Flirting with Models

Clayton Gillespie, VP at Deutsche Bank, talks about reconciling quant and fundamental perspectives in investing, incorporating survey insights into strategies, understanding regime changes, trade-offs between fundamental and statistical factors, managing risk and improving alpha signals, sticking with the factor premium, and the intersection of philanthropy and quantitative analysis.

Hari Krishnan, Head of Volatility Strategies at SCT Capital, explores developing a low carry hedge for a commodity bull market by understanding market positioning, price impacts, perishability, and seasonality. The podcast discusses depressed commodities, producers' incentives, return skewness, fundamental analysis, liquidity constraints, and low-cost, high-convexity strategies in futures and options markets.

Nick Baltas, managing director at Goldman Sachs, discusses using systematic strategies to solve asset owner problems, his research on cross-asset skewness and implementing a skewness strategy. He also shares insights on building multi-strategy portfolios and meeting client needs.

Bin Ren, founder of SigTech, discusses the design of a state-of-the-art backtesting engine and the integration of large language models into the process. Topics include modular design, strategy definition, coupling engine with data, challenges of incorporating alternative and unstructured data, understanding query and making API calls, implications of large language models in programming languages, and contrasting cultural reactions to AI.

Charles McGarraugh, CIO of Altis Partners, discusses their investment stack, comprising an upstream signal layer and a downstream strategy layer. They explore the benefits and drawbacks of this design, the operation of the signal layer, the need for adaptiveness in a rapidly changing world, integrating alternative data in market prediction, portfolio construction and risk management, and their fascination with asset duration and expectations formation.

Andrew Beer from DBi and Adam Butler from ReSolve Asset Management discuss the replication of managed futures strategies. They explore return-based and process-based replication, selecting markets for diversification, and the challenges of derisking and top-down investing. They also discuss the implementation process for replicating an index and achieving broad-based exposure to the hedge fund industry. Overall, they highlight the potential benefits and cost-effectiveness of replication in investment portfolios.

Dean Curnutt, founder of Macro Risk Advisors, discusses the nature of risk in markets, touching on various crises, reflexivity, risk recycling, and the evolving role of the Fed. They explore the 1987 stock market crash, Long-Term Capital Management, the 2008 Financial Crisis, the XIV implosion of 2018, and the 2020 COVID crisis. This episode is a must-listen for risk-focused individuals and those interested in market dynamics.

Gerald Rushton, senior member of the QIS Structuring team at Macquarie Bank, shares insights on commodity strategies, including trend following, commodity carry, congestion, and volatility carry. He discusses the advantages of QIS desks, customization of mandates for clients, and the importance of understanding different types of trend following strategies. He also delves into commodity congestion strategies, the potential returns they offer, and the decision to use the death card as a symbol for quant investing.

On their 15th anniversary, the speaker reflects on their unexpected journey from starting the company in undergrad to its success. They share 15 lessons learned in the financial industry, including risk transformation, diversification, and the challenges of drawdowns and backtesting. They also discuss the importance of diversification in investment portfolios and the nature of backtesting.

My guest is Devin Anderson, co-founder of Convexitas.The theme of this episode, as you can likely guess from the title, is strategy versus structure. While we often focus on strategy specifics on this podcast, Devin hosts a masterclass as to why the structure you wrap your strategy in can ultimately determine the type of strategy you can deliver.Specifically, we discuss option-based tail hedging and the types of strategies that can be delivered in hedge fund, mutual fund, ETF, and separate account wrappers.In the back half of the conversation, we dive into how Convexitas implements their risk mitigating strategies. Specifically, Devin explains why Convexitas focuses on convexity with respect to the S&P 500 and actually refuses to customize this mandate, despite having the ability to do so at scale.Finally, we end the conversation on a bit of a spicier note, where Devin explains why most market pundits overstate the influence large, scheduled derivative rolls might have on the underlying market.Please enjoy my conversation with Devin Anderson.