delayed action by the US government and potential ambiguities in the regulations have created challenges for industry understanding and compliance. The rapid growth of the semiconductor market in China highlights the need for stricter enforcement to prevent circumvention. Further adjustments and restrictions may be necessary to ensure the desired impact.
BIS just released its revision to the Oct 7 2022 restrictions. Jon of Asianometry, Dylan of Semianalysis, and Doug of Fabricated Knowledge join the pod to discuss why NVIDIA got screwed, why ASML may not have, and what these regs mean for the future of China and AI.
Outtro music: Warren G Regulate remix https://soundcloud.com/dj-eric-rhodes/warren-wallen-mashup-final-edit