On their 15th anniversary, the speaker reflects on their unexpected journey from starting the company in undergrad to its success. They share 15 lessons learned in the financial industry, including risk transformation, diversification, and the challenges of drawdowns and backtesting. They also discuss the importance of diversification in investment portfolios and the nature of backtesting.
Diversification spreads risk across different types, making portfolios sensitive to a wider range of risks, but less sensitive to any specific risk.
Investment strategies involving higher risk, like value investing, offer higher returns, but require resilience during periods of underperformance to maintain the risk premium.
Deep dives
Risk cannot be destroyed, only transformed
Risk is an essential part of financial markets, driving pricing and the transfer of risk. Diversifying a portfolio does not eliminate risk but rather spreads it across different types of risks. This means that portfolios become sensitive to a wider range of risks, but less sensitive to any specific risk.
No pain, no premium
Investors are compensated for taking on risk in the long run. Investment strategies that involve higher risk, such as value investing, are expected to provide higher returns. To prevent these strategies from becoming overcrowded and eroding the risk premium, they need to be difficult to stick with and require resilience during periods of underperformance.
Diversifying cheap beta is valuable
Introducing a new source of diversifying beta to a portfolio can be more fruitful and inexpensive than trying to find alpha. Beta, which drives the majority of portfolio returns over the long run, provides a higher degree of confidence in risk premiums compared to alpha strategies. It is important to exhaust beta sources before seeking novel sources of alpha.
Diversification has multiple forms
Diversification is not limited to spreading investments across different assets or securities. It also encompasses diversifying the investment process (how) and the timings of rebalancing (when). To truly diversify a portfolio's risks, investors should consider diversification across what, how, and when they invest.
Today, August 28th, 2023, my company Newfound Research turns 15. It feels kind of absurd saying that. I know I’ve told this story before, but I never actually expected this company to turn into anything. I started the company while I was still in undergrad and I named it Newfound Research after a lake my family used to visit in New Hampshire. I fully expected the company to be shut down within a year and just go on to a career on Wall Street.
But here we are, 15 years later. I’m not sure why, but this milestone feels larger than any recent birthday I can remember. I’m so incredibly grateful for what this company has given me. I’m grateful to my business partner, Tom. I’m grateful to employees – both past and present – who dedicated part of their lives and careers to work here. I’m grateful to our clients who supported this business. I’m grateful for all the friends in the industry that I’ve made. And I’m grateful to people like you who have given me a bit of a platform to explore the ideas I’m passionate about.
Coming up on this anniversary, I reflected quite a bit on my career. And one of the things I thought about was all the lessons I’ve learned over the years. And I thought that a fun way to celebrate would be to take the time and write down some of those ideas and lessons that have come to influence my thinking.
So, without further ado, here are 15 lessons, ideas, and frameworks from 15 years.
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