The Dividend Cafe

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3EPBStR Actually, the inspiration for this week’s Dividend Cafe is not “why markets were down this week or this month” – but rather something more substantial and thematic. There are some “whys” that are more important than “whats” right now and big picture, I felt certain macroeconomic themes we are watching were worth a whole Dividend Cafe. That verbiage makes it sound kind of boring, but really, I am just under-selling the excitement of what lies ahead for those who jump into this Dividend Cafe … You will not want to miss the drama and fun. Off we go Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/48s8IyG The violence was most felt in the bond market as yields rallied dramatically at the long end of the curve. As yields did not move much (or at all) in the short end of the curve, you saw a fair amount of inversion eroded. It is all a rate story now – as stocks are following bonds, not vice versa. QT is tightening, and high rates are tightening (with the bond market doing more of it for them). Something has to break eventually. The Bank of England also left its interest rate alone, pausing after 14 consecutive increases. The House GOP was four votes short of having the votes needed to advance their compromise funding bill. Some tweaks are in motion to allow for a new vote next week. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/44YX2Am The Fed basically was explicit in tying their “we need to stay restrictive” posture to the resilient economy (which, unfortunately to them, has been “expanding at a solid pace”). The market was up +200 points before the announcement and press conference, it dropped -100, rallied back +100, then dropped -150 (so still up over +50 points) before closing down -77 points (but with the Nasdaq down -1.53%). Bond yields at first barely moved but then the short end moved up five basis points and the long end flattish. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3LvZG9P Oil hit a ten-month high this morning. Bonds continue selling off as yields continue rallying. Japanese ownership of Treasuries increased by $7 billion on the month, while Chinese holdings decreased by $13 billion. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/44YIrFd Nothing like the Monday DCT with a great deal of stuff for you today about housing, policy, the economy, markets, and more! Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3r79obX Thursday afternoon I received an inquiry through the “questions” portal whereby a reader asked “how one is supposed to go about selecting a financial advisor” – attaching to the question the appropriate sub-questions around trust, qualifications, needs, and services. I know I have addressed this topic over the years but I think it has been at least five years if not longer, and it is a topic that you may be shocked to hear I have many opinions on. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3EGfov8 The European Central Bank (ECB) raised their rate to 4%, and bond yields FELL (go figure) – mostly because markets price in today what they believe about the future. Job hirings have slowed, but job firings have too. We live in interesting times. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/44MsGRn Today was a heavily anticipated news day for markets, with August CPI coming largely in line with expectations at .6% on headline inflation for the month and 3.7% year-over-year. As we had expected, higher energy prices moved that headline number, with gasoline specifically up 10.5%, which accounted for almost half of the total move higher in CPI. The Fed pays more attention to core CPI (ex food and energy), which was up .3% on the month and stands now at 4.3% y/y. All said, we got about what we had expected today: decreasing shelter costs offset a rise in energy prices to some degree, and Fed futures didn’t budge much. Yields were up a few basis points across most of the curve, and stocks held in. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3PExy76 Mexico has the strongest currency in the world this year. Its stock market is on fire (near the best in the world this year), It has overtaken China as the biggest supplier of goods to the United States (did you know that?). Direct investment from foreign countries into Mexico is up +40% in 2023 alone. Do you see why I refer to “near-shoring” as much as “on-shoring“? The diminishment of supply chain dependency on China in the United States is happening. But it may prove to be much more of a Mexico story than a Rust Belt story. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4680dH4 The first thing I will say before delving into this September 11 edition of DC Today as I sit here in New York City is that I honor those who were killed that day, and I will never, ever forget the atrocity that it was. I have written about this day in a very special Dividend Cafe before (I encourage you to re-read it), but regardless, whether it has been 22 years or when it is one day, 52 years, I will never, ever forget. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com