The Dividend Cafe

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3PxghfG Today, I would like to use the last five years to make some broader points about the realities of investing. Evergreen realities are, well, permanent. Yet we find within the last five years some serious bold-faced reiteration of these realities to which I refer (and as you will soon see, there actually is a particular single reality most on my radar this week). So, in this week’s Dividend Cafe, we will look at the last five years and extract from this little short-term window some big-picture lessons that are sure to matter for more than just the last five years. Consider it part “History” (albeit recent history) and part “Investing 101” … Jump on into the Dividend Cafe! Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/466evrH Markets acted a little more 2022-ish today, with defensives all up and Technology way down. Reports of a Chinese iPhone ban from government departments took a toll, and the U.S. dollar may be headed to its eighth consecutive weekly increase (longest streak since 2005 if it holds). Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3LcqThy Oil is the story of markets yet again, with Brent now passing $90 and WTI Crude passing $87. The idea that oil was between $65 and $75 for months and we did nothing to help re-fill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is just surreal to me. These prices at now 10-month highs are sure to exacerbate the delta between core and headline inflation in the months ahead. Just 37% of companies in the S&P 500 were above their 50-day moving average this morning as internal momentum continues to dissipate. China and Japan are not happy about the dollar’s recent rise and are pledging decisive action to arrest their own currency’s drop relative to the U.S. dollar. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3r2cE8d This is the kind of DC Today I love love love writing – where I really get to absorb a lot of material and bring pen to paper (or finger to keys) in all categories. I always loved this format the most, and being able to do this long-form version once a week is a true joy for me. Doing it every single day as I did for quite some time (though today’s is fuller than even the old format normally was) just became way too much, and I do hope the new program (long-form once a week, shorter form with daily podcast/video three times a week, Dividend Cafe on Friday) is working for everyone. I certainly solicit feedback about that. But in the meantime, enjoy this first post-Labor Day “fall and football are here” version of the DC Today. Note the deep dive into Public Policy and Housing (with all categories covered). Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/487nJFU So you may have seen in yesterday’s DC Today that my plans for an out-of-country few days with my wife this week, unplugged from work and electronics, was foiled yet again, this time by Hurricane Franklin. We have a running list over the last nearly 25 years of that which has prevented such an “unplugging,” and truth-be-told, we just are what we are. It seems to be a bigger focus to others that we “relax” and “take it easy” than it is to us. We accept this is a full-time job. But yes, it was not the week we had thought was coming. This week’s Dividend Cafe is the Dividend Cafe I thought was coming, though. A long list of really thoughtful questions is worked through covering such topics as the Fed, private credit, growth investing, the U.S. dollar, Saudi Arabia, the 2024 election, municipal bonds, and so much more. It is a lot of fun and sure to offer something for everyone. So jump on in to the Dividend Cafe. There may be a hurricane in Bermuda, but there is clarity, perspective and answers, in this place where we belong. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/47WCxH3 I arrived back in California late last evening with Hurricane Franklin having cancelled our previously mentioned trip out of the country. Joleen and I replaced it with a couple days away at our place in the Hamptons, not exactly unplugged, but not exactly fully working. Maybe the notion of a true work-free unplugged trip will happen some day, but I have to say, so far, a pretty comical list of sincere attempts to see it happen have been tried and failed. I am very grateful to Brian Szytel for the last three days of DC Todays and I am back in the California office today and happy to be back with you. We are up to an 89% chance in the futures market of a rate hike at the next Fed meeting in late September, and a 54% chance of no hike at the meeting after that in November. The five-year inflation breakeven priced in the TIPS market is 2.16%. Atlanta Fed President, Raphael Bostic, cautioned against the Fed over-tightening and said current Fed policy was “appropriately restrictive.” Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3sAjvX7 Futures looked like we were going to give a little back from the move higher the past three days until about 830AM EST when we got a slew of softer than expected economic data, and since bad news is the new good for markets, moved us back into positive territory on the day. Q2 GDP was revised a little lower, ADP Payroll came in weaker than expected, and the part that is actually good news (meaning not a number showing our economy quite as fast as we thought and less people are finding jobs), Core PCE came in lower than expected for Q2. After yesterdays softer job openings and then today, fed fund futures are slowly tilting back towards peak rates but we are still at 55% pause and 45% hike for Nov/Dec. A good amount of numbers below for you, and a better amount of walking through it all in the video podcast link. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3L3fHUy The third up day in a row in markets today in a broad-based rally that closed at the high. The S&P 500 is still down 2% for the month, but with three trading days left in the last week of summer, we’ll see if we get a little more back before Labor Day weekend. Yields were lower across the entire curve today, with treasuries rallying following a much lower-than-expected July JOLTS new jobs report. Following yesterday’s underwhelming market response to stimulus, China is considering having its major banks decrease mortgage rates on about 38 trillion yuan ($5T) worth of existing loans which moved markets there up 2% on the day. Whether those efforts will prove effective will have to be seen, but I do think it’s putting a bid in global energy prices, which were up again today. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Pe4vqK Brian Szytel takes on DC Today through Wednesday, so we leave you in his capable hands! Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Pe4vqK The right thing to do with Dividend Cafe the weekend USC football season is beginning is just replay last year’s edition over and over again, one of my favorite Dividend Cafes of all time … But alas, I have never rehashed old material for a Dividend Cafe since this weekly writing began in September of 2008 and I won’t start now. Fresh and new every week is the commitment, so fresh and new you shall receive (no matters how much Fight On it sometimes entails). You may have heard that tbere are other things happening in the world besides USC’s imminent kickoff to their season. As I type Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, is preparing to speak at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. In the last 15 months or so he has raised the federal funds target rate over 5%, something nearly 100% of economists would have predicted would break the back of the economy a year ago. Here we are a year later, and not only is the economy not broken, but markets are not all that distraught, either. They aren’t great. And economic growth is tepid. But nothing has broken. Yet. But we are not exactly out of the woods, either. And in fact one could argue that the damage done from the Fed’s tightening has surfaced (or is about to surface) in less obvious ways. And that is the subject of this week’s Dividend Cafe. Maybe the Fed wants to create 7% unemployment (because, you know, more people unemployed brings down prices). Maybe a lot of economists predict that will happen (and were predicting it 18 months ago). But whether economic recession should happen (it shouldn’t) or will happen (TBD), there are certainly other looming problems that warrant discussion. And for that discussion, you will want to jump in to this week’s Dividend Cafe! Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com