The Dividend Cafe

It has been a fascinating week in the markets, with oil tanking, but the energy sector way up; with the markets up and down every day; with some bond sectors rallying, and others selling off.  Some degree of non-correlation between asset classes seems to be sneaking back into play, and non-correlation is the hallmark of normalcy.  Now, we have a long, long way to go ...  but there were interesting green shoots this week in each But the various developments in the markets this week are not the full heart of Dividend Cafe this week.  The heart of this weekly commentary is how to think about portfolio balance right now, what diversification really means, and what government stimulus and Fed interventions do and do not mean for your portfolio. So shut down your Zoom, turn off your Netflix, and do your third walk of the dog for the day later.  And jump on in to the Dividend Cafe ... Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The week of April 6 was the biggest “up” week in markets on a percentage basis since 1974. Last week (with up and down volatility) was another solid up week, whereas some tempering of the prior week’s rally had been expected. Coming into this week, I certainly figured some tempering of the prior two weeks rally would not be surprising, and we dropped 500-600 points Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday’s 450 point increase cut into that, and now today the Dow ended up a tad, but had been up 300 points before seeing that fade. Futures were basically flat all night last night and stayed as such this morning from 3:15am until 5:30am when the weekly jobless claims number came. The number came in at 4.4 million, down from last week’s 5.5 million but in line with expectations, and futures went from down a bit to up 100. The market hit its high levels in the first couple hours of the day, and just slowly faded throughout the day. Energy and Alternative Asset Managers were the standouts today. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The market rallied quite a bit today, coming off of the two ~600 point down days that started the week. Oil prices were up 22% (from their very low level, mind you) and they are at least now only showing the June contract vs. the delivery/storage fiasco in the May contract that was taking place Monday and Tuesday. Futures were pointing to a 250-point increase when I woke up this morning, and throughout the day markets traded roughly between +250 and +500. The +450 close was off of the high of the day that came ten minutes before the close. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

We cover the market, the latest in health data, plenty on housing prices, the PPP Part Two stimulus program, and oil prices - plus more Links mentioned in this episode: CovidAndMarkets.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The week went essentially much as I expected in the markets – the health data continues to point towards marked improvement, but not quite yet a full re-opening; markets did not continue the violent rally of last week, but had some modest volatility both up and down; and the economic data from March was awful, with all eyes and ears focused on where we go from here. On the week, as of press time, the market is down a tiny bit on the week, but that comes with some decent sized up days and down days along the way (down 300, up 600, down 300, up 700). I am very excited about this week’s Dividend Cafe, and hope you will see why when you read it. • Is life about to change forever and ever? • Is a “new normal” coming, and what does it mean? • Will the next 12 months be a bear market or a bull market (from here)? • What really happened in March at the points of maximum market distress? • Long-term ramifications of this COVID-19 experience • And so much more So jump on in to the Dividend Cafe. I promise it will be a refreshing commentary on markets and the economy for investors who deserve better than the sensationalistic or self-serving garbage often posing as commentary. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Podcast will now add a Daily Covid and Markets reporting with the latest on the many aspects of the capital markets affected by COVID-19. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The market week is cut short by the Good Friday holiday this week, but investors liked what they received out of the four days markets were open. Monday represented one of the biggest up days in market history, and Wednesday and Thursday added to the rally, with the Dow now a stunning 5,500 points off its March 23 low level (which was itself an intra-day number). No, we do not know what equities will do next week, but we do know that the Federal Reserve gave markets a lot of news this week, and that will be the primary focus of the Dividend Cafe. But if you want to understand what it all means for the economy at-large, for housing, for bond investors, and for those just sort of wondering when our country is going to re-open, we invite you to jump into this week's very special Dividend Cafe. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

As I am taping Friday morning a short while into the final market session of the week, the market is nearly flat on the week (modestly down at this point). That came with a big move up Monday, a modest move down Tuesday, a huge move down Wednesday, a decent move up Thursday, and so far, early on Friday, a “flattish” day (though off a bit – again, moving as I type). Note the theme? A “flat” week in markets, but with huge volatility day by day by day. Why did markets go up 500 points the day the worst jobless claims data in history came out? Why did markets not tank on the news of the worst unemployment data in ten years? Because markets do not go down on news they already knew was coming. Period. I am confused by media and financial professionals who do not seem to understand this, but I take seriously my obligation to help you, readers of Dividend Cafe, understand this. Because markets are “discounting mechanisms,” pricing in today what they believe about tomorrow, “good news” cannot make markets rally unless it was not already expected, and “bad news” cannot make markets drop unless it, too, was not expected. And if you know someone who has not known that in the midst of this national shutdown, that jobs data was not atrociously bad, I really don’t know what to say. The key, my friends, is where we go from here, and that itself is riddled with uncertainty. So let’s unpack as much uncertainty as we can, and jump into a fruitful and useful Dividend Cafe. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

As of broadcast time, the market has moved significantly higher on the week, bouncing in a meaningful way Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday this week (after further sell-off Monday). As I record Friday morning, the market shows down (but it is early). We all know that we don’t know what the rest of the day (or weekend) will bring. This very special Dividend Cafe (long, but I think we all have extra reading time this weekend) attempts to combine a lot of investment application, macroeconomic commentary, and basic financial wisdom, into one trip to the Dividend Cafe. Jump on in. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The utter insanity of today's financial markets continued in Sunday evening futures action, Monday morning futures action, and throughout the day Monday. The largest Federal Reserve announcement yet came, and plenty needs to be said about the so-called "fiscal stimulus bazooka." Today's special Dividend Cafe provides as much explanation of these crazy times as we can muster, and offers yet more practical guidance on surviving the bear market we are presently enduring. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com