The Dividend Cafe

The utter insanity of today's financial markets continued in Sunday evening futures action, Monday morning futures action, and throughout the day Monday. The largest Federal Reserve announcement yet came, and plenty needs to be said about the so-called "fiscal stimulus bazooka." Today's special Dividend Cafe provides as much explanation of these crazy times as we can muster, and offers yet more practical guidance on surviving the bear market we are presently enduring. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

There is a Friday Dividend Cafe coming – I do not know when – where the basic tone will be celebratory, and the underlying emotion will be relief. Some lift in equities, some normalization in credit, and some feeling that the worst is all behind us – that Dividend Cafe is coming. Will it be next week or months down the line? I do not know. But I look forward to writing it, and I imagine many of you look forward to reading it. This week is not that week, and I believe this week’s Dividend Cafe does as much to make sense of everything going on and where we are headed than anything I have written so far. I also do believe the national call we hosted on Tuesday remains current in explaining our outlook. In the meantime, the country as a whole, not just investors, remain in a period of uncertainty and challenge. And out of this uncertainty and challenge, I believe will come much better days. Let’s jump into the Dividend Cafe. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Join TBG Chief Investment Officer for a National Conference Call where he delves deep into the reasoning behind the massive moves in the markets over the last three weeks. Share it with your friends! Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

If one looks at the rapidity with which this market has sold off, the levels to which it has sold off, and the stressors that currently exist in our financial system and society at large, there is surely a lot of anxiety and uncertainty that permeates. This special Dividend Cafe will get into a handful of things that just simply must be said, offers a podcast from our Investment Committee, and addresses a lot of what is going on in the world that may help explain this crazy mess. Please, if you have time, join us in the Dividend Cafe … Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

It is so hard to stick to my normal Dividend Cafe format these days (not that anyone cares). I am trying to write two per week, and the markets are changing minutes after certain segments get written (or more challenging, the news itself alters or stories take on different shapes). On two days this week (Monday and Thursday) the violence of the market drops required additional email communications. Clients receive their special bulletin specific to portfolio holdings on Wednesday, as well. The state of affairs now makes the exact timing and precision of these communications difficult. We hope you understand. I set it up that way because there are things in flux right now as I type that by the time I submit to my team may change, and by the time you read this may change again. I apologize for that. But that is the state of affairs in which we find ourselves. My feeling is that the market this week went through a Black Monday type day (October 1987). On that fateful day we dropped 22.6% in one day (and it did rebound 6% the next day). This week, going into Friday morning the market is down 18% in four days (and as I sit here in type from a Starbucks on 47th Street at 5:30am eastern, the market looks set to open up 5%). So while the violence was four days, not one, and 23% is a lot more than 18%, there is still the same feeling of shock and horror and the rapidity with which this all happened. I am dedicating this week’s Dividend Cafe to what happened this week, what has to happen from here for markets to (a) normalize, (b) begin recovery, and (c) finish recovery. It is a long one, but hopefully easy to read and useful to your understanding and thinking about this crisis. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

*Please go to dividendcafe.com to read this important post** I wrote an awful lot of stuff over the weekend for this special mid-week Dividend Cafe.  I wrote about the bizarre reality that with three days last week that the market was down nearly 1,000 points (Friday's was intra-day, but it did come back at the end of the day), the market was actually up 450 points last week.  I wrote about various peripheral economic and market realities that I thought useful in the fuller context of the current state of affairs.  And then Monday happened, and I have spent the 3 am - 6 am hours of Tuesday morning re-writing the entire thing. I hesitate to even mention that as I type, the market futures are pointing to a 650+ point jump in the market (it had been a lot more).  First of all, that is just a small part of yesterday's collapse, and secondly, by the time I am done typing this paragraph, let alone by the time you are done reading it, the possibility of reversal or adjustment is extremely high.  These are the times in which we find ourselves. You should have received my bulletin last night on the 11th worst market day in history that was Monday (and the worst day since the financial crisis).  I stand behind every word written yesterday afternoon and will be reiterating much of it in this Dividend Cafe.  But I really want to dive deeper into the oil saga playing out with Saudi and Russia, and I really want to unpack more of the economic ramifications of the present hysteria.  That is what this Dividend Cafe will be devoted to - a bit more meat on the bone, none of which is meant to take away from the fundamental behavioral lessons I am desperately trying to reaffirm in all communications right now. So jump on into this special Dividend Cafe Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

It's FRIDAY, MARCH 6 - The markets were down over 800 points early but right at this moment are down 650 points.  I have no doubt markets will move from here, and I have no idea which direction.  Big moves, in either direction, are the daily expectation right now. This week’s Dividend Cafe offers as much information, guidance, and reality as we are able to muster.  Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Our Investment Committee's weekly podcast today basically delves into all things market correction, market snap-back rally, coronavirus, and the political landscape shift of the weekend. An important listen in these volatile times. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The market ended the month of February with a level of pain in the markets not seen since December of 2018 (fourteen months ago). As of press time Friday morning we have experienced sell-offs every day this week, creating the worst week for markets since the financial crisis. The details are unpacked in the Dividend Cafe … The level of sell-off in the market is discussed but so are a variety of circumstances around it that very much warrant additional analysis. I made the decision this Friday morning to ditch literally pages of commentary and analysis I wrote over the last few days and just write afresh straight from the heart on all that is going on. Please click through and read. This is not a Dividend Cafe to miss. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The ongoing spread of coronavirus and uncertainty surrounding such pushed markets down a thousand points on the Dow (as of press time), and brought the ten-year bond yield to very near an all-time low. This 3%+ drop in stocks brings the equity market to where it was at the beginning of the year. Bond values continue to surge, offsetting much of the equity value drop for diversified investors. In this special edition podcast our Investment Committee unpacks what is happening, why, what it means, what it doesn’t mean, and what we are doing (and not doing) about it. We also reiterate our theme of illiquidity-investments for 2020, and shout from the mountaintops the message that we are owners of business, not speculators in the stock market. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com