The Dividend Cafe

This week’s Dividend Cafe will do all it generally sets out to do.  We will look at the overall economy, and I even close with something I don’t often do: A summary of our short term, medium term, and long term outlooks.  There is quite a deep dive into the jobs data, the economic picture, the state of the U.S. energy industry, some post-COVID economic realities, and much, much more.  But there also is a sober assessment of something else – the human toll of non-productivity – the impact to joy and fulfillment when people are cut off from productive activity.  It is the heart of our tragic moment. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Happy “Flash Crash” anniversary, to those who remember that fateful day (ten years ago today). I remember it like it was yesterday, ending a meeting with clients early (who were sitting in my office facing me at the time, as I faced the television over their shoulders that was informing me of the collapsing market). I began trading in client accounts heavily after the prematurely-ended meeting, and for the first time in my life saw ETF’s broken, bid-ask spreads broken, and wild mistakes in trading execution. It was simply crazy, and only in the weeks (and to some degree, years) ahead did we really understand what had happened, how, and why. Today we don’t have a Flash Crash, and have not exactly had one since May 6, 2010. But we do have incredible risk around liquid ETF’s made up of illiquid assets. I need to attention this issue more diligently in the post-COVID months ahead. I am trying to “tighten up” the daily missive, and better organize/structure it each day around: • Health Data • Market Technicals • Public Policy • Oil & Energy • Housing • Fed News I am hoping this predictable, consistent sequence will both reflect the general priorities readers have in some way, and make for a more succinct and digestible read. And of course, I do welcome your feedback and suggestions … Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The market was up 300+ points most of the day today, and just as the sell-off faded yesterday, the rally faded today, with the market closing up 133 points (though the S&P was up 34 bps more than the Dow). Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Chief Investment Officer David L. Bahnsen answers questions from investors on markets and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

I learned a lot in the month of April as well, and I want to share it with you today.  I am either excited to tell you or sorry to tell you that this week's Dividend Cafe is the longest one I have ever written, but also the most important one I have ever written.  The length of it is just simply because of the sheer ambition of all I am trying to cover this week.  There are some investment opportunities that have been created out of these last two months that warrant the attention I have given them this week.  But there also are lessons learned and principles reinforced that I am excited to share. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

After the big move up the last two days, we closed the extraordinary month of April with a down-300 point day. Weekly jobless claims came in at 3.8 million, bringing the aggregate new unemployment claims since the COVID crisis began to ~30 million. Oil prices for the June contract were up ~$4 today (+25%), and are up ~$8 since Monday. April ends up being the biggest month up in the stock market since January 1987 (+11.1% for the Dow and +12.7% for the S&P). Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Bahnsen Group Investment Committee is back together for the first time in weeks to discuss all matters of the market, Covid, and investing. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The futures were pointing down 80-100 points without a lot of activity last night, yet by the early morning were pointing to a +300 point move higher. The market opened up ~400, bounced around throughout the day, and closed today down a tad. But the big tech companies were down 2-4% all day. But on the other hand, some key REIT’s, materials companies, energy names, and industrials were all up today. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The futures opened yesterday down a pinch and reflected a down 80 or so opening for a couple hours.  By the time I went to bed U.S. futures were pointing up 100, and more interestingly, the Nikkei was up over 400 points (see why below).  I woke up to the futures pointing up 200 points at 3:30am, and the June delivery contract on WTI oil down 17% to just over $14/barrel.  (The disconnect between short term oil futures and equities is a sight to behold). The market opened up ~100 points, and throughout the day traded up about +250 (most of the day).  Oil was down ~20% most of the day even as, once again, most energy stocks were higher.  Financial stocks were the huge leadership names today.  The Dow ended up closing +360 points, just off the highs of the day. Links mentioned in this episode: CovidAndMarkets.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Last week’s national video call brought to you podcast listeners in audio form - COVID, two market phases, and what to do from here. Watch the call and follow along with the slides here - https://youtu.be/pt-wO73Y8to Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com